Re: How Do You Sink A Carrier?
Satisfying all their requirements would mean a very high unit costs, or alternatively you could compromise and have a weapon that's mediocre to all of them.
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A sub which can carry lots of missiles sound nice, but what about missile guidance etc?
No, the unit cost is dependent on total number produced, because you have to average out the R&D expense. So if you make a cruise missile that's useful to multiple branches, it'd increase the order potential, and therefore reduce per unit cost.
On missile guidance, since this scenario calls for anti-shipping, we prolly cannot use TERCOM. It'd prolly use a mix of inertial and satellite navigation to reach the target area, then go into hunter-killer mode with its seeker head. I envision something like an IR + electro-optical imaging technology that can guide the missile to specific target area on a ship.
Unless the UAVs have a level of RCS that reaches F-117 levels, then they are vulnerable to being shot down. It may still be a moot point if they have to use radar in order to search for the CVN.
Rather than say "F-117 level" or "F-22 level", I think it's more realistic to say "gradual RCS reduction" through research advances and implementation. Or, if you want to be under-handed about it, theft and espionage.
Development can be categorized into 2 areas, hardware (physical) and software (human resource). The PRC has made some advancement in the hardware sector (manufacturing), but is lacking in software (skilled/expereinced people). They have computers that are much faster than the supercomputers of 1970s, but not the experienced research staff at Skunk Works to make the F-117. Human resource takes time to cultivate, there's no shortcuts around it.
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As for your UAV network concept, that is something the US planners forsee, and something they have chosen to invest in. That said, they are at the forefront, and whether anybody else can pour in the same amount of resources is questionable. Also, while the concept sounds good, it hardly is an insurmountable threat to the CSG. In fact, if China spent so much just to counter the CSG that it's left little money to develop abilities to threaten Taiwan, then the CSG just served its purpose! Sun Tsu would be mighty pleased!
UAV's are very attractive to me, because it doesn't require a human pilot in the cockpit. It takes many years to train a combat pilot today, if you lose them in combat, it's difficult to replace in short time. Same with manned combat jets, they're large and expensive.
UAV's, on the other hand, doesn't require a manned pilot. So even if it gets shot down, the controllers are still safetly back home and out of harm's way. I also think it'd be easier to replace UAV's than large manned aircraft.
If we look at recent PRC developments, some of the stuff that I suggested are already in development, i.e. DH-10, H-6 based satellite launch, etc. There's some progress in UAV development, but I think it's not enough, and should be allocated more resources, even at the expense of manned aircraft programs (no free lunch here), because I believe UAV's will be the future, and will replace most manned aircraft.
As for Taiwan, I think these developments are applicable and not solely useful against surface ships. Cruise missiles do have land attack mode and are more accurate than SRBM's. Just as UAV's can be used for target acqusition on ships, it can be used for land targets, ships at dock, aircraft in an AFB, etc.