PLAAF Breaking News (including articles with Pictures or videos)
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
Does the author or the DOD not know about the existence of the HQ-9 series?
I think they grouped it with S-300.
Where is the AVIC link?
I think he is referring to a source close to AVIC ... not that AVIC themselves directly stated this.
Any idea about J-10?
Not very likely, until we get some more confirmation about the source. Without it, this is just another wild rumor, the kind that've seen come and go for years/decades.
Or perhaps it's a matter of a mistranslation. Like with that recent 30 tons of thrust for J11B idea, which then turned out to be someone understanding something wrong.
Why is it not likely? Not because the numbers themselves are unattainable, but because it's not likely such a hike up would happen in such a short period of time.
30 J-20 in a year is actually least unlikely of the claims. The plane has been in production ramp up for some time, other similar programs in the US have ramped up to near such figures in similar timeframes. And it's a highly capable plane, a unique plane, which may well be deemed worthy of such ramp up.
20 J-15 is certainly doable, but it seems a bit exaggerated. Because - why the need for so many in one year? It doesn't make much sense to start production one year only to have it nearly cut off the next year. Makes much more sense to have 15 produced in, say, 2019, 15 more in 2020, 15 more 2021 and so on. To maintain the same production, maximizing effectiveness.
And certainly the need for further J-15 planes is not going to explode overnight, as it is limited by the carriers.
Carrier 001 has its entire wing ready. I guess PLANAF could do with a few more planes as a backup.
Carrier 002 is going to start training with its airwing sometime during this year. So it will need some 12 to at most 24 this year. And it won't have first mission deployment before 2021, for which it probably will be wise to have all 24 planes available. A dozen extra planes for training and attrition are also advisable.
Carrier 003 is likely going to be launched in 2021, then commissioned perhaps in 2023 and start training with its first air group elements in 2024, perhaps reach full capability in 2025.
So by 2025 the PLANAF will have a need for some 24+24+36 planes for its carriers plus another, say, 30-ish for training and attrition. So 115 planes. 15 J-15 per year would be enough to meet that figure in that timeframe. Unless, of course, carrier 004 is going to built and reach full capability in 2028 (that'd plausible providing we actually see first modules being built somewhere by the end of this year) So by 2028 that means 15 J-15 per year would yield 45 airframes, a nice number for the need of 36 planes for the 004 airwing and having yet again more for attrition. Anyway, 15 per year is plausible, but 20 per year doesn't seem as plausible unless we're really going to see an even more accelerated carrier building plan. And also, what about J-31? By 2028 one would certainly expect at least two dozen to be in active service. Which means roughly two dozen fewer J-15 needed.
60 J-16 per year is certainly the wildest claim. For the sole reason that we've had decades now of SAC building various flankers. And it has never really went over 30 flankers per year. That's including the production rate from the moment SAC switched from making J11B to making J16 (this would mean 60 J16 plus 20 J15 for a whopping 80 flankers in a year)
Again, ramping up is fine, as needs change, but going from 30 to 80 within a year (or at best two) is simply implausible.
While our ability to track units getting new planes such as J16 has deteriorated during the last two or so years, as fewer and fewer images trickle in, such a 250% jump is still unlikely. And what about J10? As a smaller and somewhat simpler plane, it's bound to be produced in at least similar numbers to heavy fighters. So even though it was omitted from this rumor list - are we to guess then J10 production also ramped up to... what - 60 or 80 airframes per year?
Personally, it seems more sensible, especially with J20 being around as the big fighter option as well, that J16's production rate won't change that much from what it was - and will continue by 25 or 30 airframes per year for several more years - until J31 derived plane is ready to replace it in SAC's production lines.
All that being said, it's certainly POSSIBLE the rumored ramp-ups have indeed happened. But that'd imply some tectonic changes, as well. It'd imply that PLA is really worried and potentially expecting a hot war within just years; and that they've decided to increase the overall PLAAF size by dozens of percent in a very short period of time.