by78
General
10 carriers by 2035 remains a fanboy fantasy.
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10 carriers by 2035 remains a fanboy fantasy.
by78
General
His wording is very imprecise. The year 2035 is only directly stated by media reports, which he indirectly paraphrased. If he understood the reports of 6 carriers by 2035 to mean no more carriers after 2035, meaning China will stop at 6 carriers, then his 10-carrier count would indicate a more general plan with no definitively stated timeline.
I would approach 2035 with caution, even if not all 10 are to be combat ready by that time. Seven more carriers in 15 years is not impossible, but they have to be manned and provisioned with fighters, UCAVs, helicopters, along with all the necessary logistical and training support on the backend. Building them at such a rapid clip is the easy part, and also no plan is set in stone.
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I think his post does have some potentially very useful granules of information but it has to be interpreted carefully.
He directly references the media reports of "six carriers by 2035" (probably one of the recent articles from SCMP lol), and he speaks derisively of that specific prediction.
The fact that he mentions the 2035 date specifically, which conveys that he thinks that number (6 carrierse) by 2035 is a low-ball.
OTOH, when he mentions 10+carriers, he doesn't give a specific date but rather talks about it like that is the number the PLAN is aiming for.
Based on that post and the way in which he phrases the salient points, I would argue that we can operate somewhat confidently with the idea that pop3 himself at least believes that 2035 may see the PLAN have more than only 6 carriers.
However, what actual specific number they have come 2035 is another matter, and whether it is 10 or 9 or 8 or 7 is anyone's guess.
Obviously the high end of that interpretation (10 carriers by 2035) is rather eyebrow raising -- but as you said, it's not impossible. And it goes without saying that 10 carriers by 2035 means there would inevitably have to be a certain pace of procurement of other relevant assets and subsystems at a similar pace as well. And given we know that the PLA is hardly going to be putting all of their eggs into the Navy's carrier force, if they do pursue 10 carriers by 2035 then that has even more consequences for just what kind of scale or procurement the PLA overall would be doing as a whole.
So cautiously I wouldn't call 10 carriers by 2035 a fanboy fantasy, but it's definitely a "goal" that needs to be treated carefully with the due respect for understanding of the systemic implications for PLA procurement it implies.
asif iqbal
Lieutenant General
I think 6 carries before 2030 is very possible if not inevitable
004 starts at Dalian after 003 is done at JNCX next year
that would mean 004 is launched around 2022-23
then JNCX starts on CVN 005 around same time
DL starts CVN 006 after it launches 004
post 2025 both CVN are under build and launch before 2030
off course operational deployment would be some time away
2 x STOBAR
2 x CATOBAR conventional
2x CVN
004 starts at Dalian after 003 is done at JNCX next year
that would mean 004 is launched around 2022-23
then JNCX starts on CVN 005 around same time
DL starts CVN 006 after it launches 004
post 2025 both CVN are under build and launch before 2030
off course operational deployment would be some time away
2 x STOBAR
2 x CATOBAR conventional
2x CVN
076 isn't an aricraft carrier. No serious Chinese military watchers would consider counting class 076 as aircraft carrier. All respectful big shrimps adhere to certain classifications, and it should go without saying.
Almost definitely not lol.
076 is being described as an amphibious assault ship, not a carrier.
Add another 6 DDGs for each CV group, they will need to crank out another 60 modern DDGs. That would be about 4 per year by 2035.
lcloo
Captain
Any Chinese Navy ships with numerical designation of Type 07X are amphibious warfare ships. Type 071, 072, 073, 074 and 075 are all in this classification. Type 076 will not be an exception.