Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)


james smith esq

Junior Member
Registered Member
Really why do someone here keeps harping on about india "rise" and please stop comparing India now with China of 20 years ago.

For one China don't openly deficate in the open 20 years ago, with very poor sanitation the likes of not seen in China since the beginning of the CCP rule, nor do China ride on top if the train.

Rest assured China is nothing like India 20 years ago!

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The last image appears to be from either Africa or even Haiti.
 

Richard Santos

Senior Member
Registered Member
india gdp=2,8 tn dollars
whole africa gdp: 2,6 tn dollars
India population=1,4 mld inhabitants
africa populatiun=1,2 mld inhabitants

Please Check its really and sadly (for india nationalists) true.


This is misleading in several ways.

1. GDP on a currency exchange rate bases does not reflect the scale of productivity, rather it is skewed by current account balance and differences of prices for goods not normally purchased or sold internationally. So using GDP in nominal dollars is not a valid measure of economic output or productivity.

2. On purchase power parity basis, which actually does measure the real size of the economy, India’s GDP in 2020 is about 9 trillion dollars. That of the continent of Africa is about 6 trillion dollars. So no, India is not poorer than Africa on per capita basis. By comparison, that of China in 2020 is about 21 trillion dollars, and that of the US 19 trillion dollars. But, adjusted for inflation, China’s GDP PPP was the same as India’s now as recently as 2007.

3. As recently as 2002, China’s overall GDP on PPP basis was lower than that or Africa. So less 20 years go, one could have ridiculed China’s economy with the same comparison you invoked, except the comparison could have been in PPP terms, which is valid and meaningful, unlike yours.

So again, looking even slightly below the surface, you see India is not nearly as far behind China as many people in China seems prefer to think. 15 - 20 years still seems a good number.

Oh, yes:

4. While Africa is certainly the poorest continent, and abject poverty is rampant in parts of the continent, major parts of Africa is not as poor as you think. On a purchase power parity basis, in 2020 the GDP per capita of 12 African countries was greater than $10,000, or richer, on per capita basis, than some European countries such as Ukraine and Kosovo. To give a comparative indication, Averaged overall, Africa’s GDP PPP per capita is roughly equal to that of Vietnam. So even when seen overall, the continent of Africa is poor, but not quite as poor as being suitable to use as stand in for abject poverty, as you so apparently gleefully think.
 
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vincent

Senior Member
Dunno where the comparison comes from BUT India does have around 26-27 years before its population peaks at 2047-2048. Which is around 20 years from the time China peaks. So if this demographic dividend is to pay off they need to hurry because even if the rate of decline isn't as significant (i.e. no one-child policy), the middle-income trap will still loom large.
It’s only a “dividend” if the populace is educated and productive, otherwise is just more dead weight
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
The last image appears to be from either Africa or even Haiti.

It's only meant to be representative. I can produce actual Indians deficating as there are plenty about. But really, what's the point .

@Richard Santos

This is a China rise impact thread. Please stop making assertions on your India. We all know what they are . It's a sxxthole. And we don't care. So please stop making off topic post.
 

sndef888

Junior Member
Registered Member
China enjoyed the 20 years of explosive, consistent 10+ percent growth because all the factors were fulfilled.

Cheap labour, decent enough infrastructure, decent enough legal framework, nearby rich markets to sell to, foreign investments into manufacturing, aggressive industrial policy

Other than the cheap labour, I do not see India meeting any of the factors. At least until 2040 at the very least, by which time manufacturing would have been moved to africa or automation and the cheap labour factor becomes no longer relevant.

Best case scenario, they continue to grow at a slow but steady 5-6% and get stuck in the middle income trap.
 

vincent

Senior Member
China enjoyed the 20 years of explosive, consistent 10+ percent growth because all the factors were fulfilled.

Cheap labour, decent enough infrastructure, decent enough legal framework, nearby rich markets to sell to, foreign investments into manufacturing, aggressive industrial policy

Other than the cheap labour, I do not see India meeting any of the factors. At least until 2040 at the very least, by which time manufacturing would have been moved to africa or automation and the cheap labour factor becomes no longer relevant.

Best case scenario, they continue to grow at a slow but steady 5-6% and get stuck in the middle income trap.
India hasn’t reached middle income yet
 

Richard Santos

Senior Member
Registered Member
India hasn’t reached middle income yet
India hasn’t reached middle income yet


Actually, According to the World Bank, it has. But world bank uses nominal dollars to measure GDP per capita, with the attendant problems of that method. If we list GDP per capita by purchase power parity, and break the list into same income groups the same way WB uses with nominal GEP per capital, India even manage to just barely make it into the upper middle income group.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Actually, here are some of the reasons, beside population, why India is better placed now than China had been in 1971, or even in 1981, to “rise” in the next 30-50 years.

1. india’s literacy rate in 2020 is 74%. Chinese literacy rate in 1971 is uncertain due to the chaos of the culture revolution. But officially Chinese literacy rate did not reach 74% until 1986. The annual growth in India’s literacy rate now is approximately the same as China’s had been between 1980-1990, when China’s overall literacy rate was the similar to India’s today.
2. The per capita productivity of Indian economy in 2020, measured by PPP, and adjusted for inflation is 6 times high than China’s in 1971, and about the same as China’s in 2004.
3. India’s total steel production in 2020 is 120 million tons, this is already second highest in the world. That is about 6 times China’s production in 1970, and about the same as China’s production in 1997. The compounded annual growth rates between 1997 and 2020 have similar to those of China’s over the same period.
4. India’s automobile production in 2020 was 5 million cars, about 25 times that of China’s on 1971, about the the same as China’s in 2004.
5. India’s total electricity generation in 2020 was about 2000TWh. China’s in 1971 is unclear, but China’s electricity generation also did not reach 2000TWh until 2004.
6. In 2020 8% of India’s population have 4 year university degrees. China’s figure in 1971 is unclear, but China did not reach 8% until 2011.

So broadly speaking, India is somewhere between 15 and 35 years behind China by different measures. There are more measures clustering around 15. India is not nearly as far behind as many people in China thinks.

I notice that you are simply comparing India in 2020 to China in 1970 whereas I was pointing out the advancement China made in 1970s compared to 1949.

Take literacy rate for example. China went from 20% literacy rate in 1949 to 68% in 1982. Over the same period, Indian literacy rate went from 18% to 43%. If we look at the most recent 30 years, China's literacy rate went from 78% to 97% while India's went from 48% to 74%.

Even in modern times, India is incapable of achieving the kind of growth China achieved in the 1970s.

Covid 19 further exposed the inadequacies of Indian society: rampant religious superstition, widespread ignorance of basic hygiene, and an incompetent government detached from reality.

Those are not the marks of a rising society. In the next 30 years, instead of a rising India, we will be seeing a decline of Indian status and influence around the world.
 

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