China demographics thread.


Minm

Junior Member
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If you look at the statistics I posted above, the drop in China's birth rate is not due to Covid. The number of marriages has been falling since 2013 and are down 50%. The birth rate started to plunge in 2018. There was an 15% plunge in births already apparent in 2020, but that cohort of mothers mostly conceived in 2019. Also, the decline in first marriages accelerated in 2019, which could explain that drop. So the trend definitely precedes Covid.
So what happened in 2017/2018 that reduced the birthrate? The only major event was the trade war, but economically 2017-2019 wasn't that bad. So what's your theory on why there's such a sudden decrease in fertility?
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

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In 2014,the so called "demographic expert" Zhai Zhenwu predicted that:the second year after policy allowing two child per family,China will have 50 million new born. Now he become a laughing stock.

There are too many unqualified expert leading all kinds of wrong policies
I think he is from corrupt ex-family planning committee. They were defending they corrupt income I believe. That agency was one of the most corrupt places, good it was dissolved.
 

supercat

Captain
rJKKtkw.jpg

What worries some people most is that China will get old before getting rich. However, China will get older while getting richer.

Why China is anti-fragile​

Dan Blumenthal illustrates by negative example how utterly wrongheaded Washington’s strategic approach has been
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Declining workforce can be mitigated by improving productivity.

Robotic upside to China’s demographic decline​

Fewer workers mean more industrial robots, greater efficiency and higher value-added
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For those who are interested, here is a research paper about China's economic demography transition strategy.
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Lethe

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We remain in a national state of denial over the magnitude of China’s challenge to us, and Blumenthal’s error-ridden account shows how hard it is to sustain this self-consoling fiction in the face of massive evidence to the contrary. It is high time to focus on what China does right rather than what it does wrong – and undertake to do it better.

The author of this review fails to reckon with the power of American mythology. How things are done in America is, by definition, the best way to do things, for America is the greatest nation the world has ever seen and has nothing to learn from anyone, certainly nothing to learn from communists.

America's self-satisfied mythology impedes its ability to respond to the rise of China, and for this Beijing should be grateful. The ongoing challenge for Beijing is to ensure that China does not fall victim to its own mythologies that engender complacency and impede the adoption of evidence-based policies to meet changing circumstances.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
rJKKtkw.jpg

What worries some people most is that China will get old before getting rich. However, China will get older while getting richer.
The chart is not accurate. When they say get old before getting rich it usually means that the working population can't support the old/retired people

As such, for China it should show the figures for "Aged 55+" not "Aged 65+"
 

luminary

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I think one important idea is that there is a need to reverse the idea of a single child household, and create societal expectations for 2+ children. Promote films and media that depict sibling interactions and large happy families. Romanticize it and make it feel like something that will enrich the quality of a child's family life. Consistent messaging, normalize it.

The government should get the elderly in on it, have them hassle their kids about giving the family more grandchildren :D . Social pressure in China is a powerful and self-perpetuating force.
 

BlackWindMnt

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I think one important idea is that there is a need to reverse the idea of a single child household, and create societal expectations for 2+ children. Promote films and media that depict sibling interactions and large happy families. Romanticize it and make it feel like something that will enrich the quality of a child's family life. Consistent messaging, normalize it.

The government should get the elderly in on it, have them hassle their kids about giving the family more grandchildren :D . Social pressure in China is a powerful and self-perpetuating force.
Anyone with Asian parent(s) already knows, the government doesn't have to step in to convince parents....
:p
 

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