J-XY next generation carrier-borne fighter

stannislas

New Member
Registered Member
Agreed.

How many J-XY jets would actually be needed?

With an additional 2-4 carriers in the next 15 years - call it up to 150 new fighter jets would be needed.

If you were to begin an entirely new programme, a small production run of 150 jets means:
1. the upfront development costs are going to be really high, in comparison to the production costs
2. the production costs are going to be high because of the small production run.
2. the production run will also begin and finish quickly

I don't see that as being enough aircraft to justify an entirely new programme, since UCAVs will likely be part of the airwing as well, and they already have the J-15.

So for the 003 carrier, I reckon they'll fill it with newer catapult-capable J-15s.

Then for the 004 carrier, stealth UCAVs may be ready in the 2025 timeframe, so production switches to this.
Then the 003 and 004 airwings are reshuffled to be mixed J-15/UCAV.

The technical requirements for carrier and land-based UCAVs are similar enough that you could have a common programme or subsystems to achieve greater scale.
The cost might be an issue, but as long as PLAN has the ambition to conduct any combat far away from the land-based aero support, I don't think it will stop them thinking about the 5th fighter
 

PeoplesPoster

New Member
There is most definitely NDA's in China. I deal with them every day. Between AVIC and PLA there better be an NDA, while they may be generally under the same boss, AVIC still competes with other departments within the overall system.
 

Twix101

Junior Member
There is most definitely NDA's in China. I deal with them every day. Between AVIC and PLA there better be an NDA, while they may be generally under the same boss, AVIC still competes with other departments within the overall system.
NDA covers civilians and commercial matters. We are talking about military projects, these matters are much probably classified information a d those things are covered by the National Administration of State Secrets Protection. Classified information is covered by China's Criminal Code, such information release much probably have been cleared by the aforementioned body, else, this would have been already deleted and the guys behind this would have some trouble by now...
 

AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
The cost might be an issue, but as long as PLAN has the ambition to conduct any combat far away from the land-based aero support, I don't think it will stop them thinking about the 5th fighter
True, but what timescale are we looking at?

I see the 1st and 2nd Island Chain as the top priority for the next 15 years.

But yes, continue R&D, because it does take a very long time for military systems to come into service.
 

stannislas

New Member
Registered Member
True, but what timescale are we looking at?

I see the 1st and 2nd Island Chain as the top priority for the next 15 years.

But yes, continue R&D, because it does take a very long time for military systems to come into service.
Well, let's see.

It takes 6 years for J-20 to enter PLAAF, and 8 years to start mass production, and I still won't expect more than a total of 60 in operation by 2020. So let's just say j-xy is an upgrade version of j-20 or fc-31, with previous experience the development is much smoother, it could still cost them a good 5 years before it enters PLAN, add another 2 years for testing and trails in the troops, 7 years to enter PLAN. By then Chinese may have 4-5 aircraft carriers, each takes about 36-48 aircraft, thus 150 to 200. If we assume SAC produces 24 j-xy a year, that's a good 7-9 years. So a totally of 15 years is just enough.

Aside from R&D, the navy is not as easy to built as ground and air force, it will take a quite long time for the Chinese to train their pilots, sailors and learn how to operate an aircraft carrier group to combat. The current pilots on Liaoning are mostly former PLAAF pilots with at least a couple hundred hours of experience, yet it still cost them 2 years before they could land on the aircraft overnight. Thus I guess it could still take them at least a good 10 years to learn the operation and combat of an aircraft carrier group and another few years to develop the stealth fighter tactics once they enter services.

More importantly, j-xy could provide the PLAN an unparalleled capability to conduct any operations far away from the mainland aero support comparing with J-15. Yes, beside of Guam, most 1st, 2nd island chain targets are within 1000-1500 km from the mainland, which is within the range, but still, it will be much helpful if they could extend their reach to 3000-5000km, outside the land-based support, to confront any possible threats, like South China Sea, Guam, Indian Ocean and etc.

Overall, I think it would be very little cost (produce j-xy) for them to pay in order to gain this ability, and time is irrelevant. 10, 20, 50 years, no matter what, they want to get it anyway, and of course, the sooner the better.
 

Tam

Captain
Registered Member
I tend to think J-35 relationship to FC-31 is more like F/A-18 is to YF-17 as opposed to Su-33 from Su-27.

Maybe someone can chime in?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


(via:[email protected]锦怡最美丽)
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
作者は元AVIC基層スタッフ、離職済み、脱密済み。 次期艦載機技術的には大体FC31からのものだが、別物だと考えた方がよい。 AVICとAECCは互いに独立な企業で、エンジンは詳しくない。但しWS-19の可能性が高い。 補足:貴州所の官僚主義は瀋陽所以上。
Translated from Japanese by Google
(Via: tieba @ 锦 美 最 美丽)
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
The author is a former AVIC base staff, who has left the company and has been evacuated. The next ship-based aircraft is technically from FC31, but it is better to consider it different. AVIC and AECC are independent companies and do not know much about the engine. However, the possibility of WS-19 is high. Supplement: The bureaucracy of Guizhou is higher than that of Shenyang.

EMOtictUcAALkgo.jpeg EMOticwU4AAjzFx.jpeg EMOticvVAAALIPH.jpeg EMOticvU4AAZk_y.jpeg
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
I tend to think J-35 relationship to FC-31 is more like F/A-18 is to YF-17 as opposed to Su-33 from Su-27.

