China's SCS Strategy Thread


ansy1968

Major
Registered Member
Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia & Philippines will close ranks vs. the PRC in the SC Sea & accept any help offered by Japan, UK, India & US, w/o necessarily joining a military bloc. The QUAD is acting on their behalf too, as it fits the interests of them all.
As for the argument that they didn't exist as states when the 11 dash line was 1st drawn, & therefore can't claim the areas within it, China should thank the European & US colonists. They r independent nations now & r the inheritors of states/kingdoms that existed there before their colonization, just like the PRC is the inheritor of the the Republic of China that existed before Japan seized all of Chinese coast & SE Asia.
@Tsavo Lion Bro I take offense for what you posted, The American massacred a lot of native Filipino and we should be thankful WTF! Please google BALANGIGA BELLS and see what the Americans under Gen Jacob H. Smith did His orders included, "killing everyone over the age of ten" and make the island "a howling wilderness." Keep your opinion to yourself and please don't insult our intelligence.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
This is a link to the continuation of the video yesterday. Don't worry, I will not be posting every day of cross linking as a habit. This subject is an exception
 

lcloo

Senior Member
Did they collided with man-made object? Could it be made in China?

The accident happened as
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over the Chinese military's incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).

The Connecticut was operating in the waters around the South China Sea as the US and its allies have been carrying out a major multinational show of force in the region led by the United Kingdom's Carrier Strike Group 21. The ongoing operations saw exercises with ships from the US, UK, Japan, Australia, Canada, and the Netherlands, including three aircraft carriers, training in and around the South China Sea.

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SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Just been reading the speech by US Defence Secretary Jake Sullivan
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Let me just quote some key passages

"We are going to stand up and speak out, both privately and publicly when we see the kinds of activities that are fundamentally destabilising,"

Asked whether the US was prepared to take military action to defend Taiwan, Mr Sullivan said: "Let me just say this, we are going to take action now to try to prevent that day from ever coming to pass."

"Trying to say that coming out of Afghanistan somehow tells any country anything about the depth and level of commitment the US has elsewhere is a grave mistake."

China was "going to steadfastly defend its perspective on the world".

"It's incumbent upon us as the United States, working with allies and partners to make clear where we stand, to stand up for our friends, to stand up for our interests... And that's what we intend to do."

In short a lot of waffle and nowhere is there a solid commitment to defend Taiwan. Anything short of saying "The PRC should be under no illusions of our resolute intent in actively defending Taiwan against Chinese aggression..." is frankly meaningless and the ambiguity of the actual words spoken is simply to ensure a very easy exit from the situation.

These words will have given very little comfort in Taipei last night!
 

lcloo

Senior Member
Did they collided with man-made object? Could it be made in China?

The accident happened as
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
over the Chinese military's incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).

The Connecticut was operating in the waters around the South China Sea as the US and its allies have been carrying out a major multinational show of force in the region led by the United Kingdom's Carrier Strike Group 21. The ongoing operations saw exercises with ships from the US, UK, Japan, Australia, Canada, and the Netherlands, including three aircraft carriers, training in and around the South China Sea.

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It was reported that the collision happened on Saturday, and on Thursday the media report came out. Which means USS Connecticut took 4 to 5 days to sail back to Guam. If the Seawolf class sub moved at between 20 to 25 KM per hour with its damage bow, it would sailed around 3,000KM plus or minus several hundred KM.

Assuming the incident/accident is around Taiwan where US, Australia, UK, Dutch, and Canadian ships were having exercise, we may assume the large number of Chinese planes, including J16, SU-30KMM, Y9Q anti-submatinr patrol planes and AEW&S were attracted by the sound signal of US submarine's damage bow.

This is an assumption because we will never know what happen since the werewolf class submarine is a top classified.

