china/taiwan news


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Temstar

Major
Registered Member
That one went extra deep it seems.

This is the same type of strategy as Diaoyutai and with India - drag the enemy into exhaustion. ROCAF have been making statements that their resources are stretched thin having to constantly scramble fighters to respond. Currently ROCAF have like 1.3 pilot per plane and only something like 500 planes. If PLAAF can stretch JASDF to exhaustion than it won't take long to achieve the same with ROCAF. Once that happens ROCAF would be forced to retreat back into only respond if aircraft enters Taiwan "airspace" and thus another slice of the salami.
 

crash8pilot

Junior Member
Registered Member
That one went extra deep it seems.

This is the same type of strategy as Diaoyutai and with India - drag the enemy into exhaustion. ROCAF have been making statements that their resources are stretched thin having to constantly scramble fighters to respond. Currently ROCAF have like 1.3 pilot per plane and only something like 500 planes. If PLAAF can stretch JASDF to exhaustion than it won't take long to achieve the same with ROCAF. Once that happens ROCAF would be forced to retreat back into only respond if aircraft enters Taiwan "airspace" and thus another slice of the salami.
Might just be able to take back Taiwan without having to fire a shot :)
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Wow. That's the first time in my entire life I actually heard a Chinese say this. I doubt very much you're Chinese. Either that or you missed history lessons at school.

In addition, your declaration of neutrality it's just mind numbing naive.

If Taiwan cedes military bases on the East coast, what would be the long term result?

With a military foothold already on Taiwan, it would be obvious that Taiwan would have to adopt a neutral or pro China posture. That is good enough.

And in the long run, with a wealthy developed China, it wouldn't make any sense for Taiwan to remain independent, from a cultural, economic, military, political perspective.
 

OppositeDay

Junior Member
Registered Member
Wow. That's the first time in my entire life I actually heard a Chinese say this. I doubt very much you're Chinese. Either that or you missed history lessons at school.

In addition, your declaration of neutrality it's just mind numbing naive.

A peaceful resolution will certainly requires a declaration of neutrality to be written into the Taiwanese constitution. Unlike Japan, which is a semi-feudal semi-colonial fake democracy with fake rule of law, Taiwan is actually a real democracy. Without the threat of forced reunification,the public Taiwan won't have the motivation to break the neutrality clauses and risking economic sanctions or even a war just to hold joint exercises or share intelligence with the Americans.
 

Temstar

Major
Registered Member

Ignore the video's clickbait title. The actual report came from CCTV1 - a counter-intelligence operation specifically against Taiwan has been completed. A wave of Taiwan agents have been apprehended.

The words used is very strong, Tsai Ing-Wen's name is mentioned and she and her government are accused of coordinating with foreign forces.
 

Skywatcher

Captain
That one went extra deep it seems.

This is the same type of strategy as Diaoyutai and with India - drag the enemy into exhaustion. ROCAF have been making statements that their resources are stretched thin having to constantly scramble fighters to respond. Currently ROCAF have like 1.3 pilot per plane and only something like 500 planes. If PLAAF can stretch JASDF to exhaustion than it won't take long to achieve the same with ROCAF. Once that happens ROCAF would be forced to retreat back into only respond if aircraft enters Taiwan "airspace" and thus another slice of the salami.
The ROCAF spent nearly $900 million (USD) on responding to the PLAAF and PLANAF last year. If the Mainland doubles or triples its sorties (easily done, Beijing could even try more drones), the ROCAF is in real trouble.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
There, I fixed it for you.

Some people on this forum seem to have passed through the same "education" as these
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
:
How ironic, what an example of throwing bricks from a glass house. Actually, it is you who is clearly "educated" on only a premium blend of Western propaganda. You haven't even realized that the majority of pro-Chinese posters here are in the West and likely educated (primarily) in the West, which fully displays our ability to think outside of the propaganda that surrounds us, unlike poor kids such as yourself.

What kind of trolling is this? I open your link and found a >1 hour long video starting with an old guy doing Taiji.
 

