China’s Grand Strategy
I’m quite taken with Halford Mackinder’s conception of Eurasia as the heartland of the World-Island (the geographic area comprising Eurasia, Africa, and Western Europe). In keeping with his thesis, I see the overwhelming focus of Chinese grand strategy until at least mid-century, and very probably beyond, to be the essential unification of the Eurasian heartland. This should not be taken to mean “unification” in a political sense – the populations of the region are far too culturally and linguistically distant for that to have a chance of success, as the Soviet Union painfully learned – or even a “soft” unification following the lines of the EU – as I shall argue later, I consider even monetary union a step too far (although, to be fair, only a step).
In what sense, then, do I mean “unification”? I believe the best answer to this question would be to examine it along different dimensions: politically, strategically, economically, and culturally. But before I do that, let me first define what I mean by the term “Eurasia”.
Exclusion of India:
The natural definition would be the geographic region encompassing the continent of Asia and the European peninsula. This differs somewhat for how I wish to use the term. First, it is often considered – and rightly so – that India, as a large and populous nation in Asia, is a part of Eurasia. Here I argue that it should be excluded from this particular geopolitical analysis for the following reasons: First and foremost, it is difficult to connect economically to the rest of Eurasia (the geographical region) as the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau effectively separate it (observe a topographical map, the impression is striking in a way no 2D map can convey). Second, it has not shed the legacy of British colonialism, and so looks principally to the culture of its former conquerors for guidance and example. Third, unresolved hostilities with China disincline it from participating in any Eurasian integration project where China plays a leading, or even a prominent, role. It is for these reasons that I argue that India is best understood as a maritime state – similar to Japan or Australia – rather than a heartland one.
One might object that Pakistan and other South Asian countries should also be excluded as – with the exception of the third point – they share these disqualifying characteristics with India. I shall attempt to argue the contrary using the example of Pakistan. Pakistan, as a geographically smaller and “narrower” state, can be economically connected to China by boring through the Himalayas (at some expense). To approach the same level of per-capita connectivity with India – if it were even willing to countenance such a thing – is a far more daunting prospect. The legacy of British colonialism scars Pakistan as it does India, but Pakistan is a far less populous country and has far warmer and closer relations to China; better yet, has had them for a long time. It is more conceivable that Pakistan would be far more amenable to Chinese cultural influence than India would be. Indeed, many Pakistanis have taken to studying Chinese to chase after opportunity; and 5,000 scholarships for Pakistani students to study at Chinese universities goes a lot farther in Pakistan than it would in India.
In short, Pakistan’s smaller geographical size and population, along with its willingness to cooperate with China make the prospects for Sino-Pakistani connectivity and integration far brighter than they are for India.
Exclusion of Western Europe:
Similarly to India, I wish to argue for excluding Western Europe – which I shall define, without serious controversy, as the countries west of Germany (inclusive). The primary reason for this exclusion is not geographical as it is with India, but rather economic, cultural, and strategic.
Let me begin by examining the economic reason for this exclusion. As fully-developed economies, the countries of Western Europe are primarily interested in preserving their monopoly on the commanding heights of technology, primarily against a committed effort by China to scale these heights and stake its claim to them. This struggle principally takes the form of exclusionary investment and trade regulations, closing of markets, as well as a concerted media campaign to paint Chinese technological advancement as illegitimate and underhanded. These states will certainly not willingly assist an effort by China to further its economic and strategic objectives.
Aside from the direct threat these countries perceive to their economic well-being, there is also the consideration that once China has attained comprehensive technological equality with them, they will lose the leverage they enjoy over developing countries as exclusive technology and capital suppliers.
The cultural and strategic reasons are equally important. All of these countries are security clients of the United States – and have been so for a long time – hence they have a strong interest in following (or at the very least not actively opposing) US strategic policy. It should be quite clear to any reader that the primary geopolitical opponent to the United States (which, culturally, must always have one) throughout the 21st century is China. Therefore, it takes no great wit to deduce that the countries of Western Europe will experience a great pressure to align their policies with that of their patron and take what steps they can to thwart China’s strategic designs.
