New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China


supersnoop

Senior Member
Registered Member
Nokia, Blackberry and Xerox faced new and different technology disruptors that made them obsolete. But Toyota, Honda et al are just being late in the game. They will still make and sell EVs. Their competition will be Chinese brands that are nearly as good in quality and reliability, but cheaper and probably have more features and good after-sales service.

Blackberry could've arguably been "late to the game", same with Nokia. Don't forget Palm Treo and MS PocketPC. How did these platforms fundamentally differ from Apple or Android? They had apps, they had web browsing, GPS capability, etc. The only difference from an engineering standpoint is that Apple upped the graphical quality (both hardware and software), horsepower and refined the interface a lot.

The difference, in this case is that Toyota has a lot of assets and could throw money at the problem if they needed a quicker fix. Blackberry had no one to turn to, they could not buy Google for example. They bought QNX, but they were still needing to work on making that into a modern phone platform and by then it was too late. Microsoft had the same problem in an opposite direction where they had more viable software, but no hardware. They bought Nokia, again late, executed poorly, and ultimately failed.

Aren’t all high end EV using Lithium batteries not NiMH? That’s why all those Tesla and Bolt fires are so devastating. Funny you mention that Chinese companies are going cobalt free. It is often alleged by western media that Chinese companies are exploiting Africa for cobalt to corner the battery market.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Then Toyota will have to source from somebody else if they want to enter the EV business.

Toyota has a JV with Panasonic, who also supplies Tesla for its US cars.

Its likely Toyota will simply "localize" its battery sources based on regional locations. For example, its China JV will have to use Chinese ones like CATL.

Right now, NCMA and NMH batteries are the gold standard for the high end due to its combination of safety and high density. The problem is these also use Nicket and Cobalt. Personally, and I am sure with many others, is that I am not interested in buying a $50,000 SUV that will do 0 to 100kph in 4 seconds. Something around $10,000 to $20,000 will do and 0 to 100kph in 10 seconds would be more than enough. But most of all I want it to be safe and has a long battery life.

China's strategic pivot to LFP, first used with electric scooters over 10 years ago, has knocked it out of the ballpark.

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Check out CATL's meteoric growth. 3400% is not a typo.


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Lithium ferro phosphate (LFP)​

LFPs, which use a lithium-iron compound as cathode, were among the first LIBs to be commercialized. They are already standard in China, used in that country’s ubiquitous scooters and small EVs.

“The big Chinese battery makers — BYD, CATL and Lishen — each one of those is larger by itself than any other battery company that’s not in China,” says Lou Schick, director of investments at Clean Energy Ventures. “And they have been making lithium iron phosphate cells for 10 years.”

A few years ago, it
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like LFPs were going to be displaced by NMCs and NCAs, but lately they’ve made a comeback. Now they are potentially positioned to take the lead in the EV and stationary storage markets. They have already captured
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.

LFPs use lithium ferro phosphate (LiFePO4) as the cathode, replacing nickel, manganese and/or aluminum. They have numerous advantages relative to nickel-based competitors:

  • Cheaper on a materials basis (though not yet on a $/kWh basis).
  • Higher cycle life (Matt Roberts, previously executive director of the Energy Storage Association and now working at battery company Simpliphi, says his company’s LFP batteries are covered by warranty for 10,000 cycles, compared to 2,500 to 5,000 for cobalt batteries).
  • Higher power density.
  • High safety and low toxicity (“They’re almost…bulletproof in that they can’t catch fire,” says Clean Energy Ventures’ Schick).
  • Replace problematic and/or rare metals with iron, which is safe and abundant.
In exchange for these advantages, LFPs have lower energy density (because there are fewer spaces for ions to intercalate). However, because they are so safe, LFPs do not require the same protective packaging that NMCs and NCAs do, so they can gain some of that efficiency back at the pack level. Tesla says that although LFPs have 50 percent of the energy density of their high-nickel competitors, an LFP-based vehicle can still get 75 percent of the range.

VW
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that starting in 2023 it will be “employing lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, in entry models; nickel-manganese in volume models; and nickel-rich NCM in high-end models.”

Tesla said more or less the same thing at its Battery Day event in 2020. It plans to use LFPs for an upcoming cheap (under $25,000) vehicle, the Model 3 and commercial energy storage.

