History of South American nation inter-rivalry and arms buildup

This thread will be about the history of South American inter-rivalry and arms buildups with respect to them.

The first post will be a copy of a post MirageDriver posted on the Central and South American Military News Thread.

Such a discussion is out of place there, but can go one here in the Military History Forum.

This is the post from MirageDriver from which the discussion can start...and to which he can add his other parts.

Miragedriver said:

I sat down the other day and thought that it would be a good idea to write a brief history of South America and the interrelationships between each nation, so over this next week I will fatigue you all with my end less dribble of a university professor. But hopefully we will all learn a bit more about this section of the world that is as misunderstood as the African continent.

I will divide the presentation into several sections that will include a history of the past conflicts in the region and the relationships between nations; arms purchases and domestic production; and finally what the future may hold. I will try to be as un-bias as possible. I would like making this educational and open for discussion. Hope you all enjoy. As always it is a pleasure to openly debate topics on this forum. Thanks.


PART ONE: BRIEF BACKGROUND
In 2011 then Secretary of State

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for his extravagant purchases of Russian and Chinese military equipment, arguing that this could begin a cascading arms race in South America. The statement has added fuel to the ongoing discussions about what direction South America’s rearmament, or arms increase, is taking and what this could come to mean for the security of the region. Some people, including myself, fear an inter-state war could break out due to long standing feuds, an increase in force projection and geopolitical tensions.

Venezuelan Su-30 on flyby

The ongoing reports about major purchases by Venezuela, Brazil, and Chile tend to blur the actual geo-security situation in the region, as several countries -- with Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay as the most prominent examples; have carried out only limited military acquisitions. The common perception is that an arms race raises the possibility of conflict. However, the reality in South America (and Central America as well) is that interstate warfare has seldom occurred since World War II; it has come very close at times (we will discuss this later) Additionally, it is misleading to assume that all South American countries are carrying out their arms purchases with the same gusto as Brazil, Chile, and Venezuela.

Chilean F-16 preparing for training mission

It is generally assumed, by most outsiders, that South America is either already engaged in an arms race or is about to enter one. This view is somewhat inconsistent because the start of an arms race is not easily defined, though one could say I was when Venezuela purchased Su-30s or Chile Purchased F-16s. It could also be argued that what is occurring is not so much a general arms race as it is a product of certain militaries capitalizing on weak civilian governments (like an updated version of former Uruguayan

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in 1973) to increase their defence budgets. Furthermore, in spite of domestic security issues in several South American countries, most notably the insurgent movements in Colombia and Peru, the reality is that full scale interstate wars in the region have been notably scarce in the past few decades, which raises the question: is interstate warfare necessarily the future of South America? We will discuss whether an arms race could lead to general warfare in future instalments, maybe later this evening or tomorrow.

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PART TWO: PAST CONFLICTS

Wars since 1941 in Latin America
When discussing whether or not South America is headed towards an arms race, or already involved in one, tend to raise fears of an eventual interstate conflict. However, it is often overlooked that wars between Latin America nations have seldom occurred since World War II, but they have come close to beginning several times. Here is a brief listing of them:

1) 1941: . Ecuadorian troops invaded northern Peru but were successfully repelled. The Peruvian army took the offensive and temporarily occupied the Ecuadorian province known as El Oro.


2) 1969: The or “100 Hour War” between Honduras and El Salvador.


3) . Military operations occurred but were short lived only lasting a few weeks at a time and casualties were relatively minor. The hostilities were limited to specific areas in the border highlands in Paquisha and Cenepa.

4) . Though one of the combatants was not a Latin American state, this war is still worth mentioning. Argentina, then under military junta, decided to invade the Malvinas (Falklands), which had been a matter of dispute for decades with the United Kingdom. The UK forces defeated Argentines, and speeding the dissolution of the Argentina junta and expedited the country’s return to civilian rule.


5) U.S. military operations: For the sake of argument, it is worth mentioning that the U.S. carried out military operations in the , and .

