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AFTER-OLIMPIADA 2008?
Preparations for the reunification operations "on the part of China in recent times is becoming more pronounced. Thus, Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations Sha Zukang about possible intervention by Washington in the conflict between Beijing and Taibeem in an interview with the British BBC Corporation in August 2006 said : "The population of China is six times more than the population in the United States. So let the Americans zatknutsa and sit quietly, so will be better for them. The United States is, the right to deal with internal issues so if not correct nose in the internal affairs of China ... The question is not how big Taiwan. We each centimetre Chinese land much more important than the lives of our soldiers. " The last sentence of the passage confirms that their losses are for China irrelevant in the event that if his government had decided to achieve the goal. Even more telling is the fact China in the spring of 2002 (less than a year after obtaining the right to the Olympic Games in Beijing) commissioned from Russia eight new Szczecin 636 project with a condition of supply until 2007. To fulfill the order have to be implemented at three shipyards plant (in St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod and Severodvinsk). Such haste shows that Beijing is planning to combat use of the Navy at the end of the decade, and the strike force will be underwater fleet (it will be used to blockade Taiwan, combat its Navy and, as appropriate, USA), which is the total number of nuclear torpedo and diesel fire already ranked first in the world. Russian debates delivered to China is not on track, as usual, on board a special dock for the purpose of maximum motoresursa. The crews of these boats China already has a presence in the Navy four previously purchased boats of the same type. In addition to submarinam last year, China ordered at 34 transport aircraft Il-76, This was a significant increase of amphibious PLA. However, thanks to our Uzbek partners (aircraft were to be built in Tashkent), the contract is safely down, so far, China has not received a single machine. In September 2006, Beijing has suddenly tightened information policy. The state agency Xinhua will approve all materials from foreign media of China, for the announcement in the PRC. Furthermore, the courts have ordered to tighten penalties for leaking information. Interestingly, the "innovation 'is not just the fact China, Macau and Hong Kong, but formally in Taiwan (as "part of China"). Xinhua "is the right to filter the information supplied not only inside China, but also outside the Podnebesnoy : Agency can now penalize financially and revoke the license to work in the country for journalists who have "wrong" of the PRC. Several previously banned Chinese watch Western television. The control of the Internet in China has been the world's most sophisticated. Since no internal turmoil in the country does not seem to be there and it is not anticipated such a sudden sharp tightening of the information is very strong evidence of preparations for war. NOT ONLY thoughts Taiwan seems to have passed the station Taiwan ", Beijing has decided to look further into the future. And in September, the 2006th held an unprecedented scale 10 day exercises Shenyang and Beijing military districts, the two most powerful of the seven existing IN PLA. These districts adjacent to the border with Russia : Shenyang opposes the Far East, and Beijing-Siberian military region of the Russian Federation. The manoeuvres shenyang
units were rapidly deployed at a distance of 1,000 km to the Beijing district, which joined the battle with the forces of the district. Sending them out on their own,as as well as by rail. And the exercises were fine skills to manoeuvre army compounds at large distances from the locations and improved management logistical support troops. Such a scenario is the preparation for war with Russia, the other options are simply not available. The offensive, rather than defensive. For Taiwan (as well as, perhaps, to the Southeast Asian Nations) that the concept of training is not an option. Extracting classic deep offensive operations on land, at mountain-stepppe areas targeted by China can only be Russia and Kazakhstan. There is no middle ground. Incidentally, the topography of the place where the training place of the battle ", the same zabaykalsk district, and 1,000 km, is precisely on the Russian-Chinese border on the river Argun to Baikal.