Articles worth checking:

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
The Koreans, which has previously concentrated on Lithium Nickel based solutions, are now beginning to see the light of using LFP, even if they are late. Better late than never I suppose. The combination of harder and harder to get metal supply along with the recent battery fires have convinced them.

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broadsword

Colonel
Toyota has a JV with Panasonic, who also supplies Tesla for its US cars.

Its likely Toyota will simply "localize" its battery sources based on regional locations. For example, its China JV will have to use Chinese ones like CATL.

Right now, NCMA and NMH batteries are the gold standard for the high end due to its combination of safety and high density. The problem is these also use Nicket and Cobalt. Personally, and I am sure with many others, is that I am not interested in buying a $50,000 SUV that will do 0 to 100kph in 4 seconds. Something around $10,000 to $20,000 will do and 0 to 100kph in 10 seconds would be more than enough. But most of all I want it to be safe and has a long battery life.

China's strategic pivot to LFP, first used with electric scooters over 10 years ago, has knocked it out of the ballpark.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Check out CATL's meteoric growth. 3400% is not a typo.


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Lithium ferro phosphate (LFP)​

LFPs, which use a lithium-iron compound as cathode, were among the first LIBs to be commercialized. They are already standard in China, used in that country’s ubiquitous scooters and small EVs.

“The big Chinese battery makers — BYD, CATL and Lishen — each one of those is larger by itself than any other battery company that’s not in China,” says Lou Schick, director of investments at Clean Energy Ventures. “And they have been making lithium iron phosphate cells for 10 years.”

A few years ago, it
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
like LFPs were going to be displaced by NMCs and NCAs, but lately they’ve made a comeback. Now they are potentially positioned to take the lead in the EV and stationary storage markets. They have already captured
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

LFPs use lithium ferro phosphate (LiFePO4) as the cathode, replacing nickel, manganese and/or aluminum. They have numerous advantages relative to nickel-based competitors:

  • Cheaper on a materials basis (though not yet on a $/kWh basis).
  • Higher cycle life (Matt Roberts, previously executive director of the Energy Storage Association and now working at battery company Simpliphi, says his company’s LFP batteries are covered by warranty for 10,000 cycles, compared to 2,500 to 5,000 for cobalt batteries).
  • Higher power density.
  • High safety and low toxicity (“They’re almost…bulletproof in that they can’t catch fire,” says Clean Energy Ventures’ Schick).
  • Replace problematic and/or rare metals with iron, which is safe and abundant.
In exchange for these advantages, LFPs have lower energy density (because there are fewer spaces for ions to intercalate). However, because they are so safe, LFPs do not require the same protective packaging that NMCs and NCAs do, so they can gain some of that efficiency back at the pack level. Tesla says that although LFPs have 50 percent of the energy density of their high-nickel competitors, an LFP-based vehicle can still get 75 percent of the range.

VW
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that starting in 2023 it will be “employing lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, in entry models; nickel-manganese in volume models; and nickel-rich NCM in high-end models.”

Tesla said more or less the same thing at its Battery Day event in 2020. It plans to use LFPs for an upcoming cheap (under $25,000) vehicle, the Model 3 and commercial energy storage.

Articles worth checking:

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For sure, batteries free of scarce and expensive metals are the way forward. Toyota and VW have a joint venture in battery:
Toyota joins Volkswagen-backed QuantumScape in making recent and noteworthy news on solid-state battery development. QuantumScape, a California based startup, reported in December that its solid-state design offers 80% more range than current lithium-ion cells, a 15-minute charge time and has a longer lifespan. The batteries also weigh less (they’re virtually anode-free), offer nearly double the energy density of conventional lithium-ion, take up less space and feature a solid, non-combustible separator.
 

broadsword

Colonel
Blackberry could've arguably been "late to the game", same with Nokia. Don't forget Palm Treo and MS PocketPC. How did these platforms fundamentally differ from Apple or Android? They had apps, they had web browsing, GPS capability, etc. The only difference from an engineering standpoint is that Apple upped the graphical quality (both hardware and software), horsepower and refined the interface a lot.

The difference, in this case is that Toyota has a lot of assets and could throw money at the problem if they needed a quicker fix. Blackberry had no one to turn to, they could not buy Google for example. They bought QNX, but they were still needing to work on making that into a modern phone platform and by then it was too late. Microsoft had the same problem in an opposite direction where they had more viable software, but no hardware. They bought Nokia, again late, executed poorly, and ultimately failed.

