Agreed.Additionally, I want to add that it is very very optimistic (pie in the sky level of optimism, frankly) to expect that 003 could be sufficiently combat capable in 2024 to require a full airwing of combat aircraft.
Let's say 003 gets launched mid 2022 as some are rumouring. You will still require at least a year of fitting out. Let's say one year, as an optimistic number for the sake of discussion. Then you reach mid 2023, and 003 is ready for sea trials by the shipyard.
Going by past practice for CV-16 and CV-17, that will require at least one year again which again is a very optimistic number (time taken for CV-16 between first sea trial and commissioning was 1 year 1 month, for CV-17 it was 1 year and 8 months).
Then, you reach mid 2024, and carrier 003 will enter service in the PLAN.
But entering service with the navy doesn't mean you immediately are able to field a full airwing of combat aircraft. A whole list of other workup and exercises have to be undertaken first, the same way for any other new class of ship:
- Naval trials for key subsystems on the ship
- Training for the initial first generation crew and "writing the book" for operating the ship and operating and maintaining the subsystems
- Pilot familiarization and integration with the carrier's relevant flight related subsystems (in this case, the newest and most important subsystem being the catapults)
- Gradual workup of sophistication and complexity of the ship's subsystems and airwing
That entire process likely will take at least two years, if we are being super optimistic. Most likely, it will take even longer than that.
Chances are, it will be 2027 until the carrier 003 is ready to take on a full airwing and be actually have a crew, flight deck personnel, and at least one cohort of pilots, able to actually be able to effectively conduct operations with a full combat airwing.
Now, what does this mean for J-XY/35? Well of course for the PLAN it would still be beneficial to continue as reasonably quickly as they can with the testing, development, and production of the aircraft, because doing as much of that earlier means that they can de-risk the J-XY/35 earlier and enable smoother integration of J-XY/35 with the 003.
And needless to say, the earlier they have more J-XY/35 in production, the earlier they can start training pilots and the earlier they can be able to integrate J-XY/35 into 003's airwing.
Additionally, J-XY/35 might have the capability to operate off the STOBAR carriers (CV-16, CV-17) as well, which would actually prove to be a very useful capability for them as well, even if J-XY/35 may not be able to reliably takeoff with full MTOW under all circumstances. After all, a 5th generation fighter like J-XY/35 taking off with only maximum "internal" payload (full internal fuel, full weapons bay capacity) is still significantly lower than its overall full MTOW (which includes maximum external payload as well). If J-XY/35 is able to take off reliably from CV-16/17 with full internal fuel and a full internal weapons load, that would still be a very capable aircraft.
.... But all the above does not mean that we should expect 003 to be ready to "receive" a full complement of combat aircraft or full airwing, by 2024 or 2025.
003 would only be operationally ready to receive a full complement of aircraft by 2027 likely at the earliest, and even then its combat aircraft complement almost certainly will not be fully J-XY/35, but rather a split between J-XY/35 and J-15B.
Even if 003 had done quite a lot of fitting out jobs as expected, 2024 in service is still time urgent for a new CTOBAR carrier.
2027 may have a full complement of J-15B plus some J-35s.
J-15B will achieve IOC earlier due to enough pilots and experiences gained from J-15s on CV-16&17.
J-35 is brand new and without such human conditions.
It requires extra time for debugging and adaption. 2027 with IOC is a pretty good progress.
