PLAAF JH-XX / H-X bomber project


ougoah

Major
Registered Member
My position isn't that of "yes LRIP by 2023 for H-20" but pointing out your fallacious reasoning Deino. That's all. I am happily saying you may be proven right but there is no way you are definitely right.
 

latenlazy

Colonel
To think the H-20 could "be ready for service and LRIP in 2023 is" simply UNbelievable!
I think it’s somewhat possible just because the FCS system for a bomber is probably a lot simpler, especially since a lot of work seems to have already been done on flying wings, so they would need to spend less time doing flight testing, which is probably the most time intensive aspect of development. That said, possible is not the same thing as possible. I suppose we shall see...
 

Bltizo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
The way I think about this is since it's NOT impossible for the CCP and PLA to have totally shrouded this project for the entire duration of its development phase including prototyping and test flights (you surely have to concede this possibility), therefore it is also NOT impossible for LRIP in 2023 (I don't know or even think this since that was a rumour after all and this H-20 topic is riddled with bad hints and rumours for years). Let's just play with that rumour and assume it's relatively official but ambiguous with wording on status.

Your entire argument on impossible and unbelievable rests upon the assumption that prototypes and test flights must be revealed years and years and years before LRIP. I agree that such things surely take place many years before LRIP and service but China's ASAT, nuclear program, AShBM, hypersonic weapons, to mention a few end platform projects, did not get their prototypes revealed at all. The AShBM and hypersonic weapons were observed by other nations through sea and space based sensors, over horizon radars etc but none of them were photographed, announced, or disclosed in writing before deployment and even then, probably some time after deployment. The naval railgun project's prototype was revealed years before completion. But all that means is we have precedent for both styles.

When it comes to H-20, it isn't simply announcing and showing prototypes of a new rifle being evaluated. It's a stealth strategic bomber with immense military and political implications and consequences. The further up this sensitivity chain, the more reason there is to hide such a program and only publicly reveal later rather than sooner.

Americans did not reveal B-2 until well after service. Same with the SR-71, stealth blackhawk, F-117. But there are also some prototypes and evaluation projects that were revealed like Comanche attack helicopter prototype and project, X-47B and so on.

These rumours are pretty questionable but it's certainly not impossible for H-20 to be in service and LRIP in 2023. So your reasoning on impossible with comparison to J-20 is throughly fallacious. But it must be said that your position itself may not be wrong! there is a distinction here! Not impossible also does NOT mean you are wrong. Can't stress this point enough.

Maybe language is a barrier here but basically I mean it's possible (but certainly questionable) that the the government and PLA (and of course XAC/AVIC) have hidden the entire prototype and testing phase like the equivalent of J-20 from 2009 to 2015 or so. That entire chunk has already happened just without all the wall climber photos and intentional reveals commissioned and planned by CCP. They can plan reveals and they can plan a hidden project.

I think if we use the word "possible" as being "greater than 0%" then sure, I agree with you.

However, I do not believe it is possible that the development and testing of H-20 could have been hidden for years before an "unveiling".


Essentially, the likelihood of what you're suggesting is above zero, but it is still so low that it is almost not worth consideration and is arguably a disservice and misleading to say it is "possible".
A better description would be "overwhelmingly unlikely".
 

ougoah

Major
Registered Member
I think if we use the word "possible" as being "greater than 0%" then sure, I agree with you.

However, I do not believe it is possible that the development and testing of H-20 could have been hidden for years before an "unveiling".


Essentially, the likelihood of what you're suggesting is above zero, but it is still so low that it is almost not worth consideration and is arguably a disservice and misleading to say it is "possible".
A better description would be "overwhelmingly unlikely".

Well against what Deino said, that is exactly what I mean since he's essentially saying it is 0% probability.

This whole thing is based on a rumour from questionable source. In any case I personally hold the opinion that a 2023 H-20 unveiling as extremely close to or pretty much in LRIP/service as somewhere between overwhelmingly unlikely and a coin toss.
 

Bltizo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Well against what Deino said, that is exactly what I mean since he's essentially saying it is 0% probability.

This whole thing is based on a rumour from questionable source. In any case I personally hold the opinion that a 2023 H-20 unveiling as extremely close to or pretty much in LRIP/service as somewhere between overwhelmingly unlikely and a coin toss.

I agree with Deino -- it is "essentially 0% probability".
It may not be zero, but it can be 0.00000 recurring 1 %, and it technically would still be "possible".
But it is "essentially" 0% possible.


For the purposes of our discussion, the idea of H-20 being in LRIP by 2023 is very overwhelmingly unlikely at this point such that it is essentially not possible. Unless something significant happens like H-20 emerges before the end of this year, I simply do not see it happening.

The difference between H-20 and something like J-35/J-XY, is that the latter has a bunch of stars aligning saying it will likely emerge this year. For H-20 we have yet to hear anything like that.


If the situation changes, expectations can be adjusted accordingly.
 

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Well against what Deino said, that is exactly what I mean since he's essentially saying it is 0% probability.

This whole thing is based on a rumour from questionable source. In any case I personally hold the opinion that a 2023 H-20 unveiling as extremely close to or pretty much in LRIP/service as somewhere between overwhelmingly unlikely and a coin toss.


So in this essence you are trying to find a slightest possibility by semantics, not by facts, at least facts that I rate per your definition as "fallacious reasoning".

Do you realy believe that XAC and the PLAAF were able to hide a stealth bomber for years from roll out at XAC Xi'an-Yanliang to maiden flight and the whole test-flight campaign until today, so that the H-20 could be ready for operational service and LRIP by 2023?!!

IMO this chance greater than 0% is simply neglectable and as such it is IMPOSSIBLE.

In fact I rate this quote "your fallacious reasoning" a direct personnel insult and I don't understand what's the reason for this offence or this stupid discussion! :mad:
 

ougoah

Major
Registered Member
Well perhaps I've ignored this thread for some time and missed the depth of developments but I've seen absolutely nothing to suggest what both of you are saying - 0.000000001% probability of LRIP by end of 2023. I don't understand the sensitivity over such a trivial thing since I've already explained that there is a history of prototypes and tests being performed and completed outside of public view and even CCP hinting. So why exactly is H-20 development having been hidden so unfathomable? Again I'm saying it's between very low chance and a coin toss. A coin toss is significant.

I feel I've stepped on some nerves without the intention of doing so and will leave this at that. These are just opinions on a rumour. No need to get angry since I haven't delivered it with arrogance and have mentioned plenty of concessions.

I get you two have your reputations to uphold and part of that is to err on the side of being conservative with these sorts of things. But just the one thing worth noting with this. The CCP has never hyped up a not even ready prototype for years before the prototype is even unveiled. It's so contrary to the norm.
 
Last edited:

Xsizor

Senior Member
Registered Member
Do we know the total number slated to be procured?
If we don't know whats the total number procured of H-20 type, then how can we comment on LRIP and such.

It depends on the cost of the aircraft. Even 10 is too potent a fleet.

US has maintained a fleet of 10 Spirits and made do with it on operations for 20 years.
 

ougoah

Major
Registered Member
Do we know the total number slated to be procured?
If we don't know whats the total number procured of H-20 type, then how can we comment on LRIP and such.

It depends on the cost of the aircraft. Even 10 is too potent a fleet.

US has maintained a fleet of 10 Spirits and made do with it on operations for 20 years.

LRIP referring to initial serial production before the manufacturing problems are smoothed out and optimised.
 

Top