6) Also, it should be noted that the last “great” conflict in South America was the .

Historic Conflicts
As different analyses of the mounting arms race point out, there are some ongoing disputes between different South American countries, especially between Venezuela (at heads of state and upper governmental levels) and Colombia; between Peru and Chile; Bolivia and Chile and Argentina and Chile; just to name a few. Below is a brief list of ongoing tensions and disputes between Latin American countries:

1) : Historical tensions tracing back to the 19th century War of the Pacific include an ongoing Santiago-initiated dispute over the maritime border between the neighbouring countries.

2) : La Paz presses demands that Chile should return the coastal territories it has occupied since the War of the Pacific.


3) : Both countries dispute their exact borders; there is a disagreement about the dividing line along the Southern Patagonian ice fields. In 1894, the countries signed a Peace and Friendship Treaty. However, in 1978 the countries seemed to be drifting towards war, but the Pope intervened and mediated the fracas. It is all but certain that Pinochet provided Margaret Thatcher’s government with intelligence that helped London defeat Argentina in the Falklands War (discussed at the end of part three). There is ongoing tension between Argentina and Chile over the Antarctic, due to Chile and England having overlapping claims on Argentine


4) Peru and Ecuador: Even though there has not been warfare between the two countries since the 1995 incident in the Cenepa region and the resulting 1998 Treaty, tensions have occasionally arisen. Peru is preoccupied over the fact that Ecuador is a close ally of Chile, Peru’s historical nemesis.

5) : Caracas historically has claimed up to 1/3 of Guyanese territory, dating back to the end of the 19th century. In 1966, after a tripartite agreement between Venezuela, Guyana and the United Kingdom, Venezuelan soldiers and civilians entered Guyanese territory, namely the Guyanese side of the Ankoko Island. The Venezuelans built an airstrip there, as well as a military outpost. In February 1970, Venezuelan and Guyanese soldiers engaged in a firefight, though no injuries were reported. Fears of a Venezuelan build-up at the time did not translate into major military operations. In 2007, a Venezuelan general and 36 soldiers entered Guyanese territory apparently with the intention of blowing up an improvised dam set up by illegal gold diggers. It was never confirmed why this operation took place, and whether Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez had given the order to enter Guyana.

6) : These countries have a historical boarder dispute in which Guatemala claims major amounts of Belizean territory. Land claims have moderated however, as conciliatory discussions have taken place over the past few decades. Belize declared independence from its protector, the United Kingdom in 1975, but Guatemala only recognized Belize as a sovereign entity in 1994. However, the two countries have never lapsed into armed conflict against each other.

7) : Both countries claim the ownership of the San Andres and Providencia Islands.

8) : While these countries have had amicable relations for the most part, military build-ups have caused some concern due to the persisting memory of the bloody 1932-1935 Chaco War. Bolivia became concerned after Paraguay hosted a number of military exercises with U.S. National Guard units. More recently, Paraguay asked for more information about Bolivian military purchases from Russia and China after news began to circulate of a $100 million credit issued by Moscow for the purpose of weapons’ acquisitions mentioned after in this article.

Next: PART THREE: Close Calls and the South Atlantic War


I will now get back to bottling my Malbec

Miragedriver said:

PART TWO: PAST CONFLICTS
...

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I tried to check on the status of "the most exotic to me" (in the first instant I thought like what's Miragedriver talking about?! as I know there're several countries in between Colombia and Nicaragua ... but I tend to forget the sea-border):

Miragedriver said:

7)

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: Both countries claim the ownership of the San Andres and Providencia Islands.
...

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it seems Nicaragua by now lost most (if not all) its claims in The Hague (including the tiny )

PART THREE: Close Calls and the South Atlantic War

Over the past several decades, there have been a numerous instances in which South American countries came very close to engaging in open warfare, but hostilities never actually broke out. An example is the historically and turbulent Colombian and Venezuelan relationship. Although it was difficult to imagine actual clashes between the two governments before Uribe and Chavez (now Maduro) held office, there has been at least one situation that could potentially have led to an armed conflict. In August 1987 the Colombian warship Caldas entered the oil-rich Venezuelan Gulf, an area that both countries claimed as their own. Venezuelan president at the time, Jaime Lusinchi, reacted by deploying a squadron of the country’s F-16 planes to perform low fly overs on the Colombian warship.