N.Korean SURPRISE Against this background, in early October, the North Korean nuclear testing. No surprise then they have not been followed up. In response Beijing proved almost more rigid than demarches Washington. Reduced supplies in the North Korea food and energy, and even the construction of the wall in the Chinese border attest to the fact that the response has not been naigranna. China has long and hard, but it was very noticeable, creates its sphere of influence in the world, Guided primarily by economic motives. The ideology virtually ignored. Neither communism, much less democracy Beijing will impose no intention, but Americanism is a good basis for friendship with him, but optional. China has been very active to penetrate the Middle East, Africa and even Latin America. To varying degrees's allies are or become Pakistan, Myanmar, Thailand, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Sudan, Nigeria, Angola, Chad, Cuba, Venezuela, Belarus, etc. North Korea as part of the sphere of influence of China ever since the Korean War of 1950-1953 (many decades, the scope of Beijing and consisted of North Korea backed except Albania). In Beijing, it has always been seen as a buffer against the United States. The possibility of default "paranoid regime greatest Chinese leadership apparently never even considered, especially after the collapse of the USSR : Pyongyang simply has nowhere to go (in the 1960s and 1970s, he had to manoeuvre between Beijing and Moscow). On the basis of these considerations, in Beijing, it is possible to have decided that North Korea could simply annex, because the whole world was just get some relief from what is a powerful thing China has finally solved the problem of "mad Great Leader». Upset will be only South Korea with no access to reunite the country, but its views will simply ignored, particularly in a situation of the collapse of American hegemony. In early September, in the media, the report Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, with the argument that the ancient city state, Kija, and the Academy Parha in which today is North Korea, as well as a portion of South Korea's ancient served on the Podnebesnoy. This is a direct application for annexation. One month in the North Korea has nuclear tests. Afraid of the attacks America now entirely meaningless. The possibility of military action against North Korea in the United States was not considered before, it became apparent the Iraqi fiasco, since the minimum loss of the operation at 100,000 troops. On the other hand, the move to States by IDB North Korea is never, yes and no. Finally, more or less, it is clear that food and North Korea Washington is not, it is already too much spending on Iraq and Afghanistan. You can, of course, cause closer South Korea and Japan, but in Tokyo explosions caused the opposite effect - a convert Autodefensas in full Sun and began to establish their own nuclear weapons. It seems that the main objective of nuclear testing has been China. Pyongyang showed Beijing, which does not want to be annexed. By the way, the North Korean missile isn't likely to reach US, but can hit the main centres of the People's Republic of China (including the capital) even today. However, it is a not a proven fact that nuclear warheads can be fitted on North Korean missiles or on the aircraft.
Over the past since the test period, some media already revelations of a possible conspiracy between Beijing and Washington about direct occupation of the Chinese People Liberation Army (or the subsequent annexation, either with the establishment in Pyongyang is really a puppet regime). In America disappear North Korean problem, in addition, it can rely on, that Beijing at least temporarily delay the absorption of Taiwan. With regard to China, concerned, it will be a new step, a real participation in the global geopolitical game, and the actual increase in its territory, that would constitute a precedent. Conspiracy same for North Korea to become a part of a broad agreement between Washington and Beijing. In theory, China is, of course, free to operate on the basis of the test-shove ", the losers finished the USA permanently. However, Beijing is unlikely to do so in such a way as not to be responsible for the entire world. The PRC is likely to expect that the main enemy is broken right now, when China is not gained forces and the ability to replace States as the sole superpower. Therefore, in the near future it is likely to prefer to share with Washington sphere of influence, with the opportunity to speak from a position of strength. Not making it on public display, and thus America that the person "China is likely to receive more assignments. For example, Beijing may be a carte blanche for the annexation of the North Korea on condition it is said South Korea, from which American troops leave now. With regard to Taiwan, the issue could be resolved amicably : Washington quietly explain Taipei, we must surrender protect the island America is not, as Beijing promises to preserve the principle of "one country, two systems" for Taiwan, and Hong Kong at least age 50. From a military point of view, only the Chinese army to carry out the operation on the occupation