CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

[ZeEa5KPul]

But I would maintain that the change from "nothing" to CV-16, is still a much bigger change in technology and subsystems (and operational experience), than going from CV-17 to 003... which is what weig was pointing out.

Then I would have to disagree on the technology and subsystems front. With CV-16, China had a more or less complete hull - sandblast the rust off, put the boilers in, hook the radars up and away we go. I'd say CV-16 to CV-17 was bigger since China had to start from the keel up and integrate those subsystems into a "new" design. CV-17 to 003 was the biggest of all since it was a genuinely novel design with an entirely new launching system. 003 to CVN would be a smaller jump since all of the subsystems, with the exception of the powerplant*, will either be the same (up to scaling) or will be descended from 003's systems. I consider 003 to be China's first "true" carrier and the riskiest and most difficult ship on its naval modernization path.

* The nuclear reactors would not be entirely novel since China has extensive experience fielding similar powerplants on submarines and a very highly developed civilian nuclear industry. Experience with things like shielding the crew from radiation would be readily transferable.

 

[Maikeru]

Can they bring-back a full load of internal fuel?

Don't know, but fuel is cheaper (usually) than weapons so they'd dump fuel first if they needed to land shortly after launch.

 

[Blitzo]

Then I would have to disagree on the technology and subsystems front. With CV-16, China had a more or less complete hull - sandblast the rust off, put the boilers in, hook the radars up and away we go. I'd say CV-16 to CV-17 was bigger since China had to start from the keel up. CV-17 to 003 was the biggest of all since it was both a new design with an entirely new launching system. 003 and CVN would be a smaller jump since all of the subsystems, with the exception of the powerplant*, will either be the same (up to scaling) or will be descended from 003's systems. I consider 003 to be China's first "true" carrier and the riskiest and most difficult ship on its naval modernization path.

* The nuclear reactors would not be entirely novel since China has extensive experience fielding similar powerplants on submarines. Experience with things like shielding the crew from the radiation would be readily applicable.

You just said so yourself -- "a more or less complete hull".
Constructing the hull of a ship, even for a ship as big as a carrier, is the easier part of building a ship. Fitting a ship out with the subsystems is the harder part -- and it is even more challenging if the subsystems are ones that you have to source domestically, and for a new ship type that you've never had experience before, like a carrier in the case of the PLAN and CV-16.

(Just look at the amount of time taken for many nations to fit out ships after launch -- the less competent examples like Indian and Russian shipbuilding examples for their frigates, destroyers and carriers is a great reflection of just why fitting out is arguably more challenging than the process of building the hull itself).


Furthermore, the differences between a relatively large STOBAR carrier like CV-16/17 and a large CATOBAR carrier like 003 is primarily the EM catapults.

If we exclude the EM catapults, other subsystems such as arresting gear, optical landing system, flight control/tracking system, capital ship threshold battle management system/CIC, munitions management, are all very important technologies that had to be verified on CV-16 first, which they had no prior application on a ship of that size or type before.
Meanwhile, for 003, all of those carrier specific subsystems will be mature (and likely be evolved iterations of them) -- but the only significant technology introduced on 003 from CV-16/17 is its EM catapults.

To put it into a more condensed way:
New technologies demonstrated/needed between "nothing" and CV-16: arresting gear, optical landing system, flight control/tracking system, capital ship threshold battle management system/CIC, munitions management
New technologies demonstrated/needed between CV-17 and 003: basically just EM catapults

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

You just said so yourself -- "a more or less complete hull".
Constructing the hull of a ship, even for a ship as big as a carrier, is the easier part of building a ship. Fitting a ship out with the subsystems is the harder part -- and it is even more challenging if the subsystems are ones that you have to source domestically, and for a new ship type that you've never had experience before, like a carrier in the case of the PLAN and CV-16.

(Just look at the amount of time taken for many nations to fit out ships after launch -- the less competent examples like Indian and Russian shipbuilding examples for their frigates, destroyers and carriers is a great reflection of just why fitting out is arguably more challenging than the process of building the hull itself).


Furthermore, the differences between a relatively large STOBAR carrier like CV-16/17 and a large CATOBAR carrier like 003 is primarily the EM catapults.

If we exclude the EM catapults, other subsystems such as arresting gear, optical landing system, flight control/tracking system, capital ship threshold battle management system/CIC, munitions management, are all very important technologies that had to be verified on CV-16 first, which they had no prior application on a ship of that size or type before.
Meanwhile, for 003, all of those carrier specific subsystems will be mature (and likely be evolved iterations of them) -- but the only significant technology introduced on 003 from CV-16/17 is its EM catapults.

To put it into a more condensed way:
New technologies demonstrated/needed between "nothing" and CV-16: arresting gear, optical landing system, flight control/tracking system, capital ship threshold battle management system/CIC, munitions management
New technologies demonstrated/needed between CV-17 and 003: basically just EM catapults

Fair enough, I see the merit of your argument and concede the point. How do you judge the difficulty of moving from 003 to CVN (I know there's an element of "depends on the CVN here", so consider CVN to mean a Ford that works) relative to CV-17 to 003? Also, do you see another 003-type ship (conventional propulsion, EM cats) being built and if so, when do you expect to see signs of its construction?

