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james smith esq

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For the original article as Agnus said. Germany wants a port visit to Shanghai. Looks like its meant to be a performative exercise for the US. Should be fine for a port visit, its a single frigate.
Then, they should go to Tsingtao for some beer and bring some back for Deino!

Btw, I looooooooooves me sum Tsingtao brand beer!
 

Maula Jatt

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Pakistan Interior Minister Tuesday addressed a press conference that India and Israel were behind the ongoing hybrid war against Pakistan, Dasu incident was an attempt to create misunderstandings between Pakistan and China.

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He's the former Interior Minister. I don't think we should immediately jump to conclusion, still need to wait for official word from Pakistan government.

Start from 27 till the end if one wants to understand the issue

I think this is probably one of the best interviews to understand Pakistani perspective on this situation

(A bit of Background on this guy, he ended the Taliban insurgency in Pakistani territory, so he is as reliable a source on this issue imo)

(summary but still watch it to understand the issue)

- He said yes India is involved in supporting insurgencies in Pakistan, that's out of the question as he experienced it himself during the campaign

- To give China serious damage as far as its ambitions are concerned, destabilizing Pakistan and ending CPEC is very important

by calling Pak areas disputed (it was disputed but historically India never made a fuss out of it and largely accepted the status quo because it was a peaceful region compared to Kashmir), supporting and popping up insurgencies, buying out and creating ideologies to polarize society at large

- names recent incidents of terrorism against China in the country

- Said the Bus incident was a lost opportunity to talk about our side of the story of Indo-US nexus attacking China-Pak interests, Pak is wrongly being apologetic about it and trying to turn it into an accident (I believe they fear lost investment opportunity)

- You cannot decouple US- Indo interests when it comes to CPEC

- CPEC connects 2/3 of the world, with BRI and CPEC as the flagship represents a connection with major chunk of the world economy and will easily propel China into THE most dominant economic powerhouse as far as financial muscle is concerned

- Will US take it laying down? of course not, US will respond

There is no alternative to CPEC route except for Malacca straits itself, CPEC is essential for China if BRI is to succeed, Gwadar has (naturally) potential to accept more Cargo than all of Indian ports combined, can take more than 80 million tons of cargo

- If it becomes as expected/projected in 2030 than all of transshipment trade of the region will be affected which in turn will effect the status quo so no one in the region likes it

- This is a huge problem for Pakistan and to stop the country from becoming a war zone

Pak should be working overtime, bend over backwards to rope in the Americans to come in as a competitor, give them another port, make another project with them so they can compete with the CPEC as a parallel

2 solutions

- Sell them on the minerals of Afghanistan (US is trying to lay of the Chinese rare earths and Afghanistan has a huge deposit of em), so US remains relevant in the region and you don't start fighting a massive proxy war with a superpower and a regional powerhouse in India both trying to land a knockout punch

- China wont be receptive but this is the only answer for a country our size, other answer is try to take the conflict (which is difficult)

to SCS or east of Pakistan but it shouldn't remain in Pak


If it remains in Pakistani territory and develops further, He is convinced doesn't matter if China wins or US wins, Pakistan will be devasted and may not survive as a country like it is in its current form



This CPEC has attracted trouble for Pakistan unfortunately and this will probably get worst, proxy wars are the shittiest wars that can take place in a country, you cant get a cease fire...
 
Last edited:

j17wang

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Registered Member
Start from 27 till the end if one wants to understand the issue

I think this is probably one of the best interviews to understand Pakistani perspective on this situation

(A bit of Background on this guy, he ended the Taliban insurgency in Pakistani territory, so he is as reliable a source on this issue imo)

(summary but still watch it to understand the issue)

- He said yes India is involved in supporting insurgencies in Pakistan, that's out of the question as he experienced it himself during the campaign

- To give China serious damage as far as its ambitions are concerned, destabilizing Pakistan and ending CPEC is very important

by calling Pak areas disputed (it was disputed but historically India never made a fuss out of it and largely accepted the status quo because it was a peaceful region compared to Kashmir), supporting and popping up insurgencies, buying out and creating ideologies to polarize society at large

- names recent incidents of terrorism against China in the country

- Said the Bus incident was a lost opportunity to talk about our side of the story of Indo-US nexus attacking China-Pak interests, Pak is wrongly being apologetic about it and trying to turn it into an accident (I believe they fear lost investment opportunity)

- You cannot decouple US- Indo interests when it comes to CPEC

- CPEC connects 2/3 of the world, with BRI and CPEC as the flagship represents a connection with major chunk of the world economy and will easily propel China into THE most dominant economic powerhouse as far as financial muscle is concerned

