China's SCS Strategy Thread

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tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
What exactly is the MDT going to do if there is a death from PLA water canon attack. Ph invokes MDT then what, US will come and magically start shooting the PLA ships? Will it send its own coast guard to do ramming contest with the Chinese coast guard? Philippines try to use MDT like its sort of ultimate weapon that can solve all their problems just by invoking it.

US has no power in the SCS anymore. Recent Iranian and Ukranian usage of drones and missiles should have made that clear. anti-ship missiles and drones launched from land can completely obliterate any Navy that dares to come close. No matter how accurate their air defense is, they will eventually run out. China has enough missiles and drones to destroy all of US navy several times. On top of that they have their modern air force with 2300+ combat capable planes, most of them more modern than US planes. In the SCS, land based planes are another destroyed of navies.

Marcos is essentially bluffing to save himself in the eyes of the public. Cause if the Philippine public actually knew and understood the power disparity growing in the SCS, they would probably lose their minds.
 
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chlosy

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
What exactly is the MDT going to do if there is a death from PLA water canon attack. Ph invokes MDT then what, US will come and magically start shooting the PLA ships? Will it send its own coast guard to do ramming contest with the Chinese coast guard? Philippines try to use MDT like its sort of ultimate weapon that can solve all their problems just by invoking it.

US has no power in the SCS anymore. Recent Iranian and Ukranian usage of drones and missiles should have made that clear. anti-ship missiles and drones launched from land can completely obliterate any Navy that dares to come close. No matter how accurate their air defense is, they will eventually run out. China has enough missiles and drones to destroy all of US navy several times. On top of that they have their modern air force with 2300+ combat capable planes, most of them more modern than US planes. In the SCS, land based planes are another destroyed of navies.

Marcos is essentially bluffing to save himself in the eyes of the public. Cause if the Philippine public actually knew and understood the power disparity growing in the SCS, they would probably lose their minds.
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Once the MDT is "invoked", the US Congress will need to discuss the subsequent response of the US.... which can take awhile.
 
Sardaukar20

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
Wrought said:
Couple of updates from Marcos after he returned from Washington. US base access will not be expanded further, and treaty obligations will only be invoked if deaths occur. Needless to say, no deaths have occurred thus far and CCG has plenty of ways to apply pressure without killing people.

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My interpretation is that the Americans told him they have no appetite to add another mess on top of Ukraine and Israel, with support limited to PR exercises like statements and summits. So existing CCG activity (blocking, water cannons) is tacitly accepted, despite all the Filipino complaints. Current pressure should be continued and dialed up slowly, if necessary. Incremental progress is the way to go.
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Water cannons can cause death if it impacts people the wrong way, or send hazardous projectiles like glass shards flying, or throw people overboard. Besides, what if some odd PH loose cannon started shooting at the CCG and then getting shot back and killed? Are they really gonna invoke the MDT? I just don't think so.

So for the PH to use "death" as a triggering point for MDT is controversial and very unwise. Most likely, this is a bluff by BBM. But this bluff could easily escalate matters, if the idiots in PH start asking for blood and BBM becomes politically cornered. If its not a bluff, and the PH do intend to invoke MDT, then the US won't go to war with China over a couple of dead Filipinos killed in a skirmish. The most the US might do are sanctions, more arms sales. and more naval patrols. But with everything going on today, the US cannot sanction China anymore without hurting itself. So good luck if the Americans do try that. Still, the ultimate point is that Americans will never shed blood for the interests of the PH, period.
 
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