Iranian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

[dingyibvs]

According to Otter China will not sell J-10C unless Iran gives up nukes.

As I suggested before (possibly deleted by mods in the Israel-Iran thread) this is the optimal way to go about it. China would go all in on Iran under the pretext of denuclearization. The West wouldn't be able to say anything about it because that's been their stated main goal. Iran would need to go all in with China, no more dilly-dallying with the West or India though of course they can maintain cordial relations with them if desired.

The deal would be for more than just J-10CEs, it would be full suite of Chinese defense systems + economic investments. Once again though, Iran needs to go all in with a comprehensive partnership with China like Pakistan.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

According to Otter China will not sell J-10C unless Iran gives up nukes.

That's a polite way of China saying FU to Iran. It's a joke of an offer, there's no way Iran is giving up its nuclear enrichment program for stranded 4.5 gen fighters when its opponent has networked 5th gen fighters with modern systems warfare capabilities. Israel would do far worse to them than Pakistan did to India's Rafales. China would have to put up J-35AEs along with a comprehensive upgrades to Iran's conventional capabilities and a turnkey integration solution, which means Iran becomes a security client like Pakistan.

This isn't something the Iranian government will entertain. Even if it were willing, it requires the Ayatollah to turn to the public and say, "You know the nuclear program you suffered under decades of sanctions and repression for? Yeah, we're giving that up. Whoops."

 

[Jangar]

That's a polite way of China saying FU to Iran. It's a joke of an offer, there's no way Iran is giving up its nuclear enrichment program for stranded 4.5 gen fighters when its opponent has networked 5th gen fighters with modern systems warfare capabilities. Israel would do far worse to them than Pakistan did to India's Rafales. China would have to put up J-35AEs along with a comprehensive upgrades to Iran's conventional capabilities and a turnkey integration solution, which means Iran becomes a security client like Pakistan.

This isn't something the Iranian government will entertain. Even if it were willing, it requires the Ayatollah to turn to the public and say, "You know the nuclear program you suffered under decades of sanctions and repression for? Yeah, we're giving that up. Whoops."

My take is that is a fake offer if Iran accept , the Chinese show that their negociation worked while Trump and the rest of the West failed to denuclearize Iran but China did . Realistically China would never enforce this "denuclearization" while the Iranians would just continue their effort toward the nuke

 

[manqiangrexue]

From China's POV, its up to Iran to decide how to employ the things they buy. The question for China is what it can gain from Iran by sending such advanced weapons when no one in the world is willing to sell to them. Some huge strategic concession must be demanded before China sells anything. Basically Iran should become a Chinese client state before China agrees to sell the advanced stuff.

I think it's the exact opposite of this. China really does not want any country to buy its aircraft, fail to effectively employ them, and get them destroyed to China's embarrassment. This is likely even clearer after the Rafale Tandoori incident. There is basically nothing that Iran can offer China that China wouldn't be able to get through normal trade. If China arms Iran, the payment is a detail; China doesn't lack military funding. The purpose is for Iran to uproot US/Israeli domination of the middle-east and in order to achieve that, Iran must use Chinese weapons correctly. So, China doesn't seek any concession or massive payment from Iran, but it does demand that Iran undergo all the transformations and growing pains it must in order to use Chinese weapons effectively, or not at all.

 

[bebops]

Let say if Iran signed the J10c, How long does the full delivery take?

Russia signed the Su35 deal but none has been delivered so far. Russia needed it for themselves.

 

[bebops]

The deal would be for more than just J-10CEs, it would be full suite of Chinese defense systems + economic investments. Once again though, Iran needs to go all in with a comprehensive partnership with China like Pakistan.

Alot of business cooperation coming up not just J10c and military hardware. I can see Iran will choose Huawei for security hardware and software rather than any other countries.

I don't think warplanes are a game change vs Israel. Iran needs to order many truckloads of missile raw material so they can build tens of thousands of ballistic missile and launcher trucks. Israel is very scared and they called for cease fire.

 

[SanWenYu]

Iranian news media (Khorasan news per

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

) reports Iran is exploring a purchase of J-10CE, coincidental with Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh visit to to Chinese city of Qingdao for SCO summit meeting, where he met Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun of the PLA. (

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

)

This has apparently been picked up by some Western media too (

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

).

-----------------------

My two cents:

I would take this with a grain of salt until more information is available, preferably from reliable Chinese sources. These Iranian interest in J-10 as been reported for the past decade leading to nothing, although the recent SCO defense minister visit in Qingdao and Israel/US war does heightened the urgency for a deal.

On face value, multiple converging events makes this a natural possibility, from the end of UNSC weapons/arms sanctions on Iran in 2020, and inability of Russia to deliver Su-35 as ordered, demonstrated Israeli/US air superiority over Iran, as well as J-10CE's combat-tested results. Even if Su-35 does get fulfilled, J-10CE is a natural numerical filler for Iran's obsolete airforce, and arguably superior to Su-35 in avionics/sensors/missile... Even the basic presence of a 4.5 gen will complicate Israeli air operations. Now from China's perspective, it's really about payment (China does not want oil-jet barter, but cash preferably), and perhaps a more enduring pause on hostilities.

But why would China prefer cash to oil? What currencies are you thinking about, Russian ruble or Chinese yuan?

 

[lcloo]

But why would China prefer cash to oil? What currencies are you thinking about, Russian ruble or Chinese yuan?

China depend less and less on imported crude oil as they goes forward for more electrification of the country. Oil and gas contributed only around 2% in electricity power generation for the whole country in 2024.

One of the major consumer of oil and gas in China is motor vehicles and other transports (airplanes and ships). Around half of motor vehicles in China are still using petrol, but as more EVs go on to the roads, it will significantly reduce China's need for petrol.

Overall, Oil and gas contributed only around 29% of China's total energy consumption in 2024, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Enerdata.

The currency would preferably be Chinese Yuan.

 

[SanWenYu]

China depend less and less on imported crude oil as they goes forward for more electrification of the country. Oil and gas contributed only around 2% in electricity power generation for the whole country in 2024.

One of the major consumer of oil and gas in China is motor vehicles and other transports (airplanes and ships). Around half of motor vehicles in China are still using petrol, but as more EVs go on to the roads, it will significantly reduce China's need for petrol.
Overall, Oil and gas contributed only around 29% of China's total energy consumption in 2024, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Enerdata.

I know China's reliance on imported crude oil has probably peaked. But that's not the point.

The currency would preferably be Chinese Yuan.

The key problem is that Iran is tight on foreign reserves, including Chinese yuan, due to the sanctions. Oil and gas are the only things that Iran can realistically and practically trade for weapons with China (or any other country), in particular when the sanctions are not lifted.

 

[sutton999]

But why would China prefer cash to oil? What currencies are you thinking about, Russian ruble or Chinese yuan?

Iranian plays some tricks. "Pay" with frozen assets.

They don't want to pay for J10, at the same time as a leverage to negotiate with Russia.