Thanks a lot for your explanation, even if I must admit that IMO its wing geometry looks rather amateurish in mind of other images we know ...
H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
Thanks a lot for your explanation, even if I must admit that IMO its wing geometry looks rather amateurish in mind of other images we know ...
China is deceptive, it's safe to assume they're far along in their strategic bomber program.
That's the confusing thing. Everyone here and intel communities are very firm in their belief that China's super cunning and deceptive despite politically motivated publications and tabloid trashtalking.
Yet by past patterns, the H-20 should be far further along (at least prototype/s built if not flying) by now when they are talking about it relatively openly. At this point what he H-20 is along with details like flying wing, capabilities, size etc sound almost like an open secret. At this point in the J-20 program, we saw prototypes flying, we saw J-10 in service already when there was this much official noise about the program. I get some strategic weapons are shrouded in a bit more secrecy like SSBNs and SLBMs (JL-3 great example).
But strategic weapons like the high altitude high supersonic observation drone shown in the last parade. The HGV. These have been in service. If H-20 program is measured against these standards, given how much official noise has been made about it, it should be further along than discussions on what shape it is to hold. Which makes me doubt they are deciding between the configurations. The image isn't date stamped and could be discussing UAVs like dark sword sorry sharp sword (the one shown in parade)... or its counterparts/replacements.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
There's no deception about it. No one knew about the F-117 except for rumors before Panama. The US didn't feel the need to unveil it to the world. It wasn't in development. It was operational before Panama. Any deception comes from their own uniformed speculation. If an adversary fears the unknown and is hesitant with aggressive action because of it, that's called serving a purpose. When China was just a peasant army with no nukes, the US on several occasions considered the use of nuclear weapons. Why didn't they? Because they didn't know how the Soviets would react all the way to the possibility of it starting a nuclear exchange.
Pardon to step in, but by "what pattern"?? What makes you believe that the H-20 is already at a point comparable to other projects we know, where already a prototype was unveiled or even flying? On what do you fix this "at this point"?
IMO on nothing since we know in fact nothing and as such any noise in the public and the true progress of a certain project are in no way comparable.
Not aimed directly at you but in general -
China's intent is strength through economic domination, not militarily. There is essentially no need to pull the curtain back on anything that gives them an upper-hand right now because they don't want to risk intimidating the West (especially the US). It's quiet chess match right now between espionage, intelligence, and black world projects. Posturing is going on for both sides outside the view of the public, and that's all that matters.
The pattern I'm referring to is admittedly very rough and impossible to properly measure by quantifying. It is basically the amount of noise from CCP regarding H-20 program. For example all the leaked information from the typical sources who have been relatively accurate and "inside". Also the "The Next" hints and that advertisement which basically copies the format of the Northrup Grumman advertisement.
Comparing this much "noise" about H-20 from officially allowed leaks, to let's say J-20 where we were hinted at J-xx 5th gen projects only a few years before actual photos of "first" prototypes came out of model 2001. Then now we have found out that PLAAF's 5th gen competition between SAC and CAC have been going on for many years before model 2001 and possibly advanced design phases of SAC's triplane competitor. That means roughly the time when there was noise created about J-xx that reached English speaking forums, the real SAC and CAC programs were close to prototypes. 2001 flew first in Chengdu CAC airfield allegedly. I personally doubt they would have risked such a thing and bet 2001 or predecessor prototype/s have flown in desert or remote military test sites. 2001's flight was very simply a publicity show for both Robert Gates' visit that week and the Chinese/global public.
Given how similar amount of "noise" about H-20 now, if we assume the same disclosure levels and rules, H-20 program should be nearing prototype stages if not further. Now considering how H-20 is arguably strategically a bit more important than a fighter, it should reasonably be even further along. JL-3 had almost no noise surrounding it but test launches were verified by international intel community observers. There was hardly much gap between "noise" and test launches so H-20 should really be of a similar nature. Maybe somewhere between J-20 and JL-3. Even less "noise" for WZ-8 UAV. In fact we have known China had several mystery UAVs that looked or were suggested to be super fast and stealth ones. We knew for a few years and then the parade shows WZ-8 and months later it is suggested they've been used plenty of times in the past. Sharp sword or GJ-11 we have known for a while but its status of being in service already wasn't that well known until the parade.
So basically I'm trying to suggest the H-20 "noise" should indicate its progress but we have been hearing it for two years now with no further clues at all. It's just a little out of place that's all.
I think this is the case for China's H-20 as well. There is no purpose in revealing anything more except for the suggestion that such a thing almost definitely exists. The details and capabilities of which are not known. All the "revelations" like Russia's years old revelations about their new programs and weapons, are there to discourage real military conflict. With all of these, it could be bluffs, it may be just the tip of the iceberg.