 

[weig2000]

Then I would have to disagree on the technology and subsystems front. With CV-16, China had a more or less complete hull - sandblast the rust off, put the boilers in, hook the radars up and away we go. I'd say CV-16 to CV-17 was bigger since China had to start from the keel up and integrate those subsystems into a "new" design. CV-17 to 003 was the biggest of all since it was a genuinely novel design with an entirely new launching system. 003 to CVN would be a smaller jump since all of the subsystems, with the exception of the powerplant*, will either be the same (up to scaling) or will be descended from 003's systems. I consider 003 to be China's first "true" carrier and the riskiest and most difficult ship on its naval modernization path.

* The nuclear reactors would not be entirely novel since China has extensive experience fielding similar powerplants on submarines and a very highly developed civilian nuclear industry. Experience with things like shielding the crew from radiation would be readily transferable.

Another way to look at it, Varyag was brought back to China in early 2002; Liaoning was commissioned in late 2012. It took China over a decade to learn and complete the construction.

No, the first step from nothing to Liaoning commission is far more challenging to China than from 002 to 003. Not even close.

 

[Blitzo]

Fair enough, I see the merit of your argument and concede the point. How do you judge the difficulty of moving from 003 to CVN (I know there's an element of "depends on the CVN here", so consider CVN to mean a Ford that works) relative to CV-17 to 003? Also, do you see another 003-type ship (conventional propulsion, EM cats) being built and if so, when do you expect to see signs of its construction?

I think the powerplant of a CVN is such a hurdle itself that I consider that singular aspect of moving from 003 to a proper CVN to be a significant difficulty, probably more difficult than the development of EM cats needed for transition from CV-17 to 003.

I don't expect initial work on a PLAN CVN to begin until after the mid 2020s (let's say 2027/8) -- so the question is what they're going to do between now and then. I personally expect them to go for additional 003 pattern carriers, but I don't think we've had anything concrete and decisive from the grapevine saying "yes, expect modules for additional 003 carriers to appear in XYZ timespan"... The most number of additional 003 pattern carriers I can see them putting in the water between now and 2030 is three 003s. The smallest number of additional 003 pattern carriers I can see them putting out in the water is zero.

My personal prediction range is that the PLAN may have anywhere between 3 carriers in service/in the water by 2030 (CV-16, CV-17, 003 no. 1 that we see now), or up to 6 carriers in service/in the water by 2030 (CV-16, CV-17, up to four 003 pattern carriers including no. 1 that we see now). I don't expect the first CVN to be launched until after 2030.

subject to change ofc with new info.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Another way to look at it, Varyag was brought back to China in early 2002; Liaoning was commissioned in late 2012. It took China over a decade to learn and complete the construction.

No, the first step from nothing to Liaoning commission is far more challenging to China than from 002 to 003. Not even close.

Exactly retrofit is way more difficult then building brand new ship. You have to understand how each of the component work then You have to coordinate to work together as a system meanwhile you don't have complete drawing, manual, original fabricator. Any missing component you have to built it yourself. It is like giant puzzle with missing pieces. No wonder it take them that long

 

[para80]

Well, in a way the construction of Shandong also started already with the effort to modernise and rebuild Liaoning. So the timelines are less follow-ons with different difficulty but rather highly complementary workflows. For the same reason Type 003 took a lot less time still. One of the primary advantages China has enjoyed through its work on Liaoning vs say India, which left the Vikramaditya-effort completely to the Russians, so they had to learn a lot of their lessons directly on building Vikrant, resulting in not just one but two dramatically delayed procurements.

 

[iantsai]

I think the powerplant of a CVN is such a hurdle itself that I consider that singular aspect of moving from 003 to a proper CVN to be a significant difficulty, probably more difficult than the development of EM cats needed for transition from CV-17 to 003.

I don't expect initial work on a PLAN CVN to begin until after the mid 2020s (let's say 2027/8) -- so the question is what they're going to do between now and then. I personally expect them to go for additional 003 pattern carriers, but I don't think we've had anything concrete and decisive from the grapevine saying "yes, expect modules for additional 003 carriers to appear in XYZ timespan"... The most number of additional 003 pattern carriers I can see them putting in the water between now and 2030 is three 003s. The smallest number of additional 003 pattern carriers I can see them putting out in the water is zero.

My personal prediction range is that the PLAN may have anywhere between 3 carriers in service/in the water by 2030 (CV-16, CV-17, 003 no. 1 that we see now), or up to 6 carriers in service/in the water by 2030 (CV-16, CV-17, up to four 003 pattern carriers including no. 1 that we see now). I don't expect the first CVN to be launched until after 2030.

subject to change ofc with new info.

It's officially reported that a prototype naval nuclear reactor was installed for testing at the Changjiang Nuclear Thermal Power Station in Hainan island.

I think it would take several years before the reactor becomes operating capable but it won't take too long because China had been operating naval nuclear reactor since the 1970s.

 

[Blitzo]

It's officially reported that a prototype naval nuclear reactor was installed for testing at the Changjiang Nuclear Thermal Power Station in Hainan island.

I think it would take several years before the reactor becomes operating capable but it won't take too long because China had been operating naval nuclear reactor since the 1970s.

Are you talking about this?

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That shouldn't be for naval reactors, it is more for dual use, and isolated locations support.

The reactor for the CVN should be making progress afaik but it won't be publicized like this.