- Will US take it laying down? of course not, US will respond

There is no alternative to CPEC route except for Malacca straits itself, CPEC is essential for China if BRI is to succeed, Gwadar has (naturally) potential to accept more Cargo than all of Indian ports combined, can take more than 80 million tons of cargo

- If it becomes as expected/projected in 2030 than all of transshipment trade of the region will be affected which in turn will effect the status quo so no one in the region likes it

- This is a huge problem for Pakistan and to stop the country from becoming a war zone

Pak should be working overtime, bend over backwards to rope in the Americans to come in as a competitor, give them another port, make another project with them so they can compete with the CPEC as a parallel

2 solutions

- Sell them on the minerals of Afghanistan (US is trying to lay of the Chinese rare earths and Afghanistan has a huge deposit of em), so US remains relevant in the region and you don't start fighting a massive proxy war with a superpower and a regional powerhouse in India both trying to land a knockout punch

- China wont be receptive but this is the only answer for a country our size, other answer is try to take the conflict (which is difficult)

to SCS or east of Pakistan but it shouldn't remain in Pak

If it remains in Pakistani territory and develops further, He is convinced doesn't matter if China wins or US wins, Pakistan will be devasted and may not survive as a country like it is in its current form


This CPEC has attracted trouble for Pakistan unfortunately and this will probably get worst, proxy wars are the shittiest wars that can take place in a country, you cant get a cease fire...

US wants to develop its relationship with India, however India under Modi wants nothing but the dissolution and re-population of Pakistan to fullfill some hindutva dream. Even Modi's India, while eyeing tibet, doesn't have any dreams for Shanghai or Beijing no matter how fanciful. On the other hand, Karachi, Lahore, Peshwar, Islamabad, are what Indian right-wingers now believe are occupied Indian territory.

Its really sad actually, 1-2 years ago there could have been real peace between India and Pakistan, thats no longer the case. So no, Pakistan will stick to CPEC which does offer a real chance at reaching chinese levels of income/industrialization per capita. And yes, at worse, Pakistan could end up as a proxy battleground as India sponsors endless levels of terrorism. But even then, its better to live in a country that is still independent and suffering rather than the hellhole being subject to Kashmiri occupied people.

No real Pakistani citizen believes that India/US could provide a better alternative to CPEC.

Another thing I dont understand in your post is why the US would develop a port in Pakistan. How would that help the US trade or secure any supply lines to anywhere?
 

solarz

Brigadier
Start from 27 till the end if one wants to understand the issue

I think this is probably one of the best interviews to understand Pakistani perspective on this situation

(A bit of Background on this guy, he ended the Taliban insurgency in Pakistani territory, so he is as reliable a source on this issue imo)

(summary but still watch it to understand the issue)

- He said yes India is involved in supporting insurgencies in Pakistan, that's out of the question as he experienced it himself during the campaign

- To give China serious damage as far as its ambitions are concerned, destabilizing Pakistan and ending CPEC is very important

by calling Pak areas disputed (it was disputed but historically India never made a fuss out of it and largely accepted the status quo because it was a peaceful region compared to Kashmir), supporting and popping up insurgencies, buying out and creating ideologies to polarize society at large

- names recent incidents of terrorism against China in the country

- Said the Bus incident was a lost opportunity to talk about our side of the story of Indo-US nexus attacking China-Pak interests, Pak is wrongly being apologetic about it and trying to turn it into an accident (I believe they fear lost investment opportunity)

- You cannot decouple US- Indo interests when it comes to CPEC

- CPEC connects 2/3 of the world, with BRI and CPEC as the flagship represents a connection with major chunk of the world economy and will easily propel China into THE most dominant economic powerhouse as far as financial muscle is concerned

- Will US take it laying down? of course not, US will respond

There is no alternative to CPEC route except for Malacca straits itself, CPEC is essential for China if BRI is to succeed, Gwadar has (naturally) potential to accept more Cargo than all of Indian ports combined, can take more than 80 million tons of cargo

- If it becomes as expected/projected in 2030 than all of transshipment trade of the region will be affected which in turn will effect the status quo so no one in the region likes it

- This is a huge problem for Pakistan and to stop the country from becoming a war zone

Pak should be working overtime, bend over backwards to rope in the Americans to come in as a competitor, give them another port, make another project with them so they can compete with the CPEC as a parallel

2 solutions

- Sell them on the minerals of Afghanistan (US is trying to lay of the Chinese rare earths and Afghanistan has a huge deposit of em), so US remains relevant in the region and you don't start fighting a massive proxy war with a superpower and a regional powerhouse in India both trying to land a knockout punch

- China wont be receptive but this is the only answer for a country our size, other answer is try to take the conflict (which is difficult)

to SCS or east of Pakistan but it shouldn't remain in Pak


If it remains in Pakistani territory and develops further, He is convinced doesn't matter if China wins or US wins, Pakistan will be devasted and may not survive as a country like it is in its current form



This CPEC has attracted trouble for Pakistan unfortunately and this will probably get worst, proxy wars are the shittiest wars that can take place in a country, you cant get a cease fire...

