Miscellaneous News

plawolf

Lieutenant General
That EU Parliament is a proper circus

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Cant wait until end of November to see EU industries shutting down due to magnesium shortages. Lets see then, how "brave" and "courageous" they would look...
It’s not enough to sanction the clown politicians themselves. China should design targeted sanctions designed specifically and explicitly to hit the regions where these clowns are elected.

MEP elections have long been seen as a waste of time joke by the overwhelming majority of the people these clowns are supposed to be elected to represent, with piss poor turnout rates. Maybe some sharp economic pain will make them realise electing clowns and buffoons to represent your interests is a bad idea.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Like Afghanistan, a War for Taiwan is Unwinnable

Applying the lessons learned from both Vietnam and Afghanistan could prove fruitful when considering the possibility of the United States intervening militarily to defend Taiwan from China.

by Lyle J. Goldstein


........Regrettably, the comparison does actually have merit. As in the Afghanistan War, a military conflict over Taiwan would represent a thoroughly unwinnable military scenario entailing significant and even catastrophic U.S. combat losses due largely to the brutal facts of geography. Just as our commitment to our friends in Kabul was always rather dubious, most Americans could not find Taiwan on a map. Washington abrogated its defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979 as a condition of having diplomatic relations with Beijing. Corruption plagued the U.S.-supported regime and its armed forces in Kabul, moreover, and rather similarly the Taiwan leadership also evinces a shocking lack of commitment to its own defense, and the Taiwan armed forces seem, perhaps as a result, to be rife with mismanagement and incompetence.

Yet the most decisive factor will again be nationalism. Beijing has indicated that it is willing to bear any burden to reunify the nation. That determination sounds quite familiar from the American experiences in fighting both the Vietcong and also the Taliban. And so do the rather flimsy rationales for U.S. intervention, such as “preserving U.S. credibility” or safeguarding the “rules-based order.” Blundering into yet another civil war, but this time against a nuclear-armed and thoroughly prepared opponent would, unfortunately, result in consequences far more devastating for the United States than these other disastrous conflicts.

Lyle J. Goldstein is Director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities.

Read the rest of the article/essay on the link below.


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plawolf

Lieutenant General
Like Afghanistan, a War for Taiwan is Unwinnable

Applying the lessons learned from both Vietnam and Afghanistan could prove fruitful when considering the possibility of the United States intervening militarily to defend Taiwan from China.

by Lyle J. Goldstein


........Regrettably, the comparison does actually have merit. As in the Afghanistan War, a military conflict over Taiwan would represent a thoroughly unwinnable military scenario entailing significant and even catastrophic U.S. combat losses due largely to the brutal facts of geography. Just as our commitment to our friends in Kabul was always rather dubious, most Americans could not find Taiwan on a map. Washington abrogated its defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979 as a condition of having diplomatic relations with Beijing. Corruption plagued the U.S.-supported regime and its armed forces in Kabul, moreover, and rather similarly the Taiwan leadership also evinces a shocking lack of commitment to its own defense, and the Taiwan armed forces seem, perhaps as a result, to be rife with mismanagement and incompetence.

Yet the most decisive factor will again be nationalism. Beijing has indicated that it is willing to bear any burden to reunify the nation. That determination sounds quite familiar from the American experiences in fighting both the Vietcong and also the Taliban. And so do the rather flimsy rationales for U.S. intervention, such as “preserving U.S. credibility” or safeguarding the “rules-based order.” Blundering into yet another civil war, but this time against a nuclear-armed and thoroughly prepared opponent would, unfortunately, result in consequences far more devastating for the United States than these other disastrous conflicts.

Lyle J. Goldstein is Director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities.

Read the rest of the article/essay on the link below.


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A move in the right direction, but ultimately still rooted in the deep past without any acknowledgement of the realities otoday.

The entire piece is based on the premise that China will wear America down through relentless attrition, like the Vietcong and Taliban, where America wins the battles but looses the war through a deficit of will.

But the reality is that in a war over Taiwan, US forces are highly likely to be soundly defeated, and probably with extreme losses and massively adverse kill-death ratios, as their own war game simulations show time and again.

America is thoroughly unprepared for the deep psychological trauma such a devastating straight up military defeat will do to a nation and people who makes their military prowess such a central part of their self identity and source of national pride and social cohesion. Not to mention is standing in the world amongst allies and adversaries alike.

The best thing for America to do is to not fight China over Taiwan. Since to fight and loose there, as they are very likely to with the odds stacked against them, would likely see the US empire suffer a similar downwards spiral as the British after they lost their American colonies. It won’t be the end of the American empire, just like how the British empire endured for over a century after American independence, but it will never be the same and never again achieve the lofty heights of its prime.

