China Flanker Thread III (land based, exclude J-15)

[tphuang]

I agree that J-16 is likely to replace old JH-7/A brigades, su-30, su-27 and some J-11 brigades.

It would be interesting to see when J-16 production would stop. They seemed to be doing 2 batches a year recently. So, batch 9/10 last year and 11/12 this year. So about 50 a year the last couple of years and close to 300 by the end of this year. How many J-16s do they really need. Based on the recent rumblings about J-35, I think it is likely to start LRIP soon enough and then join service by 2025 (if we use J-20 timeframe of 2014 for 2011 and then early 2018 induction). Given the really fast production of J-20, SAC will need to quickly ramp up production of 5th gen IMO.

I saw Lyman2003 is claiming 432 J-16/16D eventually. About 400 J-16s seems to be a reasonable number. I'm guessing they need at least 50 to 60 J-16Ds. I think this means 1 more year of 2 batches and maybe 2 more years of 1 batch a year. So production for the regular J-16 will probably finish by 2025 I think. J-15B and J-16D may continue a little more. I anticipate them to ramp up production for J-35 in 2024 to 2026 timeframe.

 

[Deino]

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Suixi received J-16. Will replace the Su-30MKK still operating in the base. Looks like they will not be getting J-20 in the foreseeable future. That said, based on PLAAF experience J-10 pilots transition easier to the J-20 than flanker pilots.

But even more interesting is to know, what will happen with the Su-35? Will they remain within the 6th AB or transferred to another unit or will Suixi's 6th Air Brigade become a mega-unit with both Su-35 and J-16s?

 

[weig2000]

I agree that J-16 is likely to replace old JH-7/A brigades, su-30, su-27 and some J-11 brigades.

It would be interesting to see when J-16 production would stop. They seemed to be doing 2 batches a year recently. So, batch 9/10 last year and 11/12 this year. So about 50 a year the last couple of years and close to 300 by the end of this year. How many J-16s do they really need. Based on the recent rumblings about J-35, I think it is likely to start LRIP soon enough and then join service by 2025 (if we use J-20 timeframe of 2014 for 2011 and then early 2018 induction). Given the really fast production of J-20, SAC will need to quickly ramp up production of 5th gen IMO.

I saw Lyman2003 is claiming 432 J-16/16D eventually. About 400 J-16s seems to be a reasonable number. I'm guessing they need at least 50 to 60 J-16Ds. I think this means 1 more year of 2 batches and maybe 2 more years of 1 batch a year. So production for the regular J-16 will probably finish by 2025 I think. J-15B and J-16D may continue a little more. I anticipate them to ramp up production for J-35 in 2024 to 2026 timeframe.

I have long projected, multiple times, that China will eventually produce 500-600 J-16/J-16D. Considering the following:

1. J-16 is not a competitor to J-20 and, for that matter, J-35. It's actually complementary to J-20.
2. China needs heavyweight fighter aircraft, much more than, say, medium weight flighers such as J-10C.
3. J-16 is a multi-role fighter aircraft. It's advanced and it's versatile. It can replace multiple older aircraft currently in service with PLAAF, including Su-30MKK/Su-30MKK2/JH-7A, even J-11B/Su-35.
4. J-16 will have useful and important role to play in the Western Pacific theater and the Western Theater, for a long time to come.

The factors that influence the final total production number of J-16 include the total number and ratio between J-16 and J-20 and, to the less extent, J-31 (the PLAAF variant of J-35). In time, there will also be some "conflict" between the further production of J-16 and that of J-20 and J-31, in terms of production capacity, budget and available number of fighter brigades. I also believe that J-35 will go into production likely in 2025, but I doubt J-31 will be ready at the same time though. J-35 has the priority and J-31 will only come later. In any case, the production will take at least two years to ramp up. I also doubt WS-19 will be ready by 2025, might be by 2027 though. They will use WS-13E initially for limited production numbers but will want to switch to WS-19 for later and larger production batches.

For all the reasons above, I believe they should and probably will continue to produce J-16/J-16D until 2027, at the annual rate of around 50. After that, mass production of J-35/J-31 may take over. By the way, I believe, one more, likely two more aircraft carriers will be commissioned by the end of the decade.

 

[Atomicfrog]

I agree that J-16 is likely to replace old JH-7/A brigades, su-30, su-27 and some J-11 brigades.