That's quite a bit of wishful thinking. Why would the Americans bother competing with China in Pakistan when they already control the Malacca Straits?

He's got the cause and effect backwards. Gwadar is advantageous to China because it allows China to bypass the US chokehold on Malacca Straits. Offering a similar port to the Americans do nothing for American interests.

He's also got the completely wrong conclusion. Pakistan is already in the center of China-US conflict, simply by virtue of its entanglement with India and Afghanistan. The only way for Pakistan to NOT become a ground for proxy war is to stick to China like glue.

ONLY China can guarantee stability for Pakistan!
 

Maula Jatt

Junior Member
Registered Member
US wants to develop its relationship with India, however India under Modi wants nothing but the dissolution and re-population of Pakistan to fullfill some hindutva dream. Even Modi's India, while eyeing tibet, doesn't have any dreams for Shanghai or Beijing no matter how fanciful. On the other hand, Karachi, Lahore, Peshwar, Islamabad, are what Indian right-wingers now believe are occupied Indian territory.

Its really sad actually, 1-2 years ago there could have been real peace between India and Pakistan, thats no longer the case. So no, Pakistan will stick to CPEC which does offer a real chance at reaching chinese levels of income/industrialization per capita. And yes, at worse, Pakistan could end up as a proxy battleground as India sponsors endless levels of terrorism. But even then, its better to live in a country that is still independent and suffering rather than the hellhole being subject to Kashmiri occupied people.

No real Pakistani citizen believes that India/US could provide a better alternative to CPEC.

Another thing I dont understand in your post is why the US would develop a port in Pakistan. How would that help the US trade or secure any supply lines to anywhere?
Its a summary of what the general is talking about in the interview,

(don't think he is suggesting them to provide a better alternative, he wants Pakistan to somehow calm the US down, make em feel secured/involved in the region so they don't go too deep into the proxy war)

- His point I believe is to keep the US involved in the country and try to find a balance between the two countries (diplomatically)

( Now this is my point on how Pakistan can involve US in the country or if I am the diplomat how will I pitch it to US)

Pak will use its influence to ask the Taliban to protect and allow the US mining companies to mine the rare earths in the country and use Pakistani ports to ship em, so they can reduce the dependency of the Western markets on China

I don't think developing is the issue here, give them an INCENTIVE in a stable Pakistan so they lay off the proxy war meanwhile keep chipping away with CPEC
 

Maula Jatt

Junior Member
Registered Member
That's quite a bit of wishful thinking. Why would the Americans bother competing with China in Pakistan when they already control the Malacca Straits?

He's got the cause and effect backwards. Gwadar is advantageous to China because it allows China to bypass the US chokehold on Malacca Straits. Offering a similar port to the Americans do nothing for American interests.

He's also got the completely wrong conclusion. Pakistan is already in the center of China-US conflict, simply by virtue of its entanglement with India and Afghanistan. The only way for Pakistan to NOT become a ground for proxy war is to stick to China like glue.

ONLY China can guarantee stability for Pakistan!
Bombs are taking place in the country but not enough drones, MRAPs, need cameras in the cities, need better attack choppers, need IT intelligence support, need latest border petrol equipment's

Still don't have em,

And this time attacks aren't taking place against civilians its mostly targeted at security personnel's and Chinese,
Would you as a Chinese worker/engineer/investor want to come in to the country when you are THE target?- No


All our resources are going towards countering India cause if we don't, India would start bombing Pak at will (and I highly doubt anyone in world would stop India from doing that)

You cant fight proxy while you also have a genuine conventional threat against a much larger force,

Its a very tough ask
 

Temstar

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I have noticed this movement for about a week now. It seems US is putting the Taiwan card aside for now (cue weeping and gnashing of teeth from DPP) and switching to playing the SEA card. I think first of all this is a terrible plan because ASEAN nations enjoy close and prosperous economic relationship with China, what with ASEAN being China's largest trading partner. And also unlike Taiwan ASEAN nations are also quite cunning and expert at flip-flopping and fence sitting (the correct posture to take in today's world in my opinion).

