Personally I think the article was overly simple, with a few basic mistakes concerning weaponary...
"Taiwan's navy would have little to do in this war scenario, except sink like rocks. A few would shoot down a small number of the Chinese planes heading to Taiwan, but most would be taken out of action by China's numerous anti-ship missiles. Of particular annoyance is the nasty Russian-made Sunburn anti-ship missile (ASM). Three times as fast as the US Harpoon ASM, the Sunburn does not slam into the side of a ship like the Harpoon; instead, as it nears the target it rises above it and then dives straight down through the deck of the ship. The speed and angle of the attack make it nearly impossible to shoot down or to disable by electronic countermeasures or jamming."
I'm not going to comment about the author's remarks regarding the Taiwan Navy, but I recall that the description of the Sunburn precisely fits the characteristics of the Harpoon missile (except for speed)
In addition, I believe that the author's assumptions about the pro-KMT military is somewhat inaccurate. Granted the attitude of the conscript soldiers isn't positive, and it is generally true that most of the young men are eager to finish their Tour of Duty and get back to life/college/whatever but that does not completely discount them.
Considering that this potential decapitation strike is mostly in Taipei, a densely populated urban area, it is hard to predict that civilian casualties wouldn't be appalingly high. Regardless of how they feel about the current Taiwanese administration, I do not believe that any normal soldier wouldn't feel indignation towards those that would hurt their friends and family. (Believe it or not, there are soldiers whose homes are in Taipei that won't be pleased seeing Chinese soldieres)
The author acknowledges that the operation wouldn't simply be assassination, urban fighting would inevitably be involved. The area they are talking about is one of the busiest in Taipei. Unless the Chinese special forces are willing to discriminately and carefully pick out targets in the large crowds, it will be a bloody civilian massacre that will no doubt anger the Taiwanese, regardless of how they regard China.
Also, I believe that the "Identiy crisis within Taiwan's military" is not very accurate. The author states that "The idea that Taiwan is part of China still resonates strongly within the military"
My dad, some of my friends, my relatives (male) are all former Taiwanese soldieres, and though none of them are eager to get into a conflict with China (Anyone who is eager to kill should be ashamed of themselves) I don't believe that they wouldn't be willing to defend their homes and families in the case of an invasion, regardless of how they feel about China. My family has relatives in China, but I don't think that they'll feel great about innocent people in Taipei getting killed by accident. Feeling friendly towards China is different than feeling friendly to soldiers who come to your soil and kill people. Since Taiwan is so small there is also a certain chance that those people might be somebody you care about.
It is true that you cannot tell that Taiwan's soldiers are based in Taiwan solely based on their insignia, but it is not logical to directly conclude that the Taiwanese army regards itself as "The Army of Mainland China"
Some of the author's military analysis is relatively accurate, but I would have to strongly disagree with some of it, especially when he asserts that "everyone" knows the location of the PAC missile batteries and therefore they are easy to destroy and his proposed end of this conflict, the part in which he states that the new Pro-Beijing government will be swiftly sworn in.
Granted, speaking in terms of raw power and military force, there is no way Taiwan can hold off this strike should it happen according to this author's hypothetical plan. But a glance at history can relatively accurately tell us that the real problems would come AFTER military operations have ended.
"It is well known there are many pro-China legislators who have investments in China and more than a few who have had private meetings with Beijing officials. The inauguration would be conducted in the spotlight of the international media, giving it some psychological legitimacy in the eyes of the international community. There would be too many pro-China people in the US State Department - privately relieved the Taiwan issue was finally settled - to say anything in Taiwan's defense. "
The above statement is "true". What I mean by that the first part is true, and no doubt the inauguration would be in the international media. However, that would not give it definite psychological legitimacy, any more than the world believes that the puppet Iraqi government is completely "legitimate".
I disagree that there would be nobody willing to say something in Taiwan's defense.
Most of Taiwan's people simply want to get on with their lives and could care less about Taiwan/China relations, because they don't believe anything will happen, and if something DOES happen it will be peaceful.
But if you bring the horrors of war to their faces you'll never hear the end of it. Never mind that this hypothetical scenario is set only in Taipei, and the rest of Taiwan won't be directly affected. Taipei IS Taiwan's most important city, not to mention its largest city. The simple fact that civilian casualties will be unavoidable makes this a scary scenario.
The sad example of the US occupation of Iraq shows that if the civilian population is pissed off at you, you will have a hard time maintaining control. Even if you believe that all of Taiwan's people believe that Taiwan is "A part of Great China" you would be hard pressed to find someone who wouldn't be pissed off at being killed or having a loved one die for no real justifiable reason.
In short, I believe that the military aspects of the author's scenario are possible, but a smooth transfer of power and the future is inaccurate from my point of view.
I'm interested in hearing comments from the rest of you... this is certainly an interesting albeit inaccurate article...