CV-XX (003 carrier) Thread I ... News & Discussions


Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
Not a good start to 2020

delays due to virus and no 4th carrier has been spotted which to be honest I was hoping for

no batch 3 of J15 and no further new helicopters

constrained air wing for both CV-16 and CV-17

add to that the the news that there will be no 5th and 6th CVN

after a short sprint looks like Chinese carrier ambitions have been somewhat dented

carrier programmes are expensive and even china can’t splash out on a CVN

USN has 11 x CVN

China at most with have 2 x STOBAR and 2 x CATOBAR which will not bee nuclear powered

overall a rather dull picture and steam seems to have gassed out on the Chinese carrier programme in this new decade
He seems to have a fixation on matching the US ship for ship, plane for plane, and feature for feature as the criteria for a successful program.

May be, just may be, the PLA military planners and decision makers believe that meeting the strategic objective and tactical need should be paramount.
 

vesicles

Colonel
Not a good start to 2020

delays due to virus and no 4th carrier has been spotted which to be honest I was hoping for

no batch 3 of J15 and no further new helicopters

constrained air wing for both CV-16 and CV-17

add to that the the news that there will be no 5th and 6th CVN

after a short sprint looks like Chinese carrier ambitions have been somewhat dented

carrier programmes are expensive and even china can’t splash out on a CVN

USN has 11 x CVN

China at most with have 2 x STOBAR and 2 x CATOBAR which will not bee nuclear powered

overall a rather dull picture and steam seems to have gassed out on the Chinese carrier programme in this new decade
I still can’t understand why all of a sudden you have become so impatient all the time. You have been complaining about their supposedly slow progress on everything.

You got to let them take one step at a time. You are an experienced Chinese weapons watcher and should know how they operate. They are slow and methodical. You should realize that they have no one, but themselves, to help them. And they must figure everything out on their own. That’s why they need to test and retest everything. Even when they are absolutely sure, they need to test it again. Every mistake means loss of money, time and even human lives. They must take things slow and steady.

They have made huge progress on all fronts of their weapons programs. They just spent billions and decades on their first 3 carriers. That means not only money, but also countless scientists and engineers working days and nights and sacrificing their vacation and holidays with their families.

It’s unfair to demand unrealistic goals that no human living on this planet can possible achieve in the time frame that you give them.

I believe you are in the biomedical field too and have published in PNAS? I’m sure you are very proud of your high impact publication. What If I say to you “l’m disappointed at you because you are not publishing 20 Science papers a year. As such, you have failed miserably as a scientist!” Sounds unreasonable? This is what you are demanding of the Chinese...
 

Biscuits

Junior Member
Registered Member
The "source" about only 4 carriers being planned is from a western mouthpieces with no source at all behind that statement. Its just placating to their home audience.

It does not merit discussion on a serious board.

China doesn't even have public standing plans on a 3rd or 4th carrier. All of that are just guesses from observers. Same for additional carriers. The only thing we can do is to wait and see, the final number is only known to the navy itself.

All we can say is that with the economy booming, the military will also be something that matches it. But the exact size depends on whether spending will be larger or smaller which is a political decision
 

AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
The "source" about only 4 carriers being planned is from a western mouthpieces with no source at all behind that statement. Its just placating to their home audience.

It does not merit discussion on a serious board.

China doesn't even have public standing plans on a 3rd or 4th carrier. All of that are just guesses from observers. Same for additional carriers. The only thing we can do is to wait and see, the final number is only known to the navy itself.

All we can say is that with the economy booming, the military will also be something that matches it. But the exact size depends on whether spending will be larger or smaller which is a political decision
I wouldn't call SCMP a western mouthpiece per se. It is owned by Alibaba after all.

As for the number of carriers, consider this.

China has 4x the population of the USA.
And most would agree that at some point in the future, China would have an economy twice as large. The Australian government has the Chinese economy growing from 30% larger to twice the size in terms of actual physical output of goods and services in 2030-2035.

And let's say the US continues to spend 3.2% of GDP on the military and split this equally between the Army, Navy and Air Force.

China is already secure on land, so let's say Chinese Army spending increases to match the US.

In the air, the Chinese Air Force has about 2000 combat coded aircraft like the US Air Force. If Chinese Air Force spending increases to match the US, then that would eventually result in a modern stealthy aircraft fleet, which should be more than sufficient to dominate the 1st Island Chain.

Then the main challenge becomes the US Navy, and the goal would be to deter them from even getting involved. If China were to aim for a Navy some 50% larger than the 11 US carriers, that would imply the equivalent of 16 Chinese nuclear supercarriers.

Yet in terms of overall military spending (Army, Navy, Air Force), China only needs to spend 17% more than the US.

If the US is spending 3.2% of GDP on the military, the Chinese figure is only 1.8% of GDP. That is even less than the 2% consistently seen over the past 20+ years.

The implication is that what we've seen so far, is still the early stages of China's military buildup. And that this buildup is easily affordable.
 
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