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Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
What's the geopolitical implications of this move especially with respect to the global supply of wheat. What was the cause for this dramatic action taken by the Indian government. Was this due to the severe heat related to climate change or some other factors that I just haven't factored in.
India doesn't export much wheat, only taking up like 1% of the world wheat export market, but it would still exacerbate the global crop shortage we're currently in. The cause is likely the points you made above, and they are trying to save as much crops for themselves to prevent finding themselves in a scenario near future, where they would need to fight over limited supply in the global market.
 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
India doesn't export much wheat, only taking up like 1% of the world wheat export market, but it would still exacerbate the global crop shortage we're currently in. The cause is likely the points you made above, and they are trying to save as much crops for themselves to prevent finding themselves in a scenario near future, where they would need to fight over limited supply in the global market.

I am wondering if China is going to ban grain exports.

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Coalescence

Senior Member
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I am wondering if China is going to ban grain exports.

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Pretty weird why they haven't done it yet, maybe contracts to fulfill or higher profit with the current benchmark prices? But I think they may soon need to ban or restrict exports, because this problem is going to get worse as time goes.
 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
Pretty weird why they haven't done it yet, maybe contracts to fulfill or higher profit with the current benchmark prices? But I think they may soon need to ban or restrict exports, because this problem is going to get worse as time goes.

There is another article from 2 days ago. The other one above is 5 days ago.

Observers pointed out that the crisis in Ukraine has had a limited impact on domestic food prices and supplies of agricultural products. However, they made calls to be vigilant of the development of the situation.

China significantly increased grain exports on a monthly basis in April, even as more countries restricted food exports or intervened food trade. Grain exports totaled 312,000 tons in April, up 97.4 percent month-on-month. From January to April, grain exports totaled 916,000 tons, according to statistics released on Monday by the General Administration of Customs of China.

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Between Jan-April. 916,000 tons of grain has been exported with 312,000 tons in April alone.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
What's the geopolitical implications of this move especially with respect to the global supply of wheat. What was the cause for this dramatic action taken by the Indian government. Was this due to the severe heat related to climate change or some other factors that I just haven't factored in.
Climate change and water stress will ultimately accelerate this trend.
Pre-Ukraine it was all East-West Trade. Post Ukraine it is North-South Trade.
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Andy1974

Senior Member
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Egypt recently announced they are buying wheat from India, I knew as soon as I heard it that there was no way India was going to be able to fulfil that promise.

With all that is happening in India, i don’t think it can feed itself. China will have to export grain to India to relive an upcoming famine, not that they will be grateful.

It is an excellent move to start exporting grain, it’s very hard to sanction a country that provides food to you or your friends.

Of course, China will always hold it own rice bowl firmly, but their grain production is increasing quite rapidly due to newly allowed genetic modifications to certain crops as well as their huge investments in high quality farmland and online/automated farming technologies, fertilizer production, and even the enticing possibility of vat grown starch which can free up huge tracts of grazing land for more high quality planting.

Couple this with massive, long term contracted, imports from countries like USA, Russia and Ukraine which uses up a lot of those countries available capacity to export, along with new overland routes for food imports from ASEAN and already achieved emergency food storage system and we see that China may be the country that is best positioned to increase food/grain exports over the short term.

China could soon be exporting food to those in desperate need like they do vaccines today, while America will only be able to barely feed itself while blaming China for stealing all their food production, which they are now using to garner good will around the world.
 

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
Egypt recently announced they are buying wheat from India, I knew as soon as I heard it that there was no way India was going to be able to fulfil that promise.

With all that is happening in India, i don’t think it can feed itself. China will have to export grain to India to relive an upcoming famine, not that they will be grateful.

It is an excellent move to start exporting grain, it’s very hard to sanction a country that provides food to you or your friends.

Of course, China will always hold it own rice bowl firmly, but their grain production is increasing quite rapidly due to newly allowed genetic modifications to certain crops as well as their huge investments in high quality farmland and online/automated farming technologies, fertilizer production, and even the enticing possibility of vat grown starch which can free up huge tracts of grazing land for more high quality planting.

Couple this with massive, long term contracted, imports from countries like USA, Russia and Ukraine which uses up a lot of those countries available capacity to export, along with new overland routes for food imports from ASEAN and already achieved emergency food storage system and we see that China may be the country that is best positioned to increase food/grain exports over the short term.

China could soon be exporting food to those in desperate need like they do vaccines today, while America will only be able to barely feed itself while blaming China for stealing all their food production, which they are now using to garner good will around the world.
China got here today by getting everyone else dependent on its production. China should export wheat the India and use that as a strong bargaining piece in future conflicts.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think the global time report of China's "sharp increase of grain export in April" is a bit sensational than substantial. The figure is 97.4% from March at 312,000 tons. The only thing that would catch attention is 97.4% jump. Remember one ton to 1.974 tone is 97.4% jump.

The question everyone should ask is what was the export of the whole 2021, 2020 etc.? Is the export evenly distributed over the year? Certainly not, they follow the harvest. In Jan and Feb you having nothing to export, in Mars you have some, in April you have a lot, in June you have nothing because that is the time you finished all the production from the land and begin to plant the next harvest. Note, this is only the example of wheat in the north, in the south rice goes another pattern and could have even 3 harvests per year in the extreme south. So just get the idea of it.

We should also ask what was the import in the recent past? It is well known that China significantly increased import in 2021. The country only have limited granaries to hold the food reserves. More than that grains will be rotting in the open if not exported or consumed.

This over excitement resembles the noise of US successfully forced China to comply the sanction of Iran because China's import of Iranian crude dropped for two months. It was proven to be nothing only short time later when China bought a new batch again. What I am trying to say is that not only the western media is jumpy, so are some Chinese "journalists" who only want to attract click which is linked to their payment.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Egypt recently announced they are buying wheat from India, I knew as soon as I heard it that there was no way India was going to be able to fulfil that promise.

With all that is happening in India, i don’t think it can feed itself. China will have to export grain to India to relive an upcoming famine, not that they will be grateful.

It is an excellent move to start exporting grain, it’s very hard to sanction a country that provides food to you or your friends.

Of course, China will always hold it own rice bowl firmly, but their grain production is increasing quite rapidly due to newly allowed genetic modifications to certain crops as well as their huge investments in high quality farmland and online/automated farming technologies, fertilizer production, and even the enticing possibility of vat grown starch which can free up huge tracts of grazing land for more high quality planting.

Couple this with massive, long term contracted, imports from countries like USA, Russia and Ukraine which uses up a lot of those countries available capacity to export, along with new overland routes for food imports from ASEAN and already achieved emergency food storage system and we see that China may be the country that is best positioned to increase food/grain exports over the short term.

China could soon be exporting food to those in desperate need like they do vaccines today, while America will only be able to barely feed itself while blaming China for stealing all their food production, which they are now using to garner good will around the world.
Egypt is always a major buyer of Chinese grains. Due to the recent event, Egypt is in trouble, therefor I believe China's "sudden increase of export" includes old partners increased demand such as Egypt.

Regarding India and the rest, let's not go too far in speculation. In both personal and national conduct, the priority always goes like, Self>Friend>Old customer>New customer>∞>one who troubles me.

The word "have to" should have been "maybe IF".
 
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