Venezuelan F-16


Tensions reached their peak when the Colombian frigate Independiente and also entered the Gulf, ready to strike at any Venezuelan target that presented itself. The (OAS) Organization of American and then managed to act as mediators; finally convincing Colombia to pull its naval units back, and allowing the situation to cool off.

Peru and Chile also came close to armed conflict in the 1970s when Peru was under the dictatorships General Juan Velasco Alvarado and Chile by General Augusto Pinochet (installed by a CIA sponsored coup). In August 1975, it was widely expected that both countries would resort to open warfare, as Peru had purchased massive amounts of Soviet military equipment (Su-17 aircraft, Mi-8 helicopters and T-55 tanks), and Velasco was planning to attack Chile to regain Peru’s lost territories from the War of the Pacific (see part two). However, the attack failed to occur due to last minute problems within the Velasco government.


Peruvian Su-17


Peruvian T-55


Peruvian Mi-8

Argentina and Chile: also came close to armed conflict in the 1978 in the Beagle conflict the possession of Picton, Lennox and Nueva islands and the scope of the maritime jurisdiction associated with those islands that brought the countries to the brink of war in 1978.
The islands are strategically located off the south edge of Tierra del Fuego and at the east end of the Beagle Channel. The Beagle Channel, the Straits of Magellan and the Drake Passage are the only three waterways between the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean in the southern hemisphere.
After refusing to abide by a binding international award giving the islands to Chile, the Argentine junta pushed the controversy to the brink of war in 1978 in order to produce a boundary consistent with Argentine claims. The Beagle conflict is seen as the main reason for Chilean support to the United Kingdom during the Falklands Warof 1982.


Map of Tierra del Fuego


Disputed access to the Atlantic Ocean

Throughout the 1960s-1980s, there was a period of relative calm. The exception was the Argentine-British war over the Falklands/Malvinas Islands. The cause of this war is from the Argentine military junta’s desperation to divert national attention away from the ongoing social crises taking place within Argentina, such as its rapidly deteriorating economy with hyper inflation and mass protest against military rule and civilian disappearances.

I don’t want to rehash this war or begin any debates regarding this conflict since it tends to bring out the worst in some SD member. We will just leave it at the above paragraph

Next: PART FOUR: THE PLAYERS


I will now get back to bottling my Malbec

PART FOUR: THE PLAYERS (Major and medium spenders)


Major spenders: Brazil, Chile and Venezuela

Without any doubt, the major military purchases by these three countries are generally providing the axis around which statements concerning a South American arms’ race/rearmament are being made.

Brazil, the regional powerhouse, has embarked on an ambitious military program in recent years. Its defence officials have purchased 250 Leopard II battle tanks, which will become the cornerstone of its domestic protection system. Additionally Brazil recently announced that it will begin production of the Saab JAS-39 multi-roll aircraft. As part of its growing relations with France, Brazil will also be provided with technological aid to build four Scorpene-type diesel-electric submarines, as well as one nuclear-powered submarine, which will be Brazil’s first. Issues continue to arise concerning the country’s aviation inventory. According to reports, Brazil’s air fleet amounts to over 720 planes, however, around 37 percent of them are older aircraft that are grounded and scheduled for replacement. Back in September of 2009 Brazil has also agreed to purchase the Eurocopters, which will become the country’s new medium-lift helicopter (according to Defense Industry Daily, the Navy and Army will each acquire 16, while the Air Force will be receiving 18).

