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KampfAlwin

Junior Member
Registered Member
Japan troops won’t get involved if China invades Taiwan, PM Yoshihide Suga says

SCMP - 21 Apr, 2021

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has emphasised that, despite a reference to Taiwan in a joint statement released after his recent meeting with US President Joe Biden, there is no possibility of Japanese forces being committed to any military contingency surrounding Taiwan.

In response to a question from an opposition politician in the Diet on Tuesday about the details of Japan’s commitment to Taiwan, Suga replied that the statement “does not presuppose military involvement at all”.

Analysts say Japan’s constitution would block the military from taking part in combat in the event China attempted to take Taiwan by force, although Japan could provide a range of logistical and rear-echelon support to the United States.

The wording of the statement – the first document signed by the Japanese and US leaders to refer to Taiwan SINCE DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS between Tokyo and Beijing were normalised in 1972 – had been CLOSELY SCRUTINISED.

Biden and Suga called for “peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait”, the first reference to Taiwan – which Beijing claims as its territory – in a joint statement IN MORE THAN 50 YEARS. They also said they would counter China’s “intimidation” in the Asia-Pacific region.

China accused Japan and the US of sowing division, and said the two countries were inciting “group confrontation”. On the weekend, the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theatre Command, which oversees the Taiwan Strait, deployed dozens of H-6K STRATEGIC BOMBERS in a NINE-HOUR LIVE-FIRE DRILL, according to state television.

Analysts said Suga’s latest comments to the Diet was Tokyo’s way of DRAWING A LINE under suggestions that the government could use a different interpretation of the constitution to give it freer reign to dispatch the military.

Ben Ascione, an assistant professor of international relations at Tokyo’s Waseda University, said Suga was IN A DIFFICULT POSITION over Taiwan.

“If he were to say nothing at all, then that could have had a negative effect on the Japan-US security alliance, but at the same time, Suga needed to make it clear to his domestic audience that Japan would not go to war over Taiwan,” he said.

Ascione said there were “many different scenarios” that could emerge surrounding Taiwan in the coming months and years, but the extent of Japanese involvement during an armed clash over the island was very likely to be limited to rear-area support and maintaining the present status quo under the constitution.

“I think a LOT OF FUSS has been made over the mention of Taiwan in the US-Japan joint statement and that Suga really needed to get out in front of that,” he said, pointing out that while Biden might have been hoping for a stronger expression of support from the Japanese leader in their first face-to-face meeting, Tokyo had insisted on “boilerplate language” that still emphasised peace and stability.

“I do not think we can expect Japan to do more than making incremental change for now,” Ascione said.

Yuko Ito, a professor of international relations at Asia University, agreed that Suga’s hands were presently tied by Japan’s war-renouncing constitution, which only permits the military to be deployed to defend the nation and its allies. But she added that there was a growing sense of concern in some quarters that Tokyo was being “too naive”.

“Taking part in military activities involving Taiwan would not be permitted under the constitution, but there are clearly deepening tensions in the region and it would already be too late if we only started a discussion on revising the constitution after China has attacked Taiwan,” Ito said.

“The majority of Japanese people are still against the use of the nation’s military power, so the debate on the constitution cannot take place,” she said.

“BUT THEY ALSO DO NOT REALISE ... that the Japanese military are carrying out a LOT OF JOINT EXERCISES with the US in areas VERY CLOSE to Taiwan as a message to China.

“If we have no discussions on changing or reinterpreting the constitution now and that debate can only take place after an invasion, then it is too late,” she said.

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Note: There is a limit of number of articles one can read freely at the SCMP.
Saw this article on Reddit and I want to share a commenter’s analysis of this which I feel is quite eye opening. What do you guys think?

