J-XY - maybe J-35 - next generation carrier-borne fighter


SinoSoldier

Colonel
Well that may be true, my argument is if you think in PLAN's shoes, J-XY is not necessary an urgent need, but a nice-to-have. CV-17 is not going to be used to invade the US west coast. All the potential targets for China's carrier fleet can be handled well within the capabilities of J-15. So from the risk point of view, upgrade the J-15 is much lower and therefore more valuable than making all new J-XY immediately. I'd rather see them spend more time on J-XY, especially the engine.

Once the Navy makes an explicit announcement, or we see the actual J-XY plane, we will know better. For now we can speculate but nothing is firm.
Let's just put it this way: if there is a need for the J-15, then the J-XY would do a far better job of meeting that need. If there is zero need for a J-XY, then there is no need for newer J-15s.
 

kurutoga

Junior Member
Registered Member
Let's just put it this way: if there is a need for the J-15, then the J-XY would do a far better job of meeting that need. If there is zero need for a J-XY, then there is no need for newer J-15s.
Not arguing about that. There is no rush in the J-XY project. AVIC can throw a celebration party after the project's success.

This sort of weibo announcement, just to feed the rumor mill, is pre-mature and unnecessary. We should not read too much into it. If I am PLAN I would let AVIC know they are violating the NDA.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
Not arguing about that. There is no rush in the J-XY project. AVIC can throw a celebration party after the project's success.

This sort of weibo announcement, just to feed the rumor mill, is pre-mature and unnecessary. We should not read too much into it. If I am PLAN I would let AVIC know they are violating the NDA.
Unnecessary or not, it's not a violation of any regulation unless the PLAN made AVIC sign an NDA.

Do NDAs even exist in a state like China?
 

taxiya

Major
Registered Member
Regarding the webo post, let's take a look at it in its entirety. Apparently it is not "AVIC forcing PLAN with FC-31". There are lots of aircraft in the post.

Another thing, there is no NDA in China because AVIC and PLAN are like two departments in the same company. Who can say what are determined by their common boss the CMC, just a phone call or memo would suffice.

The thing is that it is the new era of social media, China is not exception, nor is state entity. Their weibo account are manned by boys or girls who may publish anything in any style so long as they do not cross political line or leak classified data. That also means that we should not take their posts too seriously.

upload_2019-12-20_0-8-42.png
 

taxiya

Major
Registered Member
AVIC's official Weibo account strongly hinted that a FC-31 derivative will become a naval aircraft:
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Huitong's updated entry:
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(Click on the hyperlink on "J-35" to view the image)



Translation:


The Weibo post included some other images of other existing aircraft, but I didn't include them to save space and to get to the point.

What do you make of it?
But excluding other aircraft from the post would certainly remove the context, thus convey a message different from the intention of the post.

Among the other aircraft, JL-9 is meant for CV, there is also the ship borne AWAC.
 

stannislas

Junior Member
Registered Member
Regarding the webo post, let's take a look at it in its entirety. Apparently it is not "AVIC forcing PLAN with FC-31". There are lots of aircraft in the post.

Another thing, there is no NDA in China because AVIC and PLAN are like two departments in the same company. Who can say what are determined by their common boss the CMC, just a phone call or memo would suffice.

The thing is that it is the new era of social media, China is not exception, nor is state entity. Their weibo account are manned by boys or girls who may publish anything in any style so long as they do not cross political line or leak classified data. That also means that we should not take their posts too seriously.

View attachment 56053
seriously stop your speculations on AVIC or PLAN and their relationship, don’t act like a fanboy on weibo or Cjdby and picture two enormously large organizations as child play

and also, of course there are NDAs, just because you don’t know doesn’t make it not exist, there are tones of NDAs...
 

AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
Not arguing about that. There is no rush in the J-XY project. AVIC can throw a celebration party after the project's success.

This sort of weibo announcement, just to feed the rumor mill, is pre-mature and unnecessary. We should not read too much into it. If I am PLAN I would let AVIC know they are violating the NDA.
Agreed.

How many J-XY jets would actually be needed?

With an additional 2-4 carriers in the next 15 years - call it up to 150 new fighter jets would be needed.

If you were to begin an entirely new programme, a small production run of 150 jets means:
1. the upfront development costs are going to be really high, in comparison to the production costs
2. the production costs are going to be high because of the small production run.
2. the production run will also begin and finish quickly

I don't see that as being enough aircraft to justify an entirely new programme, since UCAVs will likely be part of the airwing as well, and they already have the J-15.

So for the 003 carrier, I reckon they'll fill it with newer catapult-capable J-15s.

Then for the 004 carrier, stealth UCAVs may be ready in the 2025 timeframe, so production switches to this.
Then the 003 and 004 airwings are reshuffled to be mixed J-15/UCAV.

The technical requirements for carrier and land-based UCAVs are similar enough that you could have a common programme or subsystems to achieve greater scale.
 

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