It would be interesting to see when J-16 production would stop. They seemed to be doing 2 batches a year recently. So, batch 9/10 last year and 11/12 this year. So about 50 a year the last couple of years and close to 300 by the end of this year. How many J-16s do they really need. Based on the recent rumblings about J-35, I think it is likely to start LRIP soon enough and then join service by 2025 (if we use J-20 timeframe of 2014 for 2011 and then early 2018 induction). Given the really fast production of J-20, SAC will need to quickly ramp up production of 5th gen IMO.

I saw Lyman2003 is claiming 432 J-16/16D eventually. About 400 J-16s seems to be a reasonable number. I'm guessing they need at least 50 to 60 J-16Ds. I think this means 1 more year of 2 batches and maybe 2 more years of 1 batch a year. So production for the regular J-16 will probably finish by 2025 I think. J-15B and J-16D may continue a little more. I anticipate them to ramp up production for J-35 in 2024 to 2026 timeframe.

J-11a and Su-35 will be the last fighters using Russian ammo stockpiles after the replacement of SU-30mkk ? First J-11 brigade replaced will be the old types for sure...so Su-35 will remain the last Russian bound fighter. Not sure for how long China will use them, maybe it's possible for Russia to buy them back to replace lost, they will just be logistic burden anyway.

 

[Jingle Bells]

I did a bit more digging, and I am able to find an image of a Su-30MKI carrying a R-77 on that station. However I'm unsure if it is rated for actual operational carriage on that station, and I can't say I've seen a Su-30MKK or MKI carrying a R-77 on that station in flight.

Nevertheless, in the case of J-16, at this stage we should not assume that it is capable of doing so.

=====






Here's a more interesting question for everyone -- so, we all know that the J-16 traces its lineage to the Su-30MKK that the PLA bought.

Well, looking at some of the promotional material for the Su-30MK family, in terms of its BVRAAM compatible wing stations, only its second from the centre pylon seems rated for BVRAAMs, even though the innermost wing stations are clearly rated to be able to carry heavier A2G ordnance, see here:

(What's odd, is that I've been able to find images of some Su-30MKIs with BVRAAM mockkups on those innermost wing stations in flight, but none for Su-30MKKs or J-16s)


And I've just scoured quite a few images we have of the J-16, and I cannot find any picture of it carrying a BVRAAM at the innermost wing stations.
Now, I find that interesting because I feel like there shouldn't be any reason why that innermost wing station would not be rated for BVRAAM carriage, and my working assumption has always been that it was compatible, and that perhaps we just don't have that many pictures of PLA Flankers carrying a full load and those innermost wing stations are the lowest in priority for BVRAAM carriage.


But, I would throw out this question for various people reading this thread -- are you able to find a picture of a J-16 carrying a regular sized BVRAAM (i.e.: PL-12 or PL-15), at one of the innermost wing weapons stations (circled red below)?

I ask this out of my own curiosity, as I expect those stations should be BVR compatible, but the lack of any images in my search is somewhat jarring.

I've seen that load chart elsewhere before. I think something like the new 500kg LS-6 with the power booster would be a good addition to the J-16 arsenal. I presume it would be around 600kg or a little more. This makes it the same weight as Kh29, AKD88, etc. The one I am talking about is shown below:


If it can be procured cheaply, it would be a very good low cost stand-off precision attack option.

One J-16 can carry 6 of these in one sortie, with jamming pods, guidance pods, and more than a couple of different AAM. F-18 can do a maximum of 10 1000lb JDAM.

 

[caohailiang]

I did a bit more digging, and I am able to find an image of a Su-30MKI carrying a R-77 on that station. However I'm unsure if it is rated for actual operational carriage on that station, and I can't say I've seen a Su-30MKK or MKI carrying a R-77 on that station in flight.

Nevertheless, in the case of J-16, at this stage we should not assume that it is capable of doing so.

=====






Here's a more interesting question for everyone -- so, we all know that the J-16 traces its lineage to the Su-30MKK that the PLA bought.

Well, looking at some of the promotional material for the Su-30MK family, in terms of its BVRAAM compatible wing stations, only its second from the centre pylon seems rated for BVRAAMs, even though the innermost wing stations are clearly rated to be able to carry heavier A2G ordnance, see here:

(What's odd, is that I've been able to find images of some Su-30MKIs with BVRAAM mockkups on those innermost wing stations in flight, but none for Su-30MKKs or J-16s)


And I've just scoured quite a few images we have of the J-16, and I cannot find any picture of it carrying a BVRAAM at the innermost wing stations.
Now, I find that interesting because I feel like there shouldn't be any reason why that innermost wing station would not be rated for BVRAAM carriage, and my working assumption has always been that it was compatible, and that perhaps we just don't have that many pictures of PLA Flankers carrying a full load and those innermost wing stations are the lowest in priority for BVRAAM carriage.