Chile has made very aggressive military purchases in the past decade. Because of its geographic separation from Brazil and Venezuela, along with its close political ties to Washington, it is not regarded as a major security threat by the international media, though its immediate neighbours, Argentina, Bolivia and Peru, might argue quite differently. The numerous purchases made by the Chilean military include: 12 Super Tucano planes from Brazil, four dozens F-16 aircraft from the U.S. and Holland (being upgraded with Israeli avionics, two Scorpene-type submarines from France, 120 Leopard II tanks from Germany, four Dutch frigates, four English Frigates and 200 American Humvees from General Motors.

Venezuela is regarded by American policymakers as the centre of development of a regional arms race. The late Hugo Chavez has made some of the most public purchases of military equipment in South America, particularly from Russia and China. From China, Caracas has obtained radar equipment (10 JYL-1 radars), and from Russia, Venezuela has purchased Sukhoi Su-30 aircraft, helicopters (models Mi-26, Mi-35, Mi-17 and Mi-28N), 92 T-72 tanks and 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles. In addition, Russia is helping to build a Kalashnikov rifle factory in Venezuela, along with an additional facility to produce ammunition from China.

However, not all of this is new. Caracas’ plans for buying a Russian S-300 air-missile system have been around for several years. In a 2008 article in the Russian news agency Ria Novosti, former Air Force commander General Anatoly Kornukov explained that “needless to say, should S-300s be delivered to Venezuela, they would effectively strengthen its defence capability, and it would not be easy for its possible adversaries to punish the country by striking at its oil fields.”

Medium spenders with long simmering armed conflicts: Colombia and Peru
Colombia has carried out a number of military acquisitions, most notably the Black Hawk helicopters from the U.S., as well as Super Tucanos and Kfir C-12 aircraft from Israel. The Army alone possesses 50 Black Hawk helicopters and 23 Russian MI-17 helicopters. Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) delivered 13 upgraded Kfir multi-roll aircraft to the Colombian Air Force in a contract that cost $150 million. The seven installations where the U.S. will base its forces within Colombia will add a further deterrent against any country wishing to attack it.

Peru’s major purchases in the last several years have been four Lupo-class Italian frigates to upgrade its navy. The country has also has obtained a number of Sea King helicopters from the U.S. to use for spare parts and emergency operations. The deal was part of Washington’s surplus program and cost Peru $6 million. In addition, Russia has repaired and upgraded 13 of the country’s Mi-17 helicopters.

Colombia and Peru are placed in a unique mid level category of the region’s arms race, as both countries have ongoing internal armed conflicts anti-government terorrists. Colombia’s war against the FARC and ELN continues, as well as its far-less vigorously pursued struggles against the powerful drug cartels (now, fortunately, somewhat smaller than their predecessors from the 1980s), and the activities of rogue paramilitary squads like the Aguilas Negras (Black Eagles). Similarly, in Peru, the attack on a Mi-17 Peruvian Air Force helicopter by members of the Andean terrorist movement Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path), proved that the terrorist group’s remnant factions in the VRAE (Valley of the Apurimac and Ene Rivers) are far from defeated, even if their current force consists of merely around 200 combat troops. A brigade of Peruvian Special Forces has joined regular troops in military operations in the VRAE in that region.

Peru’s purchases of the Lupo frigates can certainly be viewed as part of the general South American arms race, especially when compared to Chile’s aggressive purchases. The same can be said for Colombia’s Kfir warplanes. Nevertheless, before Colombia and Peru can be regarded as regional security threats, like Chile or Venezuela, they first need to deal with their internal security conflicts. A common argument among militaries is that they are reluctant to be involved in two-front wars due to the incredible drain on resources and other complications that they bring; therefore, it is illogical to foresee Colombia and Peru triggering regional war while fighting their own internal conflicts against the FARC, ELN, and a resurgent Sendero Luminoso, respectively. It is for these reasons that both Colombia and Peru represent special circumstances in South America, as their military purchases are generally aimed inwards to deal with insurgent / terroist movements, and not as much to guard their respective borders.