of North Korea. It mobilizes millions of unemployed defence, which, for a couple of weeks, will be held prior to the 38th parallel. Million-druga their and the same Korean corpses to China is not a problem, and if America much less rasstroitsa. Japan has found a version of the least evil. Absolutely unacceptable that development only for South Korea (obviously) and for Russia. In the first place, why Russia as a precedent the return of ancestral lands Chinese ", as most of these lands, from the point of view of Beijing, Russia has (at least all of this territory, have been attributed to China Nerczynsky treaty in 1689, and about their best not to think). There is no illusion that the recently signed agreement on border withdraws territorial claims. Official historiography PRC continues to interpret Chinese relations as constant aggression of our country against Podnebesnoy and Urnov off of the ancestral lands ", namely, in reality, China has never owned. If the claims we really were removed the history books and scholarly works not drive to the head of Chinese attitude towards Russia as a "predator». Further strengthening China, especially in the light of the above exercises should not enjoy Moscow, and very disturbing. If the americano-kitayski conspiracy, it will be for Russia deadly option because it knows will be implemented by the Russian Federation. For Washington is a natural way to "give Russia» China that it "works" of its absorption and less wvazavalsa in the affairs of other parts of the world. MOMENT OF TRUTH However, Washington may prevail opposite trends and the United States move to a direct confrontation with China and the establishment around "sanitary cordon". However, the possibility of Russia great joy not quite : America can begin to work towards the that one of the most important elements of "curtain" became independent Siberian and Far Eastern Republic (admittedly that, if well-vlaugitsa in this scenario, it is easy, as a result of "strengthening the power vertical" Russia is weak now more than ever). For its part, Beijing in this situation is blatantly twisting the hands of Moscow, forcing by all available means in a military alliance, which we inevitably will be designated as besslovesnoho subordinate. Profitable for the entire Russia to the peaceful unification of Korea. Of course, under the aegis of Seoul, but with the provision of high-level posts to leaders of North Korea. The new country could not be neither uncritically proamerikan as until recently South Korea, or pathologically anti-American, like North Korea. And for historical and economic and geopolitical reasons united Korea would be considered as rivals and China, and Japan. And it is only with Russia, it was not the controversy, Moscow became its natural ally in the region. Korea would be a kind of eastern India, a country with a powerful military and economic potential, it is independent politically. Ideally, it would be a geopolitical axis Moscow-Delhi-Hanoi - Seoul (or Pyongyang, decide as a people of Korea). For us, the added value union with a united Korea would be the possibility of extending to its territory Trans and pipelines, and the involvement of the Far East and Siberia Korean workforce to replace Chinese. The Koreans are no worse, and do not threaten expansion (if only because that even in a united Korean people half of the Russian Federation). It is only Russia can serve as a mediator between Pyongyang and Seoul. First, it is truly interested in peace together Koreas, secondly, only Moscow now maintains normal relations with the two Koreas. There can be no doubt that if Russia really Yushchenko peaceful reunification of the country, Koreans did not forget to do so. Of course, such a mediation practice, it would be extremely difficult for a number of reasons. This will resist as Beijing, and Washington seeking to monopolize negotiations with Pyongyang. To counter Chinese influence will be particularly difficult, to this day Moscow so docile, in the wake of Beijing that is naprashiwatsa idea of "external management". In and of itself, the regime of Kim Jong Il is very heavy negotiating partner (sometimes think that it is impossible to speak). Finally, the domestic diplomacy has already demonstrated the ability to build a complex combination with a long-term view, instead we are seeing torpornae play trumpet and Americanism as an end in itself. There is no doubt that in Moscow to at least correct the issue. Overall, it is the Far Eastern situation will be to the moment of truth "for the United States, China and Russia. If America delivers Taiwan, and, what is more, goes from South Korea, it means the recognition of Washington formally rejected hegemony and shared it at least in part with Beijing. If China allows the door, it is impossible to take advantage of the weakening of the United States, or take any decisive steps in an easterly direction it demonstrates a lack of "big game" and can only Power regional level. If Russia simply bezwolno observer of events, then it is not subject and the object of world politics and in the foreseeable future will not be able to maintain even their own territory, Not to mention the spread of its influence outside.
