J-XY - maybe J-35 - next generation carrier-borne fighter


Phead128

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
This may be a circumstantial evidence, but I think it is meaningful.
Despite all this 'Circumstantial evidence' you cited ...

Perhaps you forgot the most important circumstantial evidence of them all: High-res photos of almost complete Chinese EMAL CATOBAR carrier that is missing an 5th gen fighter complement.

You are right! "This maybe just circumstantial evidence, but I think is meaningful." High or low-res doesn't really matter, the combined context and circumstances (e.g., Strained security environment and CATOBAR construction) makes it long overdue and perfectly expected given the timing and cadence of development.

There is nothing suspicious, China doesn't operate with "Spread my legs, inspect every scab and wart" level of granularity, at this point, should be almost common sense given the circumstantial evidence (e.g. EMAL CATOBAR nearing completion) and grainy low-res photos navalized prototype. 1+1=2.
 
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iantsai

Junior Member
Registered Member
Despite all this 'Circumstantial evidence' you cited ...

Perhaps you forgot the most important circumstantial evidence of them all: High-res photos of almost complete Chinese EMAL CATOBAR carrier that is missing an 5th gen fighter complement.

You are right! "This maybe just circumstantial evidence, but I think is meaningful." High or low-res doesn't really matter, the combined context and circumstances (e.g., Strained security environment and CATOBAR construction) makes it long overdue and perfectly expected given the timing and cadence of development.

There is nothing suspicious, China doesn't operate with "Spread my legs, inspect every scab and wart" level of granularity, at this point, should be almost common sense given the circumstantial evidence (e.g. EMAL CATOBAR nearing completion) and grainy low-res photos navalized prototype. 1+1=2.
How can you think "China needs a new high performance stealth fighter aircraft" is the direct proof of "this new aircraft must be FC-31"?

It's like...hmmm, you think you should be promoted the next CEO of your company, because the executive officer is just retired, they need a new CEO and you need a a new job, so this job must be for you. ;)
 

Scchwerter_

Junior Member
Registered Member
How can you think "China needs a new high performance stealth fighter aircraft" is the direct proof of "this new aircraft must be FC-31"?

It's like...hmmm, you think you should be promoted the next CEO of your company, because the executive officer is just retired, they need a new CEO and you need a a new job, so this job must be for you. ;)
as stated many times in this post, the newly spotted aircraft has many distinct features that are unique to a carrier-borne jet. Frankly I cannot understand your persistant claim that the newly spotted aircraft is not the next-gen carrier fighter, because all evidence point toward it being exactly that, and no evidence points toward another possible candidate.
 

Phead128

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
How can you think "China needs a new high performance stealth fighter aircraft" is the direct proof of "this new aircraft must be FC-31"?
How can you think "China took high-res photos of J-20 and other prototypes" as direct proof of "this new aircraft cannot be naval FC-31 because of low-res grainy photo"?

Oh wait, you said it was Circumstantial evidence... (and a near complete EMAL CATOBAR is strong circumstantial evidence too!) The existence of EMAL CATOBAR is strong circumstantial evidence (not direct proof) that this must be the long rumored navalized FC-31.

It's like...hmmm, you think you should be promoted the next CEO of your company, because the executive officer is just retired, they need a new CEO and you need a a new job, so this job must be for you. ;)
It's like ... hmmmm, you think you should be promoted to CIA Director. Iansai can demand 'direct proof' and 'high-res photos' of China's most sensitive technology from open-source community, and CIA can just learn all China's secrets reading this forum. CIA should give you a job ;) 80% of PLA watching is piecing together rumors, grainy photos, and official statements like a puzzle.
 
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iantsai

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's ten years since FC-31 first showed up. There were three or four times when fans were all screaming "稳了", "钦定了", "上户口了", "一鸡四吃" etc. but finally disappointed (for people who don't speak Chinese, it's enough just knowing the fact that there had been many times fans gossiping about the FC-31's approved by PLA and assigned a type name but finally disapproved during the past ten years.)

I wish this time it's not a new episode of the long lasting drama.
 

Chish

Junior Member
Registered Member
Reducing the size of the window seems like a step backwards. But I guess they had to put extra fuel to increase range. And those wafer thin wings do not seem to have any room for fuel. This will make the introduction of an F-35 like VR helmet more important.
I read somewhere it was for aerodynamic reason that they changed the shape of the cockpit.
 

Phead128

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
It's ten years since FC-31 first showed up.
10 years since a land-based FC-31 first showed up.

PLAAF showed no interest, but PLAN launched 2 aircraft carriers over those 10 years, so operational needs (i.e., circumstances) change over time? Plus, the SCS and Taiwan situation got really hot, so the security environment (i.e., circumstances) change over time?
There were three or four times when fans were all screaming "稳了", "钦定了", "上户口了", "一鸡四吃" etc. but finally disappointed (for people who don't speak Chinese, it's enough just knowing the fact that there had been many times fans gossiping about the FC-31's approved by PLA and assigned a type name but finally disapproved during the past ten years.)
Perhaps FC-31 with dual engines are costly to procure and maintain in meaningful numbers, defeating the purpose of "high-low" mix like F-22/F-35. WS-13E engines may not be mature then too. Therefore, the PLAAF showed no interest.

However, the PLAN only needs a handful of navalized FC-31 onboard their aircraft carriers, so the benefits outweighs the cost, as it would exponentially improve the airpower of carriers with a 5th gen onboard compared to J-15T.
I wish this time it's not a new episode of the long lasting drama.
Yes, this is true. However, I am MORE worried that China will soon have 3 aircraft carriers but not a single 5th gen prototype by now. J-15T is fine, don't get me wrong, but that's a lot of money spent on 3 aircraft carriers that doesn't have a potent 5th gen weapon to counter the US navy.
 
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sndef888

Senior Member
Registered Member
I wonder if the J-xx will be offered for export. If it is it'll basically steal the entirety of the world's non-US sales and be a death blow to Russia's fighter exports
 

Temstar

Major
Registered Member
I don't think it's time yet to rule out 一鸡四吃. After all at Zhuhai last year SAC staff were quoted as saying they are interested in developing an export model based on 2.0 if there are customers.
 

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