Maybe someone can chime in?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


(via:tie[email protected]锦怡最美丽)
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
作者は元AVIC基層スタッフ、離職済み、脱密済み。 次期艦載機技術的には大体FC31からのものだが、別物だと考えた方がよい。 AVICとAECCは互いに独立な企業で、エンジンは詳しくない。但しWS-19の可能性が高い。 補足:貴州所の官僚主義は瀋陽所以上。
Translated from Japanese by Google
(Via: tieba @ 锦 美 最 美丽)
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
The author is a former AVIC base staff, who has left the company and has been evacuated. The next ship-based aircraft is technically from FC31, but it is better to consider it different. AVIC and AECC are independent companies and do not know much about the engine. However, the possibility of WS-19 is high. Supplement: The bureaucracy of Guizhou is higher than that of Shenyang.

View attachment 56083 View attachment 56084 View attachment 56085 View attachment 56086
Not sure if the following is related or not. Could someone translate or summarize what's being said in this photo (screenshot actually) and what the diagram represents?

It was a Weibo post from "tsqzsl":
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

部分军迷的判断标准:
错都是别人的,譬如中航、军队都会被钉在耻辱柱上,唯有自己不会错。真不知道谁给他们那样的“自信”,自己啥能耐都没点自知之明?!
Rough translation/paraphrase: "tsqzsl" seems to be scolding some military observers for being in denial that the FC-31-derived fighter is the best choice (translation could be wrong, please correct if needed).

 

Attachments

AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
Well, let's see.

It takes 6 years for J-20 to enter PLAAF, and 8 years to start mass production, and I still won't expect more than a total of 60 in operation by 2020. So let's just say j-xy is an upgrade version of j-20 or fc-31, with previous experience the development is much smoother, it could still cost them a good 5 years before it enters PLAN, add another 2 years for testing and trails in the troops, 7 years to enter PLAN. By then Chinese may have 4-5 aircraft carriers, each takes about 36-48 aircraft, thus 150 to 200. If we assume SAC produces 24 j-xy a year, that's a good 7-9 years. So a totally of 15 years is just enough.

Aside from R&D, the navy is not as easy to built as ground and air force, it will take a quite long time for the Chinese to train their pilots, sailors and learn how to operate an aircraft carrier group to combat. The current pilots on Liaoning are mostly former PLAAF pilots with at least a couple hundred hours of experience, yet it still cost them 2 years before they could land on the aircraft overnight. Thus I guess it could still take them at least a good 10 years to learn the operation and combat of an aircraft carrier group and another few years to develop the stealth fighter tactics once they enter services.

More importantly, j-xy could provide the PLAN an unparalleled capability to conduct any operations far away from the mainland aero support comparing with J-15. Yes, beside of Guam, most 1st, 2nd island chain targets are within 1000-1500 km from the mainland, which is within the range, but still, it will be much helpful if they could extend their reach to 3000-5000km, outside the land-based support, to confront any possible threats, like South China Sea, Guam, Indian Ocean and etc.

Overall, I think it would be very little cost (produce j-xy) for them to pay in order to gain this ability, and time is irrelevant. 10, 20, 50 years, no matter what, they want to get it anyway, and of course, the sooner the better.
I think going with an all manned fighter wing doesn't make sense, given the advances in UCAVs and their far superior range. So the numbers of potential J-XY should be much lower.

And what is more important? A small number of expensive J-XY on a vulnerable carrier versus more J-20s to obtain air superiority over the 1st Island Chain?

My expectation is that there will be 400-600 J-20s produced in the coming years.

In comparison, a J-XY production run would be some 4x smaller at 100-150 aircraft.

The timescale matters very much for the J-XY. You mention 20 or 50 years as a requirement. If you're looking at these timescales, why bother producing a J-XY now, when there are more important priorities.
 

stannislas

New Member
Registered Member
I think going with an all manned fighter wing doesn't make sense, given the advances in UCAVs and their far superior range. So the numbers of potential J-XY should be much lower.

And what is more important? A small number of expensive J-XY on a vulnerable carrier versus more J-20s to obtain air superiority over the 1st Island Chain?

My expectation is that there will be 400-600 J-20s produced in the coming years.

In comparison, a J-XY production run would be some 4x smaller at 100-150 aircraft.

The timescale matters very much for the J-XY. You mention 20 or 50 years as a requirement. If you're looking at these timescales, why bother producing a J-XY now, when there are more important priorities.
so let me sum up, what you said is that UCAV is going to be so advanced in the next 15 years and been able to replace the manned fighter?

Well, yes and no. Basically I agree there might be 600+ J-20 in the future. but been working with machine learning or so-called "AI", for a few years, it's still very difficult for me to imagine UAV could completely replace manned jet in only 15 years. At best it will be like many J-20s/F-35s/Su-57s or even large stealth aircraft (with the shape like B2) fly alone with a lot of drones, and that's exactly what China/US/Russia is developing at the moment. Thus for me, a stealth fighter will still be able to play a pretty crucial role as a data center and decision-maker in the front line network, therefore as long as Chinese want to extend their reach beyond 1-2 island chain (which I personally believe they definitely wish to and have already been working so hard on it), they need a J-XY.

By saying 20/50 years, I was only trying to emphasis the PLAN's ambition for a blue water navy. So if they could operate that an aircraft carrier group far away from the mainland in the 10-15 years, I think J-XY is a very economical cost for them to pay.

Also, it gives me the impression that you think China can't develop a 5th gen carrier-borne fighter and other types of equipment like a next-gen fighter at the same time? Well, let's just say this, it's almost 2020, not 90s anymore, like the US, China is now able to R&D so many toys at the same time without picking an "important priorities". Probably not as hyper as YF-22 vs YF-23 or X-35 vs X-32, but just recall what they show off in the UAV thread recently, it is pretty impressive that so many institutions have the resources to present their own work.
 
Top