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Sardaukar20

Junior Member
Registered Member
I am hoping and praying that it'll never come to the need to use force at all. As much as I detest Taiwanese government it's the civilians that will bear the brunt of the fighting not to mention the military folks in Taiwan that'll have to fight since that's their duty as military people.
I too hope that there would be no hot war over Taiwan. If the DPP and the US really goes full ahead to declare Taiwanese independence. The best way for China to turn the tables on them us to organize with local collaborators, a military coup to oust the DPP government. For this to happen, the CPC, KMT, and sympathizers in Taiwan need to be talking behind the scenes. I'm cautiously optimistic that that is quite feasible, because all parties but the DPP ultimately don't want a hot war.

Taiwan is still the Republic of China (ROC). It was already written in the constitution of the ROC that Taiwan is China. If the DPP attempts to declare Taiwanese independence, there would be a constitutional crisis. Then the military of the ROC could have the obligation to 'defend' ROC territorial integrity by declaring the DPP unconstitutional and removing them from power. After that, the military junta could temporarily impose martial law to clean up the Taiwanese independence movement and then hold new elections. Then Taiwan can restore the status quo for the time being. It would avoid both a hot war with the PRC, and forced annexation by the PRC. This is the best outcome that I could think of for the near future. There would be political turmoil off course, but it is so much better than war and bloodshed.

Plus there is the added bonus of totally upending US plans to get China into a hot war over Taiwan. I am sure the American warmongers won't see this coming. Of course Uncle Sam will be incensed if that happens. But any US action to punish the ROC for this 'treachery' is going to worsen the US's standing in the region and only drive Taiwan closer to China.
 

Overbom

Senior Member
Registered Member

ChongqingHotPot92

Junior Member
Registered Member
It looks like China will take the right actions soon. They are giving China the reasons to do it.
Let's see if Taiwan will participate in the December 2nd Democracy Summit as a nation state. If so, that could breach the 2005 Anti-Secession Law and potentially risk triggering a PRC military response.
 

ChongqingHotPot92

Junior Member
Registered Member
salami-slicing is double edge sword, china needs to be slicing back, in its own way, that hurt US just as much if not more long term ....

US is playing with fire, going all in right now betting its chips before house of cards collapse....

This is essentially an open declaration of war, as if the things that it inflicted on China the last three years, both covert and overt, werent enough...

Hard to believe a few years ago many people felt 300 nukes was enough deterrence, thats but a rounding error... for all intents and purposes if China really only had 300, im pretty sure it would have already gotten native american'd by now
One option for China is to cease implementing all existing economic sanctions on North Korea, allowing the latter to grow rich through export to China (pretty sure NK's juche fiber clothing, beer, seafood, and minerals will have markets in China), while retaining its nukes. In other words, solidify Sino-DPRK alliance from alliance on paper to a de facto one. However, since the ruling Kim family is extremely sensitive to foreign interference in DPRK's domestic politics, always deal with Kim and his sister personally on major policy decisions. In general, China needs allies, too, and the relationship with the DPRK can be fixed if Xi could win back Kim's trust. Opening China's market to the DPRK would be a major sign of goodwill and economic assistance.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Senior Member
Registered Member
Thought provoking discussions on Sino-U.S. Rivalry that involves 2 distinguished U.S. Military men in Douglas MacGregor and Lawrence Wilkerson paired with two academics who more or less have strong opinions on their western values system that must be maintained and exported. Apologies if this is posted on a wrong topic forum but due to the increasing provocative moves from the current incumbent government, it'll be irresponsible for anyone here not to absorb as much insights as one can get coming from the current preeminent power of the world being worried about the rising power that's China. It's an honest and frank discussion one that's seldom read, seen, or heard in the west in today's increasingly hostile opinions on everything that's related to China.

 

texx1

Junior Member
If spending almost $5 Billion U.S.D. on a per annual basis on list of African countries to maintain/buy the current status quo isn't that still relatively cheaper when compared to the potential drawback of China’s potential Liberation of the island of Taiwan? The potential loss of investments and the economic sanctions that'll come for China will definitely cost more than $5 Billion so am not entirely convinced that the pros of Taiwanese Liberation isn't going to cause setback for China long term.

If my logic is in error please explain why. Thanks.
30 billion rmb is just the current figure. Bribing could never be maintained in the long run. In time other countries, sensing weakness, would keep asking for more every year which means an ever increasing amount of resources are being redirected from more productive means. It is similar to how western nations are now increasingly use salami slicing tactics, going from sending politicians to sending uniformed soldiers to openly calling for UN participation.

Since the west sanctioned China over its crackdown of HK's secession movement and the passage of national security law in its own territory, there is no good reason and naive to assume the west would not sanction china over Taiwan's return even if it's peaceful. With Taiwan's reverse sinicization effort; it presents a much more complicated governance problem than HK and will require similar polices. In other words, the west would still sanction china.

Besides, not everything is about monetary cost. IMO Taiwan would only entertain a peaceful return under its own terms which probably means concessions that the current CCP would never politically agree in the first place such as senior political power sharing, retaining control of its arm forces, large transfer payments without taxation and most definitely superior citizenship status over mainlanders.

Domestically, it's also a hard sell to Chinese citizens since 600 millions of them only make about 1000 yuan per month. China is still a developing country that can't really afford to spend willy-nilly. There are plenty of sensitive domestic priorities that could benefit from more investments such childcare support, subsidies for public housing.

With the advent of social media and increasing foreign travel, plenty of Chinese are acutely aware of Taiwan's quasi independence and its bellicose behaviors. Paying large amount to insignificant nations every year for the facade of one-china is rightly seen by many, especially younger generations as a national shame and inconsistent with the public narrative of Chinese rise. It's no surprise the call for military solution over Taiwan has dramatically increased in recent years as well as the open mocking of mainland's Taiwan relation office by Chinese citizens.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
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I saw Ian Bremmer being interviewed yesterday claiming that China is watching what's happening in the US in regards to accusations against Facebook worrying that might happen in China regarding social media. No, China already knew hence why China banned US social media companies in China long ago. Of course Americans are blinded by that fact because they think China blocking US social media companies was about stifling US competition and preventing Chinese from accessing freedom. Yeah that kind of "freedom" is why they're talking about regulating US social media companies. What they hate happening in the US now is what they want happening in China. They want social disorder and people hating one another in China in order to weaken China overall. It doesn't hurt the US so they're for it happening in China. You don't think they want to report fake news that causes social unrest to the Chinese? They won't admit that Beijing saw this long before they got an inkling because they don't what to admit anyone else has better insight than they do hence why Ian Bremmer frames it that China is following the US. They don't bother thinking about the consequences. That's why the US is vulnerable to karma biting them back in ass which is what we're seeing happening right now.
 

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