To be fair to American strategists, they seem to have seen through the weaponised BS the western MSM produces on a truly industrial scale, and realised this new reality, which is why they are now trying to shift the potential battleground to the India ocean. Sadly, their political masters are all too keen to drink the Kool Aid and cannot swallow the idea of retreating from their current positions nose to nose with China in China’s front yard.
 

Maikeru

Captain
Registered Member
A move in the right direction, but ultimately still rooted in the deep past without any acknowledgement of the realities otoday.

The entire piece is based on the premise that China will wear America down through relentless attrition, like the Vietcong and Taliban, where America wins the battles but looses the war through a deficit of will.

But the reality is that in a war over Taiwan, US forces are highly likely to be soundly defeated, and probably with extreme losses and massively adverse kill-death ratios, as their own war game simulations show time and again.

America is thoroughly unprepared for the deep psychological trauma such a devastating straight up military defeat will do to a nation and people who makes their military prowess such a central part of their self identity and source of national pride and social cohesion. Not to mention is standing in the world amongst allies and adversaries alike.

The best thing for America to do is to not fight China over Taiwan. Since to fight and loose there, as they are very likely to with the odds stacked against them, would likely see the US empire suffer a similar downwards spiral as the British after they lost their American colonies. It won’t be the end of the American empire, just like how the British empire endured for over a century after American independence, but it will never be the same and never again achieve the lofty heights of its prime.

To be fair to American strategists, they seem to have seen through the weaponised BS the western MSM produces on a truly industrial scale, and realised this new reality, which is why they are now trying to shift the potential battleground to the India ocean. Sadly, their political masters are all too keen to drink the Kool Aid and cannot swallow the idea of retreating from their current positions nose to nose with China in China’s front yard.
Small but important point. UK lost the American colonies in 1783 but the zenith of the British Empire was about 120 years after that. You need to read a few more Flashman novels, my friend. You can start here:
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weig2000

Captain

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The current U.S. foreign policy is delusional. Its attempts to command the world are getting laughed at. How did this happen and what might change it?

Here are excerpts from two smart essays which discuss the theme.

Alastair Crooke asks why somehow nothing seems to be working within Joe Biden's United States. He then
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At the international geo-political plane, things don’t seem to be working either. Team Biden says it wants a ‘managed competition’ with China, but why then send Wendy Sherman (who is not noted for her diplomatic skills) to China as Biden’s envoy? Why has there been this continuous chip-chipping away at the 1972 ‘One China’ policy with a series of small, seemingly innocuous moves on Taiwan if Team Biden wants contained competition (what he said he wants in a recent call with President Xi), but falters, time after time, to instigate a serious relationship?
Does the Team not understand that it is not ‘containing’ competition, but rather playing-with-fire, through its’ opaque hints that the U.S. might support Taiwan independence?
And then, why of all people, dispatch Victoria Nuland to Moscow, if the competition with Moscow was to be quietly ‘balanced out’ as Biden’s face-to-face with Putin in Geneva seemed to signal? Like Sherman, Nuland was not received at a senior level, and her ‘Maidan arsonist’ reputation of course preceded her in Moscow. And why decimate Russia’s diplomatic representation at NATO HQ, and why have Secretary Austin talk in Georgia and Ukraine of NATO’s ‘open door’?
Is there some hidden logic to this, or were these envoys intentionally sent as some kind of ‘kick-ass’ provocative gesture to underline who’s boss (i.e. America is Back!)? This is known in Washington as ‘capitulation diplomacy’ – competitors are presented with only the terms of their capitulation. If so, it didn’t work. Both envoys effectively were sent packing, and Washington’s relations with these key states are degraded to near zero.
The Russia-China axis have come to the conclusion that polite diplomatic discourse with Washington is like water off a duck’s back. The U.S. and its European protégés simply do not hear what Moscow or Beijing says to them – so what is the point to talking to ‘tin-eared’ Americans? Answer: None.
Prof. Michael Brenner recently send a longer diagnose of the U.S. political sphere to his mailing list. He sees the same foreign policy problems as Crooke does and tries to answer some of the questions Crooke is asking:

The United States’ mounting hostility toward China should be understood in reference to the anxieties and anguish of a declining hegemon.
[...]
[T]he great American experiment itself is now obviously in jeopardy. [..] A country that held the world in awe as the land where the ‘common man’ reigned does not passively accept its degeneration into a predatory oligarchy. It does not experience the degradation of public discourse to the point where candor is an endangered species and truth itself homeless.
As the connection to reality loosens, disengagement approaches the point where reality ceases to have any claim of primacy over illusion. One inhabits an insular world from which other things, other persons only have meanings as players in the life drama that you have scripted. When those others resist playing those roles, they are cajoled, coerced and then punished. We literally refuse to take ‘NO’ as an answer. Let’s look at the tack repeatedly taken with foreign governments to discern how this dynamic works out in practice.
On China. Anthony Blinken flies to Anchorage to instruct his Chinese counterpart, Foreign Minister Wang Li, that Beijing should stop doing things that the United States objects to, and instead should do as we tell them. Wang’s response, in diplomatic language, is “shove it!” Some months later, Blinken calls Wang with the identical message – and gets the identical response. In between, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, flies to the PRC where she meets Foreign Ministry officials to whom she gives a familiar shopping list of American demands spelling out how we want Beijing to correct its misbehavior. Her interlocutor, in exchange, hands her a Chinese shopping list accompanied by a lecture that boils down to “shove it!” And so on.
On Russia: The exact pattern repeats itself in meetings between Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on the American side, and senior Kremlin officials - foremost being the formidable Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov. These exchanges are punctuated by an in-person summit between Presidents Biden and Putin held in Geneva at the White House’s request. Biden's main purpose was to calm the waters he himself had churned up by encouraging Ukrainian President Zelensky to make preparations for an assault on the Donbas. Caught by surprise at the stern Russian response, he was forced to backpedal. The diplomatic retreat was covered by a rote restatement of American criticisms re. Crimea, alleged electoral interference, Syria, human rights and Navalny (the born-again democrat who first made his mark as a rabid Muslim-phobic rabble-rouser). As per usual, Putin coolly refuted all the charges, noted some of Russia's own complaints, and make a concrete proposal to open a round of talks on strategic nuclear arms. Washington has shown no interest in the last. So, the two men parted ways. Product? Zero.
As a final tragic-comic twist, Biden subsequently sends Victoria Nuland to Moscow – yes, the same Nuland declared persona non grata by Russia for her role as provocateur in the Ukrainian coup and notorious vilifier of Putin and the Kremlin. Her rancorous visitation pretty much slammed shut the window insofar as any serious dialogue between Washington and Moscow is concerned [..].
Beyond icing the new Cold War with Russia, did she succeed in the ancillary objective to scare the Kremlin away from too close an embrace of Beijing with a show-down over Taiwan in the offing? Anybody who believes that is possible never has bothered to study Vladimir Putin or to examine Russian history. Sadly, that category includes Washington’s top decision-makers. By comparison, name-calling is more fun and much less taxing on the gray cells.
[...]
The American plan to construct a cordon sanitaire around China exhibits a similar type of repetitive, unyielding behavior. Vietnam, a candidate to join the anti-China alliance, is paid visits by two high-powered American leaders. First, Secretary of Defense General Lloyd Austin flies into Hanoi to make the case for the Vietnamese to throw in their lot with the United States – the two parties familiar with each other from the last movie. Nothing doing. A while later it’s the turn of Vice-President Kamala Harris who punctuates her fruitless discussions with press conference remarks denouncing China and implying support for an independent Taiwan. Her hosts are not pleased.
This is not normal behavior; it is pathological. It speaks of the disengagement from reality noted above. And it is exceedingly dangerous since it disregards the actual attitudes and actions of others in the relentless effort to project onto them caricatured images, simplified conceptions of who they are and how they can be manipulated suited to the crude script we authored. Information from without, and the understanding that it encourages, are filtered and excluded whenever inconvenient. Instead, it is the introverted world of self-delusion alone that sources our distorted cognitive maps.
America’s political elites have fostered a phantasmagoric approach to the world as increasingly is evident. Its multiple manifestations in regard to China seem to include the unfounded belief that Beijing’s leaders are bluffing when they solemnly avow that moves toward Taiwan independence are intolerable, that they are prepared to go to war if necessary and expect to win any contest of arms were it to occur. While it is more likely that Washington is the one bluffing, our greatest fear should be that Biden et al actually think that they can intimidate China. That conceit conforms to mythic notions of American exceptionalism.
Until now, the war-against-China imaginings have been an elite pastime. The public has been kept in the dark as three successive Presidents have inched the country closer and closer to conflict. How Americans react when they find themselves on the brink is the crucial, unknowable ‘X’ factor in the equation.
Alastair Crooke closes his essay with a rather hopeful view:

It seems that Russia and China, seeing all this, will remain aloof and patient – waiting upon structures to crack.
That crack in U.S. structures however may become a very dangerous moment for Russia and China. Professor Brenner thinks that only the threat of a potentially very violent scenario can cause the 'structural crack' that brings things the U.S. back to sanity:

I fear that we’ll need something like the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 when the U.S. and Soviet Union came to the brink of nuclear war in order to get peoples’ heads screwed on straight. At both the elite and popular level, it is only fear of war that, on a purely pragmatic basis, will break the comatose intellectual/political state that the United States is in.
 
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