PLAAF JH-XX / H-X bomber project


Richard Santos

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I'm not sure what you define as "excessive secrecy", so I won't belabour the relative perceptions of that

My point is that we should find it doubtful that the model and the magazine cover depicts the true details of the real design, because it would be inconsistent with the past practice of the PLA.

Whether that is "excessively secret" by your standards, I don't know.

But either way, we should be doubtful that they depict the true final design.


As I've written multiple times, at best they are non official educated guesses.
excessive secrecy is the sort of secrecy that in the end hurt you own long term position more than it hinders your opponent’s planning.
 

Bltizo

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excessive secrecy is the sort of secrecy that in the end hurt you own long term position more than it hinders your opponent’s planning.

... Okay I'm not sure if we are talking past each other or something.

I will just reiterate my previous point: "I find it very, very suspect and doubtful that the PLA would allow the real configuration of the H-20 to be released either via modern weaponry or via a picture of a model."

This is consistent with past PLA practice.
 

Richard Santos

Senior Member
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We know the Chinese intended for the H 20 program to be no surprise when actual hardware sees the light of the day.

There are two ways to do this.

One is to release teasers through official or semi-official sources. This they have already done, in the form of an elaborately staged photo apparently showing iH 20 sitting primly under the cover of a canvas. From this you can tell it is a stealthy flying wing of considerable size, but not much else.

The second approach is to leak things to unofficial sources and Then let them run with the information. There is in both the release of information, and a deniability.

If the model is shown above is a good representation all of the Chinese Stealth bomber, it might be assumed this was not the primary source of the leak. She was not the leaker. she was the receiver of leaked information.
 

Bltizo

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We know the Chinese intended for the H 20 program to be no surprise when actual hardware sees the light of the day.

There are two ways to do this.

One is to release teasers through official or semi-official sources. This they have already done, in the form of an elaborately staged photo apparently showing iH 20 sitting primly under the cover of a canvas. From this you can tell it is a stealthy flying wing of considerable size, but not much else.

The second approach is to leak things to unofficial sources and Then let them run with the information. There is in both the release of information, and a deniability.

If the model is shown above is a good representation all of the Chinese Stealth bomber, it might be assumed this was not the primary source of the leak. She was not the leaker. she was the receiver of leaked information.

"If".

That is my entire point.

Based on past PLA practice, there is no reason for us to believe that the aircraft depicted model/magazine cover shows the details of the true final design, rather than just being a non-official educated guess, based off rumours and leaks.


We had dozens of depictions of different CGIs and speculative models for J-20 in the mid to late 2000s (when it was still known as J-XX), all of which were educated guesses.
Some of them came close, but that was all they were -- educated guesses, based off rumours and leaks.



So why would you think it would be different for H-20? Why do you think the PLA would allow the specific true design of the aircraft to be revealed to this level of detail as depicted by the model and the magazine?
Because what you're suggesting is a massive departure from their practice.

There is a difference between hinting at the general role and configuration of a new aircraft.
It is something else to provide images or models of a new aircraft revealing specific planform and alignment angles, engine placement, and proportions, and details of moving parts (weapons bay doors, landing gear doors, or folding tails if any), cockpit size and canopy geometry etc.
 

Richard Santos

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Because China would probably like to be able to use unofficial channels to disseminate credible information but do so in a manner that is deniable. To make this work it has to establish a track record that significant proportion of unofficially “rumors” can be quite precise and accurate. Otherwise such channels would be nullified because what comes through them will all be dismissed by its intended audience as groundless guesswork.
 

Deino

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Inside sources have confirmed that this is a model of the H-22(L-T) This is a proposed PLANAF bomber that is intended to fly long-duration patrols in the SCS, taking-off from SCS islands and flying exclusively in Left-Turning circles (hence the shorter left wing).


Pardon, but in sentence „inside sources“ and „model of H-22 … a proposed PLANAF bomber“ sounds too much like a typical Minnie Chan report.

So far neither - at least by my knowledge - a new naval bomber nor the number H-22 was ever mentioned … so how could some unknown insiders „confirm“ anything that was not even mentioned before?
 

Bltizo

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Because China would probably like to be able to use unofficial channels to disseminate credible information but do so in a manner that is deniable. To make this work it has to establish a track record that significant proportion of unofficially “rumors” can be quite precise and accurate. Otherwise such channels would be nullified because what comes through them will all be dismissed by its intended audience as groundless guesswork.

We already have credible information about H-20 in a way that is similar to our past credible information we had on things like J-20, 055, 003, etc before their reveals.
We know H-20 will almost certainly:
- be subsonic, stealthy
- have a flying wing configuration
- have four engines, non-AB

That is all information we've gained from the usual channels that we have concluded.


However, what is abnormal is believing that the PLA would reveal the detailed design and configuration of the aircraft in the way depicted in the model/magazine, because that goes against every past (or indeed current) practice of secrecy and revealing controlled information.
So let me ask you again -- on what reasonable basis do you think that the aircraft depicted in the model/magazine reflects the true detailed design/configuration of the real aircraft?
 

daifo

Junior Member
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Pardon, but in sentence „inside sources“ and „model of H-22 … a proposed PLANAF bomber“ sounds too much like a typical Minnie Chan report.

So far neither - at least by my knowledge - a new naval bomber nor the number H-22 was ever mentioned … so how could some unknown insiders „confirm“ anything that was not even mentioned before?
I think its a joke/sarcastic post -> " flying exclusively in Left-Turning circles (hence the shorter left wing)."
 

james smith esq

Junior Member
Registered Member
Pardon, but in sentence „inside sources“ and „model of H-22 … a proposed PLANAF bomber“ sounds too much like a typical Minnie Chan report.

So far neither - at least by my knowledge - a new naval bomber nor the number H-22 was ever mentioned … so how could some unknown insiders „confirm“ anything that was not even mentioned before?
You really didn’t see that that post was completely facetious???
H-22(L-T) for Left-turn?
Maybe I should have written “expert Indian military sources have confirmed”.

Also, why didn’t you tell us that you have a family member that’s a champion pro boxer?
From ESPN boxing schedule:

July 17: Germany​

  • Tina Rupprecht vs. Katia Gutierrez, 10 rounds, for Rupprecht's WBC women's strawweight title
 
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