But, I would throw out this question for various people reading this thread -- are you able to find a picture of a J-16 carrying a regular sized BVRAAM (i.e.: PL-12 or PL-15), at one of the innermost wing weapons stations (circled red below)?

I ask this out of my own curiosity, as I expect those stations should be BVR compatible, but the lack of any images in my search is somewhat jarring.

does this one count (from 2021 zhuhai)

 

[Blitzo]

I've seen that load chart elsewhere before. I think something like the new 500kg LS-6 with the power booster would be a good addition to the J-16 arsenal. I presume it would be around 600kg or a little more. This makes it the same weight as Kh29, AKD88, etc. The one I am talking about is shown below:
View attachment 102456

If it can be procured cheaply, it would be a very good low cost stand-off precision attack option.

One J-16 can carry 6 of these in one sortie, with jamming pods, guidance pods, and more than a couple of different AAM. F-18 can do a maximum of 10 1000lb JDAM.

??? How does that relate to my previous post.

My previous post did not talk about air to ground munitions at all.


If you want to talk about air to ground munitions in a separate capacity fine, and I do of course agree that glide wing bombs with add on propulsion kits would certainly be a useful addition to the PLA... However that seems to be jumping the gun a bit, because as I've written many times in the past in the PLA munitions thread, we have yet to know what actual direct attack PGMs the PLA actually has in service.

Thankfully with Zhuhai recently it seems that we can confirm the 1000kg LGB is at least in service, but apart from that, we don't really know (leaving aside the unpowered glide munitions dispensers like GB6 pattern).


.... All of which is to say, before we start thinking about LS-6s with propulsion units, let's first aim for a lower goal and consider if the PLA even has any normal FT or LS family PGMs in service in the 250kg or 500kg categories.

does this one count (from 2021 zhuhai)

No, because it is not a real aircraft.

 

[siegecrossbow]

I did a bit more digging, and I am able to find an image of a Su-30MKI carrying a R-77 on that station. However I'm unsure if it is rated for actual operational carriage on that station, and I can't say I've seen a Su-30MKK or MKI carrying a R-77 on that station in flight.

Nevertheless, in the case of J-16, at this stage we should not assume that it is capable of doing so.

=====






Here's a more interesting question for everyone -- so, we all know that the J-16 traces its lineage to the Su-30MKK that the PLA bought.

Well, looking at some of the promotional material for the Su-30MK family, in terms of its BVRAAM compatible wing stations, only its second from the centre pylon seems rated for BVRAAMs, even though the innermost wing stations are clearly rated to be able to carry heavier A2G ordnance, see here:

(What's odd, is that I've been able to find images of some Su-30MKIs with BVRAAM mockkups on those innermost wing stations in flight, but none for Su-30MKKs or J-16s)


And I've just scoured quite a few images we have of the J-16, and I cannot find any picture of it carrying a BVRAAM at the innermost wing stations.
Now, I find that interesting because I feel like there shouldn't be any reason why that innermost wing station would not be rated for BVRAAM carriage, and my working assumption has always been that it was compatible, and that perhaps we just don't have that many pictures of PLA Flankers carrying a full load and those innermost wing stations are the lowest in priority for BVRAAM carriage.


But, I would throw out this question for various people reading this thread -- are you able to find a picture of a J-16 carrying a regular sized BVRAAM (i.e.: PL-12 or PL-15), at one of the innermost wing weapons stations (circled red below)?

I ask this out of my own curiosity, as I expect those stations should be BVR compatible, but the lack of any images in my search is somewhat jarring.

I thought that was a common misconception? J-16 technically came from the Su-27UB branch.

 

[stannislas]

I thought that was a common misconception? J-16 technically came from the Su-27UB branch.

you sure it’s not su-30mkk? some of the combat functions wasn’t even on the su-27ub…

 

[Blitzo]

I thought that was a common misconception? J-16 technically came from the Su-27UB branch.

I'm sure that in practice the J-16 is not directly from any specific lone Flanker branch, but the greatest commonalities it has is with the Su-30MKK.

In any case, the specific question is just whether anyone has any pictures of a real J-16 carrying a normal sized BVR AAM in the innermost wing pylon.