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Kich

Junior Member
Registered Member
The difference is that this paper I think is focusing more on combat ready aircraft. You're more referring to air frames made. A lot of the J-20 production happened pretty recently back in 2020 so maybe a large number of them weren't combat ready.

Western standards of combat ready are also much higher so that's probably how this Japanese paper is getting this number.
Unless JSDF have personally serving in PLAAF, they won't know how many jets are combat coded.
For reasons unknown, this paper severely underestimated the numbers for some PLA aircraft.

End of the day, this argument doesn't matter cause no one is going to be fighting each other in the region so it doesn't matter that Japan's paper got things inaccurate.

Everything from them is just posturing and propaganda to make "certain western" audiences happy. Take a look at Japan's 2020 White paper cover and this year. The change in cover alone shows Japan is pandering to some. They just have to mention Tai*** and some will be happy and read that as absolute commitment. Meanwhile for Suga, it was just checking a box, nothing more.
 

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zaphd

New Member
Registered Member
The numbers in this Japanese document are exactly the same as those in the IISS Military Balance 2021 report, just with the qualifiers "estimated" or "at least" removed from some models, and subvariants combined into one number. That is certainly the source the Japanese MoD has used in this public document. They probably have a more up to date estimate of the threat internally. I would consider fear mongering and inflating the number without evidence to be more politically suspect than erring on the conservative side.
 

iantsai

Junior Member
Registered Member
The difference is that this paper I think is focusing more on combat ready aircraft. You're more referring to air frames made. A lot of the J-20 production happened pretty recently back in 2020 so maybe a large number of them weren't combat ready.
A combat aircraft is 'not combat ready' when it first enters service and only a few pilots are capable of combat operation. As time goes by there will be more and more capable pilots ready. And as new aircrafts arrive, they will be assigned to experienced pilot and be 'combat ready'.

J-20 entered service in March 2017, more than 4 years by now. There should be plenty of capable pilots waiting for new planes. And the fighter brigades which were assigned the new J-20s could be combat ready very soon.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
What I don't understand is why bunch so many together? There is almost no benefit to bunching so many together. Makes them easier to take out doesn't it?

I don't think China's decades old existing silos are spaced so closely together?
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
What I don't understand is why bunch so many together? There is almost no benefit to bunching so many together. Makes them easier to take out doesn't it?

I don't think China's decades old existing silos are spaced so closely together?
Probably many will be empty and the missiles are going to be moved between them often.
 

lcloo

Captain
I will splash one big bag full of salt that these are missile silos, the speculative minds of these foreign China experts have been wrong many times. The most famous ICBM silos in Fujian province is a very good example.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
I will splash one big bag full of salt that these are missile silos, the speculative minds of these foreign China experts have been wrong many times. The most famous ICBM silos in Fujian province is a very good example.
7p3nd6au18v31.jpg
Check out them giant missiles

I'm still on the fence about the windmill thing. One good way to add credibility to the windmill theory is if someone could locate an existing array of windmill in China laid out in similar fashion. The windmills I've seen seem to be more haphazard in layout rather than stick to strict geometric pattern.
 
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