PLAAF JH-XX / H-X bomber project


Appix

Junior Member
Registered Member
Fake or what is this?
 

davidau

Junior Member
Registered Member
Surely photo-shopped. It doesn't even fit in the hanger/building.
Have you thought that the hanger may be elsewhere? Why should this plane must be positioned in front of the hanger? Could it be a workshop to fine tune every part of this super-monster?
 

Crang

Senior Member
Registered Member
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Untitled1212.jpg


I'm just curious. In this video, it show 2 items draped in red, an auspicious Chinese color. 2021 我们期待.... can be translated to "2021 We await...". The items clearly refer to the Type 003 flatdeck and the H20 bomber. Can we read anything into this 2021 mention? This video is from the official military channel of CCTV. 26:12 in the video.
 

lcloo

Junior Member
View attachment 67515

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I'm just curious. In this video, it show 2 items draped in red, an auspicious Chinese color. 2021 我们期待.... can be translated to "2021 We await...". The items clearly refer to the Type 003 flatdeck and the H20 bomber. Can we read anything into this 2021 mention? This video is from the official military channel of CCTV. 26:12 in the video.
I will just interpret that "2021, we are awaiting.." as the general mood of Chinese people, including the CCTV7 anchor persons. Yes, everyone is waiting, but do the CCTV7 anchor persons have the privilege of high level information? We don't know that, and personally I believe they do not have such entitlement. ( I watched CCTV7 almost everyday).

H20 is now rumoured to be having its first flight scheduled in 2023. Rumour also has it that H20's flight control system design will be completed this year.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
From
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就几句话:20,给的任务节点是23年收费,航电系统目前刚刚完成设计。
海四很快了,某霍伊的造价是黑丝的四分之一,因为海军没钱了,海军的钱呢?下饺子去了。
彩虹五比想象中便宜太多。所有东西算下来一套不到一千。

Summary:
  • H-20 is likely to fly in 2023
  • The avionics of the H-20 has just finished development
  • The J-XY will be here very soon
  • The cost of the J-XY is 1/4 that of the J-20 (doubtful, IMHO)
  • The CH-5 drone is very cheap. Its price is <1000 (not sure what currency/unit)
Not sure how credible this person is, so, as usual, take it with a spoonful of salt.
 

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
H20 to be ready for service and LRIP in 2023 is believable or do they mean flying prototypes? That would mean service about half a decade after 2023. Too much fanfare and leaks for the latter so I think this source means to reach service by 2023.
..


To think the H-20 could "be ready for service and LRIP in 2023 is" simply UNbelievable!
 

ougoah

Major
Registered Member
To think the H-20 could "be ready for service and LRIP in 2023 is" simply UNbelievable!

Not unbelievable or impossible. Why? quite simply because we have zero idea about this program except for the constant referencing and teasing.

I said it's possible for service and LRIP in 2023. I didn't say that was a sure thing. So explain why it's surely unbelievable?

The reason I said it's possible is because the only clues we have are the constant referencing for showing it off 2020/2021. Now this might be showing off the first prototype where the program is no more ahead than the prototype itself. Or showing a flight test again where the program is up to only flight testing. As opposed to for example releasing years old footage and years old prototype/s.

Consider the timeframes and how unlike the CCP it is to hint at mere prototypes and preliminary development phases half a decade earlier than the prototypes/flight tests appear. They've never done that with any platform. We've been getting leaks of a stealth bomber H-20 program since 2017 as simple hints that such program/s exist. Until 2020 there are official overt suggestions and even officially released details (flying wing, stealth, strategic range) since 2019. There's never been a military program of any level of sensitivity in China where the platform was hyped up with anything comparable while the platform itself remains "only" in prototyping/test flight phase. And this isn't even saying 2021, hinting at prototype reveal that's years away? No if and when the CCP gives such ample hinting for so long, the program is far more ready.

The J-20 prototype wasn't announced in 2005. The opposite happened with the J-20. The official "leaks" said that China was NOT developing a 5th gen fighter and constantly talked about how difficult and massive a task such a project is. Probably in the hopes of letting the adversary underestimate China's capability level then and how developed the real J-20 program already was. The prototype wasn't announced or even hinted at. Yes we know there were very small voiced leaks that competition between SAC and CAC exists for 5th gen fighter and a set of artist impressions. One of triplane (SAC) and one that resembles a fattened up F-22. Those were both quite inaccurate except for the fact SAC indeed developed a triplane to unknown degree.

So unbelievable and impossible for LRIP in 2023 cannot be said with an iota of confidence even if it may well end up being the truth. We just don't have enough info to know except for how we extrapolate patterns from the past to determine what's more likely.
 

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Not unbelievable or impossible. Why? quite simply because we have zero idea about this program except for the constant referencing and teasing.

I said it's possible for service and LRIP in 2023. I didn't say that was a sure thing. So explain why it's surely unbelievable?

