I will just interpret that "2021, we are awaiting.." as the general mood of Chinese people, including the CCTV7 anchor persons. Yes, everyone is waiting, but do the CCTV7 anchor persons have the privilege of high level information? We don't know that, and personally I believe they do not have such entitlement. ( I watched CCTV7 almost everyday).View attachment 67515
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I'm just curious. In this video, it show 2 items draped in red, an auspicious Chinese color. 2021 我们期待.... can be translated to "2021 We await...". The items clearly refer to the Type 003 flatdeck and the H20 bomber. Can we read anything into this 2021 mention? This video is from the official military channel of CCTV. 26:12 in the video.
H20 to be ready for service and LRIP in 2023 is believable or do they mean flying prototypes? That would mean service about half a decade after 2023. Too much fanfare and leaks for the latter so I think this source means to reach service by 2023.
To think the H-20 could "be ready for service and LRIP in 2023 is" simply UNbelievable!
Not unbelievable or impossible. Why? quite simply because we have zero idea about this program except for the constant referencing and teasing.
I said it's possible for service and LRIP in 2023. I didn't say that was a sure thing. So explain why it's surely unbelievable?
The reason I said it's possible is because the only clues we have are the constant referencing for showing it off 2020/2021. Now this might be showing off the first prototype where the program is no more ahead than the prototype itself. Or showing a flight test again where the program is up to only flight testing. As opposed to for example releasing years old footage and years old prototype/s.
Consider the timeframes and how unlike the CCP it is to hint at mere prototypes and preliminary development phases half a decade earlier than the prototypes/flight tests appear. They've never done that with any platform. We've been getting leaks of a stealth bomber H-20 program since 2017 as simple hints that such program/s exist. Until 2020 there are official overt suggestions and even officially released details (flying wing, stealth, strategic range) since 2019. There's never been a military program of any level of sensitivity in China where the platform was hyped up with anything comparable while the platform itself remains "only" in prototyping/test flight phase. And this isn't even saying 2021, hinting at prototype reveal that's years away? No if and when the CCP gives such ample hinting for so long, the program is far more ready.
The J-20 prototype wasn't announced in 2005. The opposite happened with the J-20. The official "leaks" said that China was NOT developing a 5th gen fighter and constantly talked about how difficult and massive a task such a project is. Probably in the hopes of letting the adversary underestimate China's capability level then and how developed the real J-20 program already was. The prototype wasn't announced or even hinted at. Yes we know there were very small voiced leaks that competition between SAC and CAC exists for 5th gen fighter and a set of artist impressions. One of triplane (SAC) and one that resembles a fattened up F-22. Those were both quite inaccurate except for the fact SAC indeed developed a triplane to unknown degree.
So unbelievable and impossible for LRIP in 2023 cannot be said with an iota of confidence even if it may well end up being the truth. We just don't have enough info to know except for how we extrapolate patterns from the past to determine what's more likely.
Maybe I'm now in confusion due to my English, but having the H-20 ready "for service and LRIP in 2023" is plain IMPOSSIBLE and as such UNBELIEVABLE!
We haven't even seen a prototype, nor has it flown and now you suggest - if I get your post correct - to assume the H-20 could be ready "for service and LRIP in 2023" is possible?
How? Even for the J-20 - and in fact a stealth bomber is a very different beast - they needed 7 years from maiden flight to service entry; so how do you think being ready "for service and LRIP in 2023" should be possible?