Max Demian

Junior Member
Registered Member
You haven't even realized that the majority of pro-Chinese posters here are in the West and likely educated (primarily) in the West, which fully displays our ability to think outside of the propaganda that surrounds us, unlike poor kids such as yourself.
I admit, I initially thought most of the pro-Chinese posters live in China. Then again, I mostly peruse technical boards and don't get to learn where a person is from or what school they went to. But we can always start from somewhere. So you had primary, secondary and tertiary education in a Western country?

I've personally met and discussed this topic with about a dozen Chinese people who live in the West and they all have a very similar if not identical position on Taiwan. All of them got a PhD and some masters too in western countries, but the rest of their education was in China. I also see exact same responses from hundreds of Chinese on Quora. Having grown up in an environment where a hundred people have a hundred opinions on any single matter, leads me to conclude that indoctrination must be at play here. A PhD or a bachelors/masters in another culture pales in effect on the educational and cultural imprinting in the formative years of a person's life in his home country.

What kind of trolling is this? I open your link and found a >1 hour long video starting with an old guy doing Taiji.
I don't know. It opens fine on my browser when I use the link. Fast forward to 1h10m20s.
 

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think instead of politics, our discussion should focus on war scenarios. What is the likely war scenario and who would win and what cost?

I have had frequent battles in reddit r/taiwan recently about the possible war and who can win.

Lets's suppose Taiwan declares independence or US decides to recognize Taiwan as independent and China decides to fight. What could be the likely scenario?

Here are a few scenarios that I can think of:

1. China wants to force Taiwan to surrender but it doesn't want to do a full invasion. So, in order to reduce casualties it decides to nuke one of Taiwan's cities. I know one might bring the morality argument. But if Taiwan really goes for a "porcupine" strategy. Then why should China spend all this blood to take Taiwan when it can just nuke one of its cities and force them to surrender? It seems to be the least costly strategy both for China and for Taiwan.

A quick surrender of Taiwan is the best outcome for Taiwanese living in that island. So, I do think China might pursue this strategy if two conditions are fulfilled: the first condition is that Taiwan has alianted the mainland public so much that they no longer care about what happens to Taiwanese. They think Taiwanese are traitors that must destroyed and taught a lesson. The second condition is that China sees Taiwan takeover to be too costly in terms of manpower and damage to mainland cities.

2. China does not invade or nuke Taiwan but decides to Bomb Taiwan into submission using conventional bombs. It quickly achieves air superiority and then proceeds to create a no fly zone similar to what US did in Iraq. Then it spends the next 3-4 years to constantly monitor and bomb Taiwan from the air to soften it up. It then finally moves towards invasion with air borne troops and naval invasion.

How likely is such a scenario where China decides to bomb and blockade Taiwan to soften it up?

Both scenarios assume that US will not fight China. But lets assume US will fight China. How much resources will US spend to fight China in a Taiwan scenario and can China win in 2020-21 level of strength?

How likely is Japan's support in such a war. If Japan allows US to use its air bases to attack China for example then China will obviously not only Bomb those air bases in Japan. But could decide to punish Japan further to force them not to allow any kind of US action from Japanese soil against China. Based on my understanding of Japan. it will not want involve in this war and US will be on its own and must rely on its naval forces to fight China. Philippines, Korea and Vietnam will also stay out.

Let's look at how much strength China currently has that is relevant against a US naval force:

1200+ 4th gen Planes, 200+ Jh-7 for naval and ground strikes, 600 J-7 and J-8 which can be used for point interception roles.

50 destroyers of which 8 is type-055, 49 frigates of which 30 is type 054, 71 corvettes, 83 missiles boats, 2 carriers with 24 jets each.

12 SSN, 50 SSK submarines.

I know some of these forces are not yet fully operational but let's assume that they are for simplicity.

Ground based carrier killer missiles and anti-ship cruise missiles in vast numbers that we don't know how many there are.


