J-15 Carrier Multirole Fighter thread


Volpler11

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video at 00:28 we can see Hxxxxx13 corresponds to plane number 13, at 01:14 h1111107 corresponds to 07, at 01:17 H1111104 corresponds to 0105 which should be 04. Plane19 from Huiton's blog shows the its number ends with 19, also no23.

Thus I hypothesis that at 01:11 H1102171 corresponds to 71
 

Deino

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video at 00:28 we can see Hxxxxx13 corresponds to plane number 13, at 01:14 h1111107 corresponds to 07, at 01:17 H1111104 corresponds to 0105 which should be 04. Plane19 from Huiton's blog shows the its number ends with 19, also no23.

Thus I hypothesis that at 01:11 H1102171 corresponds to 71


Thanks and it fits to this tweet I made yesterday:


However any idea what this code could mean?

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plawolf

Brigadier
So does this mean the full compliment of fighters for both the CV16 & 17?
Both chassis are maxed out? *negating the base on shore*

On paper yes, and probably yes in practice, but a qualified one.

Given the inherent maintenance needs and downtime of planes, you ideally want 1 reserve regiment for every 3-4 operationally deployable ones.

The PLA generally have pretty good peacetime readiness figures owing to their higher number of maintenance personnel and no habit of long deployments as the USN does as standard (that means any issues with planes could be adequately looked at immediately, whereas air wings on months long deployments far from home may be constrained by parts and equipment available onboard ship, so may have stored up a number of planes with serious issues they could not fix while underway).

The fact that the PLANAF’s J15s are all so new would also help in terms of their availability rates.

So yes, I would expect that if the balloon goes up, both CV16 and 17 should be able to deploy with a full air wing with fairly short notice.

However, that’s probably not a long term sustainable position as their planes age and start to wear out (which might be a rapidly developing issue given how intensively they are using their J15s in training). It would be interesting to see if they invest in a 3rd J15A regiment before they switch to the catobar version for 003 and onwards. I would expect so.
 

Totoro

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Well, there's also downtime of carriers themselves. Especially once the third carrier is in service, it may be that the maintenance schedule will be arranged so one of those three carriers is pretty much always scheduled to be unavailable.

On the other hand, having carriers and investing so much in them, but not having AMPLE fighter replacements is not a wise investment. There's a reason why the US navy has room, in theory, to deploy some 50 fighter planes per carrier. Yet it has over 950 carrier borne combat planes. (that doesn't even take into account the fact maybe 7 of those 11 carriers could be deployed at the same time)
 

by78

Lieutenant General
Training on a rainy day.

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Deino

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Not sure if this is a trick again and in fact it is an artificially altered image of a model or a photoshop image or if it is indeed the first teaser for a J-15T - maybe a serial aircraft - … and as it seems it has a tail art.

(Image via @Oneninety from Weibo)

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Deino

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Not sure if this is a trick again and in fact it is an artificially altered image of a model or a photoshop image or if it is indeed the first teaser for a J-15T - maybe a serial aircraft - … and as it seems it has a tail art.

(Image via @Oneninety from Weibo)

View attachment 78776View attachment 78777


No reply, no reaction? ... no-one with an idea if real or faked again? :(
 

Bltizo

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No reply, no reaction? ... no-one with an idea if real or faked again? :(

I don't think there's anything that we can say until we get additional pictures, which might require us to wait a long time or to wait no time at all.

The level of effects applied on the picture makes it basically impossible to judge it for what it is worth, but it does seem to have certain expected features like catapult bar on the nosegear, wingtip pylons that aren't intended to be compatible with PL-8, and a radome which lacks a pitot tube. But whether these features are reflective of a real, undoctored photo, we can't say.

And as I wrote on twitter, one thing we do need to consider is whether Oneninety (or indeed, other more well known users on weibo) would post deliberately faked/obfuscated pictures on their accounts that are deliberately misleading, assuming they care about their reputations.


So yes, not much to say, no reaction at this stage, and there's no reasonable way for us to determine the authenticity of the image with what we have to work with.
 

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