Chinese Economics Thread

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CMP

Captain
Registered Member
HighGround said:
From a game theory perspective, you'd start out with the most military sensitive items first. If Japan retaliates, you slowly broaden the embargo to exert pressure.

But I'm also not particularly clued in about what this is in response to. If this is strictly about Japan's recent comments over exploring nuclear weapons, then there's a couple ways this can go.

1. You start out slow and widen the scope of the embargo with time (or in response to Japan's retaliation) until Japan gets the hint.
2. You start out with a bazooka and go for major economic damage to force Japan to either rescind their comments, or to come to the bargaining table.

On the other hand, if this is more about Japan's political direction in general... I don't really see how this ends quickly. Japan is firmly married to America's security umbrella and I don't see them getting rid of Takaichi quickly. Though if there is someone who knows a lot about Japan's politics, feel free to correct me.

Which means that this might be a long and prolonger trade war that's going to be damaging to both countries. The impact to Japan's downstream industries will be significant. Chinese suppliers tho, will also feel the pain. China is also a major importer of Japan's goods. Other than the obvious high-value SEM inputs China buys from Japan, there's plenty of machinery, electronics, medical equipment, etc. Domestic industries can probably fill in gaps, but there's still pain from switching suppliers, possible quality/yield drops. There's probably a few critical irreplaceable inputs as well. $300 Billion USD in trade volume between two neighbors is at stake.

What do you all think? Is this going to quickly escalate...? Or is Japan going to back down?
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I think every stage of escalation will have clear forewarning and plenty of opportunities for Japanese surrender. I suspect Japan will not surrender and China should take this as their chance to choke Japanese industries into total failure.
 
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Captain
Registered Member
wuguanhui said:
Doesn't this embargo potentially help the US harvest Japan?
I'm wondering how much of this was with the connivance with the Americans. Did the US prod Sanae to give China an excuse to de-industrialize Japan? Will Trump turn around to demand a handsome fee to intercede with China?

Is JP getting DP'd in a 3P with XJP and DJT?
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I think this is highly likely. Given recent events, I suspect Japan is being played by both sides into getting deindustrialized just like the US deindustrialized Europe.
 
2handedswordsman

2handedswordsman

Junior Member
Registered Member
These are the consequences of the brutal free market antagonism. Once, Toshiba, Matsushita, Sony etc made the market toxic for Chinese electronics companies to involve. Now it's different. Monopolies are good only if you are from the side of the profiteers of this kind of market manipulation
 
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