J-15 carrier-borne fighter thread

[11226p]

No 63 at 0:16, another number ticked off.

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Edit:i think the video also feature x6 maybe 66? at 0:16 and 65? at 0:17,33

Not sure about 66, definitely looks like 65 so its very possible but I can't make out the first digit.

Even so we have been quite spoiled with J-15 serial number spottings since the first sighting of Batch 3 in October 2020. That's 20 in just around 3/4 of a year and has done a lot to raise our estimates of the J-15 fleet in a very short time span.

For now I will stick to the 24 Batch 1/2 + 10 3X serials and then the from 60 starting J-15 serials as the acknowledged ORBAT however a part of me is still curios whether or not there are some 4X, 5X and remaining unspotted 2X Batch 3 aircraft.

I am even more curios about production rate given that the Batch 3 production can't have started too long ago.

 

[Volpler11]

Not sure about 66, definitely looks like 65 so its very possible but I can't make out the first digit.

Even so we have been quite spoiled with J-15 serial number spottings since the first sighting of Batch 3 in October 2020. That's 20 in just around 3/4 of a year and has done a lot to raise our estimates of the J-15 fleet in a very short time span.

For now I will stick to the 24 Batch 1/2 + 10 3X serials and then the from 60 starting J-15 serials as the acknowledged ORBAT however a part of me is still curios whether or not there are some 4X, 5X and remaining unspotted 2X Batch 3 aircraft.

I am even more curios about production rate given that the Batch 3 production can't have started too long ago.

I am getting the impression that the video use clips taken on cv17, x6 should either be 36 or 66.

 

[Tsavo Lion]

To me, painted numbers on planes don't mean much- they could be used to hide their actual total numbers and/or in any case don't reflect the true figures & the number of mission ready J-15s at any given time. So, only guesstimates can be made of how many of them exist. Besides, their mock ups could be built & painted to create false targets.

 

[davidau]

To me, painted numbers on planes don't mean much- they could be used to hide their actual total numbers and/or in any case don't reflect the true figures & the number of mission ready J-15s at any given time. So, only guesstimates can be made of how many of them exist. Besides, their mock ups could be built & painted to create false targets.

Plain and simple...a load of codswallop!

 

[Tsavo Lion]

I don't care if some1 here wants to waste time & discuss their numbers based on painted numbers on airframes. I'm not 1 of them.
A better way to figure out how many J-15s will/should be there is to determine approx. how many they would be deploying on each of their CV/Ns & use for training on land.

 

[Blitzo]

I don't care if some1 here wants to waste time & discuss their numbers based on painted numbers on airframes. I'm not 1 of them.
A better way to figure out how many J-15s will/should be there is to determine approx. how many they would be deploying on each of their CV/Ns & use for training on land.

But how will we know how many they have on land or at sea at any one point in time? It's not like we have pictures of every airframe at any point at a given time, at every location.

The only way of trying to estimate a "floor" (aka minimum) for how many airframes that exist, is through using serial numbers, the same way we do with every other aircraft.


The PLA does not have any demonstrated record or history of altering numbers on aircraft (or ships, or other vehicles) for the purposes of hiding their numbers, and serial numbers have proven a reliable way of helping us form estimates for a long, long time.
In fact, the reason why serial numbers on new, important aircraft like J-20 are often hidden when wall climbers manage to get pictures of them, is because the serial numbers are so important and useful and have proven to be accurate in identifying units and forming minimum estimates of airframes.

 

[Tsavo Lion]

Good points, but they'll also have extra airframes for attrition, maintenance, weapons tests/trials, & demonstration teams.
A CV/N may leave with 25 J-15s & get 5 more while at sea; later some may get lost/grounded or return to land bases. All those numbers r not set in stone.

 

[Blitzo]

Good points, but they'll also have extra airframes for attrition, maintenance, weapons tests/trials, & demonstration teams.
A CV/N may leave with 25 J-15s & get 5 more while at sea; later some may get lost/grounded or return to land bases. All those numbers r not set in stone.

Yes, but my point is that even with all of that, there is no basis for you to argue that serial numbers "don't mean much" and that there is no history of serial numbers being altered to "hide their actual total numbers".

Serial numbers are a vital part of estimating the number of airframes that exist by providing an estimate for the minimum number of confirmed airframes.

 

[Tsavo Lion]

there is no history of serial numbers being altered to "hide their actual total numbers".

It's only recently that a cold war started between PRC & USA/NATO, so anything is possible.
They may also loose/reassign some &/ assign their numbers to new/different planes.

 

[Blitzo]

It's only recently that a cold war started between PRC & USA/NATO, so anything is possible.
They may also loose/reassign some &/ assign their numbers to new/different planes.

Until we have evidence of that happening, your claim that serial numbers are not useful, is untrue and frankly ignorant of the careful way in which PLA orbat tracking is done.

If you still hold your belief, then I have nothing more to say.