That's erroring on the side of too many predictions, not to few. We should look at cases where there were no guesses and something appearedI think people put too much faith into PLA watchers in China. First of all, reliable information has been scarce ever since military reform in 2016. They built higher walls and better security around air field facilities and photos/videos that do get released are either official or semi-official. Second of all, big shrimps were hit or miss even before tightened security. For every J-20, Type 055, or FC-31 there is also a JH-7B, Chinese Su-34, or stealthified flanker. There is a lot of confirmation bias at work here.