Medium spenders: Bolivia and Ecuador
Both Bolivia and Ecuador have carried out, or are planning to carry out, some significant military purchases. Ecuador’s major acquisitions have been a fleet of 24 Super Tucanos from Embraer in Brazil. In addition, the country has acquired six unmanned Israeli surveillance drones for patrolling purposes. From the point of view of the Peruvian military, Ecuador poses a significant threat to Peru, due to its growing close relationship with Chile. In 2008, there were reports that Asmar, one of Chile’s shipping companies, was upgrading two Ecuadorian Type 209-1300 submarines, while Ecuador had purchased two Chilean frigates. Additional Chile gave Ecuador 130 of its retired Leopard I main battle tanks.

Bolivia has obtained a $100 million credit from Russia that will allow it to fulfil the military’s aspiration for more modern equipment. According to a recent MercoPress report, “the government of President Evo Morales has come under strong criticism for having approved the purchase of six Chinese built K-8 aircrafts with the purpose of combating the drug trade and to control “sensitive regions” of the country where the drug cartels prosper and have great mobility.” The six aircraft will cost $57.8 million. A recent report in Bolivia’s daily La Razon verifies that the army is also planning to purchase new standardized rifles. The military is still debating where to acquire the AK-47 for Russia (or Venezuela) or the FAL produced in Argentina.

NEXT: PART FIVE: THE PLAYERS (Low and Minor spenders)



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PART FIVE: THE PLAYERS (Low and Minor spenders)

Low spenders: Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay
Twenty years ago, Argentina was one of Latin America’s most hegemonic powers. Throughout its lengthy period of military ascendancy as well as afterwards, the country flirted with the novel idea of developing a nuclear weapons program. The country’s military has never quite overcome the legacy of the military dictatorship and its humiliating defeat in the 1982 Falklands War. The 2001-2002 meltdown of the country’s financial system all but eliminated the country’s military programs, leaving them at their lowest point. Recent presidents, particularly the Kirchner’s (both Nestor and Christina), have proven particularly wary of scaling up the military’s power and are, in fact, still pushing for the prosecution of junta-era leaders as human rights abusers. From an acquisitions point of view, Argentina has severely slashed its military purchases. Plans for replacing its Mirage III and Mirage V aircraft (which retired in December of 2013) have been put on hold indefinitely, along with ambitions to acquire more Russian Mi-17 helicopters. A local project to produce a light terrain military vehicle, dubbed VLE Gaucho, has been dealt a set back after Brazil backed out of the program and a lack of an adequate budget from the Argentine government.


VLE Gaucho

Since there is no money to purchase new equipment the military has resorted to life extension programs. A report in the September/October 2009 issue of Defence Helicopter about the role of helicopters in South American armies explained that Argentina a upgrading up to 40 of its UH-1 helicopters in an effort to extend their life by 20 years. An August 2009 article by the Aerospace Daily & Defense Report found that with “…at least 70 percent of defense spending going toward personnel (both salaries and pensions), little remains for weapons acquisitions.” Argentina’s procurement has had to rely on the second hand market, such as the case of its acquisition of ex US Navy UH-3H Sea King utility helicopters to replace its losses, and the 4 SAAB 340B (which where to be made AWAC aircraft by Embraer in Brazil, but alas there is no money). Basically the military (Army, Air Force and Navy) wants more but there’s simply no money provided by the government. It wall basically take and external threat (most likely from Chile) for them to come to the realization that they are in serious danger.

Uruguay and Paraguay also have made only limited purchases. Lately, Uruguay’s military seems to resemble that of a laid-back national security force, its use limited to humanitarian missions and peacekeeping operations for the United Nations. In May of 2008, Uruguayan blue helmets serving in the UN mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo received UN medals for distinguished services. Uruguay also made headlines recently as a result of lifting its ban on gays in the military, a law enacted by the 1973-85 military dictatorship. In 2007, there was a bizarre case of the Uruguayan military trying to buy 18,000 Iranian HK2002 rifles (similar to the Kalashnikov assault rifle), with Venezuela serving as an intermediary. Uruguayan parliamentary investigators blocked the attempted purchase, according to an October, 2007 Washington Times report. Like Argentina, the Paraguayans don’t have the funds to modernize their military, they’ll probably resort to Brazil for aid or cheap deals and hand me downs.”