I’m quite taken with Halford Mackinder’s conception of Eurasia as the heartland of the World-Island (the geographic area comprising Eurasia, Africa, and Western Europe). In keeping with his thesis, I see the overwhelming focus of Chinese grand strategy until at least mid-century, and very probably beyond, to be the essential unification of the Eurasian heartland. This should not be taken to mean “unification” in a political sense – the populations of the region are far too culturally and linguistically distant for that to have a chance of success, as the Soviet Union painfully learned – or even a “soft” unification following the lines of the EU – as I shall argue later, I consider even monetary union a step too far (although, to be fair, only a step).
In what sense, then, do I mean “unification”? I believe the best answer to this question would be to examine it along different dimensions: politically, strategically, economically, and culturally. But before I do that, let me first define what I mean by the term “Eurasia”.
Exclusion of India:
The natural definition would be the geographic region encompassing the continent of Asia and the European peninsula. This differs somewhat for how I wish to use the term. First, it is often considered – and rightly so – that India, as a large and populous nation in Asia, is a part of Eurasia. Here I argue that it should be excluded from this particular geopolitical analysis for the following reasons: First and foremost, it is difficult to connect economically to the rest of Eurasia (the geographical region) as the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau effectively separate it (observe a topographical map, the impression is striking in a way no 2D map can convey). Second, it has not shed the legacy of British colonialism, and so looks principally to the culture of its former conquerors for guidance and example. Third, unresolved hostilities with China disincline it from participating in any Eurasian integration project where China plays a leading, or even a prominent, role. It is for these reasons that I argue that India is best understood as a maritime state – similar to Japan or Australia – rather than a heartland one.
One might object that Pakistan and other South Asian countries should also be excluded as – with the exception of the third point – they share these disqualifying characteristics with India. I shall attempt to argue the contrary using the example of Pakistan. Pakistan, as a geographically smaller and “narrower” state, can be economically connected to China by boring through the Himalayas (at some expense). To approach the same level of per-capita connectivity with India – if it were even willing to countenance such a thing – is a far more daunting prospect. The legacy of British colonialism scars Pakistan as it does India, but Pakistan is a far less populous country and has far warmer and closer relations to China; better yet, has had them for a long time. It is more conceivable that Pakistan would be far more amenable to Chinese cultural influence than India would be. Indeed, many Pakistanis have taken to studying Chinese to chase after opportunity; and 5,000 scholarships for Pakistani students to study at Chinese universities goes a lot farther in Pakistan than it would in India.
In short, Pakistan’s smaller geographical size and population, along with its willingness to cooperate with China make the prospects for Sino-Pakistani connectivity and integration far brighter than they are for India.
Exclusion of Western Europe:
Similarly to India, I wish to argue for excluding Western Europe – which I shall define, without serious controversy, as the countries west of Germany (inclusive). The primary reason for this exclusion is not geographical as it is with India, but rather economic, cultural, and strategic.
Let me begin by examining the economic reason for this exclusion. As fully-developed economies, the countries of Western Europe are primarily interested in preserving their monopoly on the commanding heights of technology, primarily against a committed effort by China to scale these heights and stake its claim to them. This struggle principally takes the form of exclusionary investment and trade regulations, closing of markets, as well as a concerted media campaign to paint Chinese technological advancement as illegitimate and underhanded. These states will certainly not willingly assist an effort by China to further its economic and strategic objectives.
Aside from the direct threat these countries perceive to their economic well-being, there is also the consideration that once China has attained comprehensive technological equality with them, they will lose the leverage they enjoy over developing countries as exclusive technology and capital suppliers.
The cultural and strategic reasons are equally important. All of these countries are security clients of the United States – and have been so for a long time – hence they have a strong interest in following (or at the very least not actively opposing) US strategic policy. It should be quite clear to any reader that the primary geopolitical opponent to the United States (which, culturally, must always have one) throughout the 21st century is China. Therefore, it takes no great wit to deduce that the countries of Western Europe will experience a great pressure to align their policies with that of their patron and take what steps they can to thwart China’s strategic designs.