Aren’t all high end EV using Lithium batteries not NiMH? That’s why all those Tesla and Bolt fires are so devastating. Funny you mention that Chinese companies are going cobalt free. It is often alleged by western media that Chinese companies are exploiting Africa for cobalt to corner the battery market.

Blackberry and Nokia were far too late. EV industry is still in its infancy. How many percent of penetration rate is EV? You are right Toyota has a lot of assets and throw money at the problem. But they have more than that. They have the distribution channels, after-sales service and brand recognition.

I was not saying they will not face problem from the Chinese competitors. I was saying the problem will grow bigger, but slower than the problems facing Nokia and Blackberry.

It is not just me that the Chinese companies are going cobalt free. They are all trying to go cobalt free to go by the media reports. It is an expensive ingredient after all. Look at @Tam 's posts. I don't find it funny saying they try to forgo it.
 

supersnoop

Senior Member
Registered Member
Blackberry and Nokia were far too late. EV industry is still in its infancy. How many percent of penetration rate is EV? You are right Toyota has a lot of assets and throw money at the problem. But they have more than that. They have the distribution channels, after-sales service and brand recognition.

I was not saying they will not face problem from the Chinese competitors. I was saying the problem will grow bigger, but slower than the problems facing Nokia and Blackberry.

It is not just me that the Chinese companies are going cobalt free. They are all trying to go cobalt free to go by the media reports. It is an expensive ingredient after all. Look at @Tam 's posts. I don't find it funny saying they try to forgo it.
Yes, I had originally typed that under a post by @Tam, but deleted it by accident

I think it is "funny" because of articles like this
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The threats are related to the security of supply, as increasingly close ties between the two countries could pose problems to those in the West looking to build up self-contained localized battery supply chains.

Coincidentally, when convenient Belt and Road is a "debt trap", when it isn't convenient then...

Back in early January, China announced that it would cancel an estimated $28 million of loans to the DRC, repayment of which were due by the end of 2020, and would provide $17 million in other financial support to help the country overcome the sanitary crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic.

China is cancelling debt to bring the relationship closer!

Related:
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Not to become too off-topic
The politics of DRC is basically the "Dummies guide" to Western government hypocrisy when it comes to foreign intervention...
When Mobutu Sese Seko was toppled by Laurent Desiree Kabila's coup, his excesses were no longer tolerated by the Western governments as the USSR was long gone. Western writers would talk about what a terrible leader Mobutu was and how the people suffered. What was rarely mentioned was that Mobutu was put into power by the West as they thought Patrice Lumumba was a puppet of the USSR. He was executed by Mobutu with the help of Belgium.
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
Some people are probably wondering, how could China generate all the energy to feed the hordes of electrics soon to dominate the roads?

I have suggested elsewhere that a small fraction of the Gobi Desert's area, if covered by solar panels, would produce enough to fully replace the world's other sources of energy. Of course, the solar panels would produce zero power during the night, so Solar Power Satellites (SPSs) in space are still preferred. However, let's at least explore the Gobi Desert's potential.

The area of the Gobi Desert is roughly 1.3 million square kilometers.

Sunlight on earth is 1400 watts/m^2.

We will probably cheap out on the solar panels, as we'll be using so many of them. So assume a low efficiency of 15 percent.

The Gobi Desert is quite large and irregularly shaped, so its latitude isn't easy to determine. My eyeball estimate is that it averages 45 degrees. That means sunlight is reduced by approximately cos(45 degrees) = 0.7.

Putting all this together, the solar power available from the Gobi Desert is

(1.3e6 km^2) * (1400 W/m^2) * 0.15 * 0.7 = 191 terawatts

Global power usage (which includes all sources of energy, such as coal, oil, nuclear, and so on) is roughly 18 TW.

So less than a tenth of Gobi's area, if covered by solar panels, would power the whole world. Yes, that's a lot of area, but remember, this will feed the whole world -- at least in Gobi's daytime. For just China, perhaps one or two percent of Gobi will be adequate. For only China's electric vehicles, even less.
 

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
The Koreans, which has previously concentrated on Lithium Nickel based solutions, are now beginning to see the light of using LFP, even if they are late. Better late than never I suppose. The combination of harder and harder to get metal supply along with the recent battery fires have convinced them.

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They should watch out for Koreans copying Chinese battery technology.
 

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