Breaking & World News! III NO DISCUSSION!!


gelgoog

Colonel
Registered Member
some of you might be sick and tired of these updates of mine on price capping, but the situation is ever-changing, and I think it's interesting to see this weird chess match live
apparently next week the EU commission will officially propose putting an 80-90€ price cap only on russian methane from Jamal, Soyuz and Fratellanza pipelines.
the official motive is that as soon as the price of gas futures went down to 80€ in the early weeks of june, russia announced that it was having technical issues pumping the gas, making the price jump up to the current levels (125€). EU authorities believe that russia is manipulating the price by withholding the gas
the proposal hinges on the assumption by EU authorities that russia doesn't want to stop selling the gas, especially since it cannot be easily diverted to asian pipelines
my understanding is that they will try to force russia to sell at those prices since russia either sells the gas destined to europe or it doesn't.
from the commission pov russia would be better off selling at the dictated price than not sell it altogether
The EU are being retarded idiots. How about giving Russia back the gas turbines they sent to Siemens for repair? Do they think the gas moves through the Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic by the power of Putin's will? Great German Siemens company which can't even repair turbines in Europe and had to send them to Canada to fix. Teutonic engineering in action. Is it too much of a shame to have to beg Canada to break the sanctions the West themselves imposed on Russia? You know the sanctions on all oil & gas equipment and support.
And you know what. Russia used to have fixed price contracts with the EU. It was fixed price contract indexed to oil typically around €80. This is standard industry practice and Qatar for example does this. It is the EU which demanded these variable rate contracts determined by a market located in the Netherlands. The EU wanted to buy gas for cheap in the off peak season, store it, and not buy gas in the winter. They wanted to buy gas for €40. Because the US was dumping LNG off peak at €40 so of course Russia had to sell at €40. But you know what, that is not how gas wells operate. You need to have continuous draw or you risk causing induced seismicity i.e. earthquakes and possible collapse of the gas well. But tell that to EU beancounters with their precious MBAs.

You know what? Russia has the largest gas storage capacity in the whole of Europe. And given it is this time of the year the storage is likely pretty empty since winter peak period is over. Russia has storage for 72.6 bcm of gas. It sells 150 bcm to Europe a year. So you do the math on how many months Russia can continue with this game of chicken by diverting gas to storage instead of sending it to Europe. And you know what? Gas isn't oil. If Russia wants to keep pressure in the wells, they can just flare the gas for all they care. And if you think they will blink at doing this. You would be wrong. Gas exports is 1/4th of oil exports.

Europe better act like responsible people. When I can't pay my gas bill, I don't go to my utility and tell them the price is too high, so I will only pay this amount that I want to pay and get away with it. The gas gets cut. Effin dolts.

They should have paid €80 fixed price. They wanted to pay €40 variable price. They paid €40 allright. Now variable rate is €125. They complain. You can't have it both ways. F the EU. Next time don't get advice on energy pricing from UK and Netherlands stock exchange.
 
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Abominable

Senior Member
Registered Member
Hmmm how about the blockade and sanction Lithuania in return and let’s see how they like them marbles. Surely if the EU can allow this to happen, the reverse is true as well
Lithuania has a border with Poland so blockading them isn't an option. Sanctioning will take too long to have an effect.

In terms of retaliation, it could be anything up to targeted missile strikes, but I think it should be low key.

Since it's the Lithuanian border guards that are stopping goods, I'd just claimed they illegally entered Russian territory and detain them. Once they've spent a bit of time in Russian custody I think they won't be so brave.

Russia did something similair in 2014 against Ukraine as a warning.
 

Temstar

Major
Registered Member
Russia isn't going to sit around and do nothing while Lithuania is trying to starve their people.
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Mr Su's suggestion was for GRU to earn its keep and track down and capture some Lithuanian mercenaries in Ukraine, say in Lysychansk. Then Russia can take them to the Belarus-Lithuania border and say for each day you blockade Kaliningard we publicly execute one mercenary.

At this point Mr Yang admonished Mr Su for ISIS like tactics and say the correct thing to do would be the offer Lithuania the return of one Lithuanian mercenary for each train they allow through.
 

gelgoog

Colonel
Registered Member
Russia can just use the Baltic fleet and blockade all the Baltics states. Good luck getting your US LNG via the terminal at Latvia.
The port activity in the Baltics is a huge fraction of their economy. Blockade their ports, and watch them scream.

But I suspect Russia will just do something simple. Like snap military exercises with Belarus near the Belarussian Nuclear Power Plant. Try looking at where that is on a map.

1656045705350.png
 
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ironborn

Junior Member
Registered Member
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Mr Su's suggestion was for GRU to earn its keep and track down and capture some Lithuanian mercenaries in Ukraine, say in Lysychansk. Then Russia can take them to the Belarus-Lithuania border and say for each day you blockade Kaliningard we publicly execute one mercenary.

At this point Mr Yang admonished Mr Su for ISIS like tactics and say the correct thing to do would be the offer Lithuania the return of one Lithuanian mercenary for each train they allow through.
As I recall back in Soviet Union days, when someone kidnapped a Soviet citizen, KGB tracks the kidnappers' family down, grab them and send the family member back in small boxes piece by piece to the kidnapper till Soviet citizen is released.

Someone once summarized, when back in the days Americans send special ops illegally to another country to carry out covert operation, they erase any evidences that can trace special ops back to US, the Soviets just lay a Soviet flag on the corpse and make sure you know who off you to the next life.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
This kind of apostatising here is so disapointing generally, I actually yearn for the days both BD and JHD were around RIP. More aggressive and unannounced calls for adherence to SDF "laws". That said, this post would qualify.

@AssasinsMace I expected better from you honestly, after having read through your posts the past decade.

No I'm not a mod, I just think this place can and should do better in terms of developing actual discord. Particularly as the primary forms of information disclosure seem lacklustre.

*e typo
You're not the audience I'm talking to. I'm glad those days are gone. It's called free speech. Look it up.
 

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