Uruguay on UN peace keeping mission

Minor spenders: Guyana, Suriname
Even though Guyana and Suriname usually deal more with the Caribbean than with the rest of the continent, they are both geographically part of South America. As a first step in joining the South American integration process, the two states joined the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and the South American Defense Council. Militarily speaking, both countries do not pose a significant security threat to their immediate neighbors (Venezuela, Brazil, and French Guyana). Furthermore, both countries are primarily focused on domestic security issues, particularly drug trafficking. Regarding Guyana, a 2008 Caribbean Media Corporation article explains how the Bharrat Jagdeo administration spent almost half a million dollars to purchase forensic equipment, firearms, and ammunition for the local police to tackle local gang activity. In 2008, Brazil offered Guyana more security equipment, Armour cars EE-9, Global Positioning Systems, night goggles, and helmets. Brazil not only has political influence in Guyana, but also to a significant degree over Suriname as well.


EE-9

Meanwhile, Suriname’s military is increasingly turning to both the U.S. and China in an effort to improve its bilateral military and economic options. However, weakening these attempts is the former notorious military strongman, Desire Bouterse, who has been on trial for years for abuses, including murder committed during his dictatorship.

Of the twelve countries on the continent, at least five have carried out a relatively low amount of military purchases in recent years. Certainly, Argentina is a surprise member on this low-level list. Of the major spenders in the region, Brazil and Venezuela receive the most media attention, which only feeds the idea of a major regional arms race. This is especially the case in Brazil’s plans for constructing a nuclear submarine with French aid (this goal dates back to the time of the military junta and has thus far been unsuccessful; sources say that the nuclear-powered submarine, ideally, will be finished by 2017). Ironically, it is Chile, the country that has received the least attention, which should be regarded as the gravest security threat of all; Santiago has border issues with all three of its neighbours and claims to the Antarctic, the international treat of which expires in 2020.

A final issue that should be mentioned is that military officials usually tend to describe military equipment as “offensive” or “defensive” in nature, generally mislabelling the former to describe the purchases meant to protect against neighbouring states, while mislabelling the latter for their own political and offensive tactics. Indeed, militaries like to define themselves as peaceful in nature, describing new weaponry as necessary to maintain a deterrent against possible aggressions, hence security ministries are usually labelled as “ministries of defence,” since “ministries of war” sounds too aggressive. An analyst at the Federation of American Scientists explains that “labelling weapons as offensive/defensive is very misleading.” He goes on to argue that “some weapons can have predominant defensive roles at the tactical level but, at the strategic level, they could be used to further an invasion or other offensive actions (and vice versa).”

NEXT: PART SIX: DOES ARMS RACE EQUAL HOSTILITIES?



I will now get back to bottling my Malbec

I well remember that The Netherlands used to have a minister of war and the navy which was changed to minister of defense in the late fifty's. I think all NATO countries made the change around the same time.

Thanks, Mirage, this is an interesting thread.

Also, thanks for not going into great detail on the Falklands War. I think you handled it well.

For those interested in any indepth reveiw of the conflict, there are some good books out there that I would recommend.

by Max Hastings and Simon Jenkens

by Russell Phillips

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by Martin Middlebrook

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by Sir Lawrence Freedman

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by Sir Lawrence Freedman

Those are all books that cover the entire conflict. There are many other detailed books on specific portions of the conflict from the war in the air, the war on the sea, to the infrantry battles that were fought on the island. Even individual actions. Lots of good material out there for anyone interested.

Thank you Jeff. I have two installments left where I think I have tied up all the loose ends and finish my mini documentary.


I have read the book by Martin Middlebrook. It is well written, as are the other book you mentioned. I would also recommend:


by Jimmy Burns



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