How will the Ukraine war end?

I wanted to make a poll to see what people thought the end game would be. Not what you think should happen, but what the Russian and Ukrainian military will be able to do before political will and economics become a factor. In other words what the border will look like when the fighting stops and there is a ceasefire or peace deal.

I tried to include as many options as possible, but obviously the final result may not fit exactly into one of these options. So pick the closet to what you think is going to happen. I didn't include fighting spreading to Russia or other territories, which could happen.

There's been very little commentary from both western and Russian military analysts to predict the end game, so here's your chance...

1. Ukraine recaptures all territory

2. Ukraine recaptures all territory except Crimea


3. Russia captures Donetsk and Lugansk, withdraws or is pushed back from other territories.


4. Russia captures all regions it currently occupies and goes no further



5. Russia captures all territory east of the Dniper


6. Russia captures most of Ukraine, landlocked/puppet state remains

7. Russia captures all of the Ukraine

I'd put it between 4-5. Russia is likely to be able to rout the Ukrainian forces in the field once the hardened Donbass positions are overrun, but taking more cities would be difficult and time consuming, particularly extreme anti-Russian cities in the north and central. I'd say at most, they could go as far as Kharkov, Mykolaiv and Dnipro, but not too much further. They're unlikely to lose territory though.

I am surprised so many ppl went with option 6.

Only way I see that happening with a mass mobilization or the wars drags on so long that ukraine literally loses like 70% of their male population like that one south america country.

FairAndUnbiased said:

I'd put it between 4-5. Russia is likely to be able to rout the Ukrainian forces in the field once the hardened Donbass positions are overrun, but taking more cities would be difficult and time consuming, particularly extreme anti-Russian cities in the north and central. I'd say at most, they could go as far as Kharkov, Mykolaiv and Dnipro, but not too much further. They're unlikely to lose territory though.

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No Odessa?

I chose #5 because it’s the closest to what I think will happen but it’s still a bit off. I don’t think the Russians are going to capture Kiev and Chernihiv areas in North-Central Ukraine again (at-least not without mobilization or more troops). I think a Novorossiya scenario is much more feasible. Russia would have to (1) complete the current Donbas offensive, (2) take over all of Zaporizhzhia (mainly the city is left), and (3) advance towards Nikolaev and Odessa to form a land corridor to Transnistria.

Aegis21 said:

I chose #5 because it’s the closest to what I think will happen but it’s still a bit off. I don’t think the Russians are going to capture Kiev and Chernihiv areas in North-Central Ukraine again (at-least not without mobilization or more troops). I think a Novorossiya scenario is much more feasible. Russia would have to (1) complete the current Donbas offensive, (2) take over all of Zaporizhzhia (mainly the city is left), and (3) advance towards Nikolaev and Odessa to form a land corridor to Transnistria.

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I only read it and when with 6 because similar to you of Novorossiya. Didn’t realize that 6 wasn’t Novorossiya.

why is there no Novorossiya landlocked option in the first place?

I voted 5, but not because I think Russia is highly likely to actually capture ALL of the land east of Deniper, but because it will advance considerably beyond 4.

PanAsian said:

No Odessa?

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might be too difficult given proximity to western Ukrainian supply lines and resupply from Romania.

the map used to illustrate option 5, russia occupying all lane east of dneiper, actually shows russia occupying considerable more than all the land east of Dneiper. it includes all the land on both sides of dneiper in those oblasts through the middle or which the dneiper runs.

the map used to illustrate option 4, russia occupying only what she occupied now and no more, actually colors red considerably more land that russia really does occupies now. it shows all the oblasts as completely occupied which currently russia only managed to occupy ports of.

these two maps makes the jump from option 4 to 5 seem less than it actually is, and understates the size of the remaining ukrainian state even if the russians succeed in reach the Dneiper along a relatively broad front.

I think strategically it makes sense for russia to push to occupy all of ukraine east of the Dneiper, but I doubt it can, at least not in the north around Kiev. In the south it makes sense for Russia to attempt to go beyond the Dneiper and take odessa. There is considerably more strategic merit in taking odessa than taking parts of east bank of the dneiper across from Kiev.