But suppose we do a vote count, China at the moment has pretty firm support from Laos and Cambodia, while at this time Philippines seems to be in the US camp (but knowing Duterte, who knows how long that will last). The correct move for US to do would be to support Burmese junta and try to get them on side so there's a 2-2 split. But alas Blinken is doing something stupid again and trying to get ASEAN to pressure Myanmar. Nevermind that in the early days of the coup the junta actually sent out feelers to send message to US saying they did the coup because they fear Aung San Suu Kyi was getting too close to China and they didn't want Myanmar to be a Chinese puppet, and then Biden shot them right down. Now Blinken is further pissing off the junta while at the same time annoying ASEAN.

It seems the Americans just cannot grasp the concept of letting go of some small interest in order to trade for something bigger.
 

j17wang

Senior Member
Registered Member
Bombs are taking place in the country but not enough drones, MRAPs, need cameras in the cities, need better attack choppers, need IT intelligence support, need latest border petrol equipment's

Still don't have em,

And this time attacks aren't taking place against civilians its mostly targeted at security personnel's and Chinese,
Would you as a Chinese worker/engineer/investor want to come in to the country when you are THE target?- No

All our resources are going towards countering India cause if we don't, India would start bombing Pak at will (and I highly doubt anyone in world would stop India from doing that)

You cant fight proxy while you also have a genuine conventional threat against a much larger force,

Its a very tough ask

Chinese business people in general have higher risk tolerances than the west, otherwise would have never made inroads into africa or latin america. Chinese people have "eaten bitterness" throughout the 20th century, and we would continue investing in countries provided there is the opportunity. If you are from the US, I am sure you know the work ethic of the chinese (not necessarily all chinese, but you know what I am saying).

China will never permit India to bomb pakistan at will. As chinese foreign policy has articulated clearly "Pakistan is China's Israel, to be supported at all costs." Maybe even two years ago, China would have been more balanced in its approach of Pakistan vs India as China still had access to a much larger consumer market with India. Its clear that is gone now so China would have less restraint towards an unconditional defense of Pakistan. There is very little for china to lose now in its relation with India compared to before.

greatness is always tough, and I am sure Pakistan can prevail. Nobody 30 years ago would ever have thought Pakistan would one day possess one of the largest nuclear weapon arsenals in the world (comparable in size to India and China, if not in weapon delivery systems).
 

Agnus

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I have noticed this movement for about a week now. It seems US is putting the Taiwan card aside for now (cue weeping and gnashing of teeth from DPP) and switching to playing the SEA card. I think first of all this is a terrible plan because ASEAN nations enjoy close and prosperous economic relationship with China, what with ASEAN being China's largest trading partner. And also unlike Taiwan ASEAN nations are also quite cunning and expert at flip-flopping and fence sitting (the correct posture to take in today's world in my opinion).

But suppose we do a vote count, China at the moment has pretty firm support from Laos and Cambodia, while at this time Philippines seems to be in the US camp (but knowing Duterte, who knows how long that will last). The correct move for US to do would be to support Burmese junta and try to get them on side so there's a 2-2 split. But alas Blinken is doing something stupid again and trying to get ASEAN to pressure Myanmar. Nevermind that in the early days of the coup the junta actually sent out feelers to send message to US saying they did the coup because they fear Aung San Suu Kyi was getting too close to China and they didn't want Myanmar to be a Chinese puppet, and then Biden shot them right down. Now Blinken is further pissing off the junta while at the same time annoying ASEAN.

It seems the Americans just cannot grasp the concept of letting go of some small interest in order to trade for something bigger.
Isn't Wang Yi gonna do a meeting as well in the same time?
I highly doubt the US will get much or anything if ASEAN is meeting with both great powers.

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siegecrossbow

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I have noticed this movement for about a week now. It seems US is putting the Taiwan card aside for now (cue weeping and gnashing of teeth from DPP) and switching to playing the SEA card. I think first of all this is a terrible plan because ASEAN nations enjoy close and prosperous economic relationship with China, what with ASEAN being China's largest trading partner. And also unlike Taiwan ASEAN nations are also quite cunning and expert at flip-flopping and fence sitting (the correct posture to take in today's world in my opinion).

But suppose we do a vote count, China at the moment has pretty firm support from Laos and Cambodia, while at this time Philippines seems to be in the US camp (but knowing Duterte, who knows how long that will last). The correct move for US to do would be to support Burmese junta and try to get them on side so there's a 2-2 split. But alas Blinken is doing something stupid again and trying to get ASEAN to pressure Myanmar. Nevermind that in the early days of the coup the junta actually sent out feelers to send message to US saying they did the coup because they fear Aung San Suu Kyi was getting too close to China and they didn't want Myanmar to be a Chinese puppet, and then Biden shot them right down. Now Blinken is further pissing off the junta while at the same time annoying ASEAN.

It seems the Americans just cannot grasp the concept of letting go of some small interest in order to trade for something bigger.

No one in the Biden admin displays strategic thinking.
 
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