0 i9.jpg
 
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SampanViking

The Capitalist
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Actually looking at it afresh, its not difficult after all to track the path from here to the US declaring an Embargo

Step 1) Realisation that US will not defend any declaration of Independence or try any meaningful measures to stop a PRC military re-occupation on the Island, leads to the fall of the DPP Government

Step 2) Newly elected KMT government start making serious moves towards re-unification

Step 3) US disputes the election results and accuses China of interfering in Taiwan's democratic process

Step 4) US declares part or full embargo against China (to include Taiwan under KMT)
(actual scale of embargo may depend on how far the reunification process goes, as the US will want to keep plenty in hand for escalation purposes).
 

ansy1968

Major
Registered Member
Actually looking at it afresh, its not difficult after all to track the path from here to the US declaring an Embargo

Step 1) Realisation that US will not defend any declaration of Independence or try any meaningful measures to stop a PRC military re-occupation on the Island, leads to the fall of the DPP Government

Step 2) Newly elected KMT government start making serious moves towards re-unification

Step 3) US disputes the election results and accuses China of interfering in Taiwan's democratic process

Step 4) US declares part or full embargo against China (to include Taiwan under KMT)
(actual scale of embargo may depend on how far the reunification process goes, as the US will want to keep plenty in hand for escalation purposes).
@SampanViking Sir If I may, your premise is possible if the US had a stronger hand cause right now 1) there is a Chip shortage 2) the FAB 21 in Arizona will be finished in 2025 (optimistic timeline) or 2026 delayed so the need for TW is still there. 3) Inflation pressure in the US 4) economically wobble or is built on a house of cards. 5) military over stretch and with that 6) facing a Chinese military preponderance in the Asian region 7) and lastly as @FairAndUnbiased had posted before its alliance system, why would they sacrifice its economy for America, China is their number 1 trading partner with trade surplus flavoring them, would the US remunerate their sacrifice? Sir what the US vassal are afraid of is the American first policy. If the US did as what you predicted there will be an ASIAN Spring sprouting out in every capital from Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei and even here in the Philippine the US most staunch ally.

Sir my thinking the US is trap, the more they wait the more powerful China get. The year 2025 is a crucial year as a new Republican President or Trump occupy the White house, by that time the increase in nuclear arsenal and its economic vulnerability will be addressed. The economic embargo maybe more damaging to the US as the Chinese decouple with Xi had changed course and is preparing for such eventual.
 
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Bellum_Romanum

Senior Member
Registered Member
@SampanViking Sir If I may, your premise is possible if the US had a stronger hand cause right now 1) there is a Chip shortage 2) the FAB 21 in Arizona will be finished in 2025 (optimistic timeline) or 2026 delayed so the need for TW is still there. 3) Inflation pressure in the US 4) economically wobble or is built on a house of cards. 5) military over stretch and with that 6) facing a Chinese military preponderance in the Asian region 7) and lastly as @FairAndUnbiased had posted before its alliance system, why would they sacrifice its economy for America, China is their number 1 trading partner with trade surplus flavoring them, would the US remunerate their sacrifice? Sir what the US vassal are afraid of is the American first policy. If the US did as what you predicted there will be an ASIAN Spring sprouting out in every capital from Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei and even here in the Philippine the US most staunch ally.

Sir my thinking the US is trap, the more they wait the more powerful China get. The year 2025 is a crucial year as a new Republican President or Trump occupy the White house, by that time the increase in nuclear arsenal and its economic vulnerability will be addressed. The economic embargo maybe more damaging to the US as the Chinese decouple with Xi had changed course and is preparing for such eventual.
@ansy1968 What's your take on the most recent Nobel Peace price recipient, Rappler founder and "journalist" Maria Ressa. Doesn't this award will be used by the forces against Duterte as further ammunition against the outgoing President and his legacy not to mention the award itself will lend further credence to the pressures placed by ICC which would or could be used by aspiring Presidential candidates that are all vying to replace Duterte. Also, I wonder how Marcos is going to answer the inevitable question if he's asked what he thinks of the award towards Maria Ressa because his response will give -- political observers and the political camps that support and oppose him --- political clues with respect to his insights, not to mention how he can adroitly maneuver a response that's not too hot and not too cold: the goldilock response.
 

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