I agree because without context the entire conversation is meaningless. IMO, we all need to define what we believe are the intended mission sets of the platforms under discussions. Having a greater payload or range is a good thing but platforms in reality are often built on trade offs (F-35) or planned capabilities (F-22). In the context of our conversation my underlying premise is that the H-20 and JHXX are two different platforms and not one. This is based on my understanding of the Pentagon's current assessment While separate platforms, both will incorporate VLO features. The H-20 will probably be of blended wing design with extended range and payload to deliver against targets into the 2nd island chain. That said, I don't believe it will have intercontinental range due to propulsion technology limitations. In contrast, the JHXX is a tactical bomber with range similar to the Flanker family variants. Its primary role is for penetration strike into contested airspace or to engage in SEAD/DEAD missions that would not be permissible with 4th gen assets. Its range would be sufficient to cover most of the immediate theaters associated with the 1st island chain.
I'll elaborate a little bit on what my vision of JH-XX is.
I envision an aircraft with MTOW of 60-70 tons, stealthy, with the internal payload volume to carry the equivalent of 2 YJ-12 sized AShMs (or an equivalent volume of smaller powered standoff missiles, or smaller direct attack munitions), with or without two small sidebays for self defense MRAAMs (PL-15 sized).
This aircraft will have a combat radius of 1500-2000km, with the ability to persist with time on station at that combat radius for over two hours.
The aircraft will be designed optimally for higher and medium altitude flight (not low altitude flight, different to what a few others before have written). I also do not envision this aircraft to be capable of sustained supercruise over mach 1.5, but rather to seek to achieve sustained supersonic dash of over mach 1.5 instead, as part of its normal combat radius + time on station.
Propulsion initially will be high rated WS-10s as stop gap. WS-10s will obviously limit its kinematic performance relative to WS-15s, which will be its intended propulsion.
Those are the main physical characteristics, to establish first, for my vision of JH-XX.
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The question that keeps surfacing in my mind is why is a JHXX even needed? Where capabilities permit, the J-16s and JH-7s can perform the necessary strike missions. If VLO penetation missions are needed, why can't the J-20s be modified with the targeting systems to conduct such roles? Is a JHXX really necessary because it adds another maintenance tail in to the picture besides the whole supply chain of parts to support another platform? Is payload that important for a tactical bomber to warrant another platform?
During the opening night of Desert Storm, twenty F-117 stealth fighters were able to strike 28 separate targets. Conversely, it took forty non-stealthy legacy aircraft to hit one target because of the need for electronic jamming aircraft, protective fighter cover, and surface-to-air missile suppression. In the first 24 hours, the coalition flew 2,775 sorties. The F-117, combining stealth and precision, hit 31 percent of the targets the first day. In those missions, it wasn't about deep payload but the capability to execute it.
Your take on F-117 is not inaccurate, however I think you are taking the wrong message from the F-117's performance.
The F-117's stealth and precision absolutely allowed it to hit a significant proportion of targets on the first day.
Compared to other aircraft that the coalition had during the Gulf War, the F-117 was leaps and bounds ahead of other aircraft they had for the deep strike role.
However, if the USAF had B-2s in service and mature during that time along with modern munitions, the number of B-2s needed to strike the same number of targets that the twenty F-117s hit would've probably been only a handful.
In other words the B-2's persistence and payload capacity is far superior to that of the F-117, and the benefit of having a larger aircraft with a greater payload capacity despite having a similar degree of survivability or stealth is basically such that you can free up your other "smaller" aircraft for other missions while your larger aircraft does the strike mission.
B-2s would've also been able to carry larger munitions than F-117 could carry if such munitions were available -- and if there were targets that required larger munitions to service then B-2 would've been able to do so while F-117 would not.
Of course the F-117 to B-2 comparison is not perfectly equal to our J-20 vs "JH-XX" comparison. JH-XX will likely only be up to 2-2.5 times as large as the J-20 at most whereas B-2 is many times larger than F-117.
In terms of equivalent A2G payload mass, my vision of JH-XX is able to carry 3 times as much as a single J-20
internally. E.g.: JH-XX would be able to carry 36+ SDB equivalent bombs compared to a J-20 that would be able to carry a maximum of say, 12 in its main ventral bay (hypothetically speaking -- as of yet we have to see J-20 integrated with an SDB like weapon yet or how many it can carry, but it's just to demonstrate the point)
For some large weapons like YJ-12, obviously a J-20 is unable to carry that internally
at all whereas my vision of JH-XX is able to carry two.
So, my reasoning for why a JH-XX (or at least my vision of it) is logical for the PLA and why it offers capabilities that the PLA won't have in its other aircraft, is because:
1: payload number/mass: compared to a single J-20, my vision of JH-XX is able to carry three times as much equivalent payload (e.g.: direct attack PGMs like JDAM or SDB equivalents) than a single J-20. That means to hit the same number of targets, you only need 1/3rd the number of JH-XXs to hit those targets compared to J-20. Of course, one can make the argument that having a larger J-20 fleet for that job may be a better investment than buying more JH-XXs, which is why there are two following points below:
2: range and endurance: my vision of JH-XX is able to conduct the mission at a range similar to what a J-20 can do, but with longer time on station than what J-20 is likely able to do. This is not an insignificant difference IMO.
3: payload size: the J-20 has a reasonably sized payload bay for its size. However it also does not have a payload bay that is sufficient to carry large weapons. Weapons like YJ-12 will require a much larger aircraft to carry, and it is likely that there will be a range of future A2G weapons, some of which will be sufficient in size for J-20 to carry but also some that will be too large for J-20. For certain missions, you need the ability to carry a larger weapon, either because you need to launch your weapon at longer standoff range, or because you need your weapon to have a larger mass overall, or you need your weapon to travel at higher speed -- all of which requires your weapon to overall be larger to a smaller weapon if both weapons are of equivalent technological level.
.... now, to repeat, I personally do not believe that my vision of JH-XX is a "must have" for the PLA.
Personally, I can see the reasoning for why JH-XX could be useful but also why JH-XXs mission could be done with a mix of J-20s + H-20s. However, depending on how ambitious the PLA are and how many J-20s and H-20s and JH-XXs they are able to fund and procure, it could also be very reasonable to procure JH-XXs as well in a way that the overall air fleet maintenance or logistics burden is outweighed by the capabilities that JH-XX could offer.
We don't have an answer for what kind of number and mix of J-20s and H-20s the PLA aim for nor what their overall funding and procurement and logistics burden with or without JH-XX is like into the future.
So IMO, it's unreasonable to say that the JH-XX is
definitely an aircraft that the PLA "must have" -- but I also think it's unreasonable to say that the JH-XX is an aircraft whose capabilities that the PLA can simply achieve with other aircraft in its fleet of the near future.
(Additionally, between H-20 and JH-XX, I believe H-20 is the more important platform to acquire, because I think H-20 can do many of the missions that JH-XX can do while JH-XX can do much less of the missions that H-20 can do.)