The reason I said it's possible is because the only clues we have are the constant referencing for showing it off 2020/2021. Now this might be showing off the first prototype where the program is no more ahead than the prototype itself. Or showing a flight test again where the program is up to only flight testing. As opposed to for example releasing years old footage and years old prototype/s.

Consider the timeframes and how unlike the CCP it is to hint at mere prototypes and preliminary development phases half a decade earlier than the prototypes/flight tests appear. They've never done that with any platform. We've been getting leaks of a stealth bomber H-20 program since 2017 as simple hints that such program/s exist. Until 2020 there are official overt suggestions and even officially released details (flying wing, stealth, strategic range) since 2019. There's never been a military program of any level of sensitivity in China where the platform was hyped up with anything comparable while the platform itself remains "only" in prototyping/test flight phase. And this isn't even saying 2021, hinting at prototype reveal that's years away? No if and when the CCP gives such ample hinting for so long, the program is far more ready.

The J-20 prototype wasn't announced in 2005. The opposite happened with the J-20. The official "leaks" said that China was NOT developing a 5th gen fighter and constantly talked about how difficult and massive a task such a project is. Probably in the hopes of letting the adversary underestimate China's capability level then and how developed the real J-20 program already was. The prototype wasn't announced or even hinted at. Yes we know there were very small voiced leaks that competition between SAC and CAC exists for 5th gen fighter and a set of artist impressions. One of triplane (SAC) and one that resembles a fattened up F-22. Those were both quite inaccurate except for the fact SAC indeed developed a triplane to unknown degree.

So unbelievable and impossible for LRIP in 2023 cannot be said with an iota of confidence even if it may well end up being the truth. We just don't have enough info to know except for how we extrapolate patterns from the past to determine what's more likely.


Maybe I'm now in confusion due to my English, but having the H-20 ready "for service and LRIP in 2023" is plain IMPOSSIBLE and as such UNBELIEVABLE!

We haven't even seen a prototype, nor has it flown and now you suggest - if I get your post correct - to assume the H-20 could be ready "for service and LRIP in 2023" is possible?

How? Even for the J-20 - and in fact a stealth bomber is a very different beast - they needed 7 years from maiden flight to service entry; so how do you think being ready "for service and LRIP in 2023" should be possible?
 

ougoah

Major
Registered Member
Maybe I'm now in confusion due to my English, but having the H-20 ready "for service and LRIP in 2023" is plain IMPOSSIBLE and as such UNBELIEVABLE!

We haven't even seen a prototype, nor has it flown and now you suggest - if I get your post correct - to assume the H-20 could be ready "for service and LRIP in 2023" is possible?

How? Even for the J-20 - and in fact a stealth bomber is a very different beast - they needed 7 years from maiden flight to service entry; so how do you think being ready "for service and LRIP in 2023" should be possible?

The way I think about this is since it's NOT impossible for the CCP and PLA to have totally shrouded this project for the entire duration of its development phase including prototyping and test flights (you surely have to concede this possibility), therefore it is also NOT impossible for LRIP in 2023 (I don't know or even think this since that was a rumour after all and this H-20 topic is riddled with bad hints and rumours for years). Let's just play with that rumour and assume it's relatively official but ambiguous with wording on status.

Your entire argument on impossible and unbelievable rests upon the assumption that prototypes and test flights must be revealed years and years and years before LRIP. I agree that such things surely take place many years before LRIP and service but China's ASAT, nuclear program, AShBM, hypersonic weapons, to mention a few end platform projects, did not get their prototypes revealed at all. The AShBM and hypersonic weapons were observed by other nations through sea and space based sensors, over horizon radars etc but none of them were photographed, announced, or disclosed in writing before deployment and even then, probably some time after deployment. The naval railgun project's prototype was revealed years before completion. But all that means is we have precedent for both styles.

When it comes to H-20, it isn't simply announcing and showing prototypes of a new rifle being evaluated. It's a stealth strategic bomber with immense military and political implications and consequences. The further up this sensitivity chain, the more reason there is to hide such a program and only publicly reveal later rather than sooner.

Americans did not reveal B-2 until well after service. Same with the SR-71, stealth blackhawk, F-117. But there are also some prototypes and evaluation projects that were revealed like Comanche attack helicopter prototype and project, X-47B and so on.

These rumours are pretty questionable but it's certainly not impossible for H-20 to be in service and LRIP in 2023. So your reasoning on impossible with comparison to J-20 is throughly fallacious. But it must be said that your position itself may not be wrong! there is a distinction here! Not impossible also does NOT mean you are wrong. Can't stress this point enough.

Maybe language is a barrier here but basically I mean it's possible (but certainly questionable) that the the government and PLA (and of course XAC/AVIC) have hidden the entire prototype and testing phase like the equivalent of J-20 from 2009 to 2015 or so. That entire chunk has already happened just without all the wall climber photos and intentional reveals commissioned and planned by CCP. They can plan reveals and they can plan a hidden project.
 
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