China's Space Program Thread II

[ENTED64]

I think 120 is definitely plausible as Qianfan is flatpack so you can get more satellites per launch than Guowang. That said to get to 120 in 2 months they would have to use the majority of launches so there definitely just needs to be more launches overall. I am somewhat pessimistic about the aggressive scale up for future years because we have seen the announced timeline delayed previously.

It just seems like the high volume reusable launch program has been behind schedule repeatedly and/or failed like the recovery attempts earlier this year. Even if they succeed at recovery with the next batch of launches in the upcoming few months it will still take many more months to qualify them for relaunches and even longer to establish a fast relaunch cadence. In order for Qianfan and Guowang to reach their 2028 targets (4000 new satellites for Qianfan, 3600 new satellites for Guowang) they'd need like 5 times as many launches as they're doing now because Guowang averages only about 9 satellites per launch. I'm skeptical they're going to succeeded at this kind of incredibly fast scale up given the rate of progress thus far.

 

[Tomboy]

Do we have any solid technical capabilities on QF satellites? I know GW seems to be pretty advanced as things go, AFAIK basically Starlink V2 level of performance. Not really sure how well QF satellites are doing on the technical side compared to GW.

Anyhow if they can reach ~1000 satellites by next year it could mean global coverage could be complete which is pretty cool to see, we should expect commercial operations soon.

 

[NoetherSpudCharge]

There's likely a bit of general info on the Qianfan satellites from their international and domestic filings for those who are interested. Off the top of my head (limited recollection), they use Ku, Q, and V bands and should be broadly in the same weight class as Starlink V1 (around 200 to 240 kilograms each). The satellites launched so far were delpoyed in ~800 km polar orbits and are subsequently raised to about 1,145 km. However, a number of the 108 satellites deployed in 2024 and 2025 had issues raising their orbits which likely prompted a launch pause by Space Sail; the problems may have been deemed resolved and launches started up again in April with 92 satellites launched so far in 2026. The CZ-12B's and ZQ-3's successful debuts (without recoveries) likely mean the number of Qianfan deployed per launch will increase significantly, so once the launch cadence of these new vehicles ramp up even a little, we'll see a significant increase in the annual deployment numbers. Their original plan was to deploy 300-400 satellites per year across 2025 to 2027 and significantly increase to 4000+ thereafter; this obviously was delayed by tech issues for 2025, but their phase one plan (to end of 2027) still appears doable given the new launchers coming on-line now. But the feasibility of Space Sail's (and Guowang's) launch plans post 2028 clearly depend on high-cadence medium to heavy-lift reusable launchers from a variety of providers coming on-line (in addition to new launch sites and supporting supply chain) which means that the CZ-10B and ZQ-3 1st stage recovery tests over the next four to eight weeks will have a lot riding on them. Note that the ZQ-2E "Block 2" may also be used to Qianfan launches, possibly as early as later today/tomorrow.