US capabilities are:

1600 4th gen+ planes in the air force including 180 F-22 and around 200 F-35. But must bring these forces in an air base in Japan so likely not useful at all

600 4th gen planes on the navy used for carriers. Mostly F/A 18 hornets and super hornets. F-35 maybe in small numbers.

11 carriers, 10 LHD, 67 Bruke class destroyer, 22 cruisers, 55 SSN submarines.

Of course the quality of some US platforms could be higher than China. But I am assuming people will know the capabilities of such platforms.

I am not counting ground forces for US because I don't think they are a factor in the US-China battle for Taiwan. I think its mainly a Air-naval battle for Air superiority. Navy is mainly a platform to fight air attack- air defense battle. Submarines are a support force for sinking ships.

I can envision two scenarios about how much forces and how much cost US is willing to take:

Scenario 1: Arrogant US. This is the scenario where US is arrogant that Chinese forces are weak. And there is not much willingness in US public to fight a costly battle for Taiwan. US will fight China but does not want to give up on its global empire.

Suppose they send 3 carrier battle groups and associated ships to fight China. They assume China will intimidated by just the thought of fighting US. But if not then 3 battle groups will be sufficient to achieve air superiority over Taiwan strait and thus defeating China.


Scenario 2: China threat crazy US. In this scenario, US is totally paranoid about China. It cares about nothing but China. Anything that can cause a gain for China will resisted by US with force. It has abandoned its empire in Europe and Middle east. And decides to use its entire navy on China.

It will send its entire fleet of carriers. Due to maintenance, it can bring about 8 according to navy scheduling. So, 8 carrier battle groups and associated destroyers and cruisers and SSN.


Can China win? How many carriers can China sink with its Carrier killer and anti-Ship missiles? Can China simultaneously battle to invade Taiwan as well?


Here is what I think: I think US underestimates China heavily and especially discounts China's organizational capabilities and tactical accumen. My analysis is that China is invincible in the first island Chain based on the capabilties it has right now. China can use its entire air force and ground based missiles in this fight. China's 600 Flankers give them very long range capability. US carriers can be attacked by China from about 1000 KM easily with H-6K bombers with missiles and 600 Flankers and 200 Jh-7 can also carry anti-ship missiles. China's destroyers will also fire their own anti-ship missiles in a massive barrage.

Thus China will be able to track those carriers using its satellite, drones, recon planes and subs. Once they get nearby, they will be destroyed with saturated anti-Ship missiles.


What are your thoughts about these scenarios.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I admit, I initially thought most of the pro-Chinese posters live in China. Then again, I mostly peruse technical boards and don't get to learn where a person is from or what school they went to. But we can always start from somewhere. So you had primary, secondary and tertiary education in a Western country?
It truly takes someone with a lack of critical thinking to read the responses here and think that most of these people are in China. Read the English; does it look like the unedited draft of what a person who took ESL would write? Other posters even talk about being in the US, Australia, Canada, etc... Correct, for once, my education was in the US, from elementary school.

I've personally met and discussed this topic with about a dozen Chinese people who live in the West and they all have a very similar if not identical position on Taiwan. All of them got a PhD and some masters too in western countries, but the rest of their education was in China. I also see exact same responses from hundreds of Chinese on Quora. Having grown up in an environment where a hundred people have a hundred opinions on any single matter, leads me to conclude that indoctrination must be at play here. A PhD or a bachelors/masters in another culture pales in effect on the educational and cultural imprinting in the formative years of a person's life in his home country.
And you have not run it through your mind that perhaps it is because these people all have the natural human desire to see their own country succeed? If most of the people you meet all want wealth and respect, would you conclude that they were all indoctrinated and brainwashed as poor kids, or would you assume that that is because it is natural to want those things? Same with nationalism/patriotism. A person who is from Country A is naturally likely to support Country A because that is where is self-identity lies; it's not that complicated a concept.

I don't know. It opens fine on my browser when I use the link. Fast forward to 1h10m20s.
My browser works fine; it's the content that is garbage and leads you to be incapable of independent thought when it comes to China. As I said, ironic that you watch things like this and don't realize that you're the one being indoctrinated.
 
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