From user dirtyid:
“Long term PRC will engineer TW reunion eventually. It's an unsettled / unfinished Chinese civil war propagated by US post WW2 that has to end at some point. PRC politics compels it under CCP control and likely sooner if PRC ever decides to democratize (PRC nationalists are scarier than CCP). Understandably TW politics will respond in turn. But tech war gives TW a lot of negotiating power via TSMC silicon shield/lance. This is unplanned happenstance that is being rapidly corrected US/EU/PRC all want domestic semi. Equation is: TW decides when to fight, US decides whether to fight, and PRC decides how long to fight. TSMC means at least short term, US is pressured to fight. Hence all the bellicose US/PRC rhetoric, but ultimately neither US or China wants TW to have this much power.

Sidebar, another reason why JP & S.Korea are incentivized not to fight for TW. TSMC is big, but these 3 + PRC are ~75% of global wafer production and semi supply chains. TSMC blows up, tech resets to 2010 for a few years. East Asian semi blows up and we're back in the 90s for possibly decades. Also it's not a coincidence US weapon sales to TW has delivery dates around when TSMC opens Arizona fab(s).

IMO once semi conundrum ends in 10-20 years, more reunion options open up and more even force balance between US/PRC make war more unlikely. Of course hope is it's peaceful, and if not, with as little violence as possible. people should stop thinking about 1C2S or invasion. The former is not dead, 20 years long time for major political shifts for peaceful options under some other scheme like suzerainty i.e. TW keeps everything, including "provincial" military/security forces, but PRC decides foreign policy, and have a few military bases on east coast. The latter need not be invasion, which is outdated thinking from when PRC military in 90s had barely WW2 capabilities + western fascination with DDay. Think PRC blockade / quarantine of TW, control everything that goes in and out of island. Aka PRC siege TW. TW not food/energy secure. TW doesn't have the benefit of land borders to smuggle supplies like Yemen while also 5% the size of Yemen located under thrones throw from PRC military theatres. PRC siege while pressure domestic TW politics for capitulation, zero need for boots on the ground or project amphib force build up. BTW PRC can do this right now if it wasn't for US.

Those familiar with PRC/ROC history will see similarity in ROC closure policy (关闭政策) where ROC navy declared "closure" of ALL PRC ports and attempted to control PRC shipping between 1949 and 1979. Suspended after 30 years and not abolished until early 90s after ROC seized 140+ ships from Germany UK, Japan, Netherlands, Poland USSR against international standing and causing reputation harm. Along with ROC based U2s that conducted surveillance over mainland airspace for US from 60s-70s. Actual airspace, not ADIZ. So yeah, this isn't far fetched scenario, this is history rhyming.

Lastly TW gets a say too, forget memes about TW getting nukes or blowing up Three Gorges. There's already a handful of PRC coastal nuclear plants existing TW missiles can reach and fuckload more being built. Would be TW essentially signing suicide note, but options there.”
 

windsclouds2030

Senior Member
Registered Member
@windsclouds2030 so bro where is the statement about not selling chip equipment to China? even dogs have brain , the Japanese are not stupid they need the US, YES!!! and they are a prideful nation, YES!!! but they need to trade to survive being an island nation, and I think after the visit and seeing Biden maybe there is a change of heart?
Sorry I don't follow that part. Have no idea. No idea on how serious or how real that part... whether it's something actionable from JPN side or the PM just talked talked only to please his host, provided he really said that.

I think it is five articles per month.
Yes, it may be right, I just forget the number of articles, so it causes some difficulty to access the given scmp links once limit is achieved. the translate.google trick won't do there.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Sorry I don't follow that part. Have no idea. No idea on how serious or how real that part... whether it's something actionable from JPN side or the PM just talked talked only to please his host, provided he really said that.


Yes, it may be right, I just forget the number of articles, so it causes some difficulty to access the given scmp links once limit is achieved. the translate.google trick won't do there.
@windsclouds2030 no bro its a rhetorical question, it's not meant to embarrass you...LOL sorry for putting you in a tight spot. ;)
 

Mr T

Senior Member
I dont know how the CPC internal politics work or discussed but I am sure that it not by the media.

Maybe he has lost his position inside the party and has been locked out of the policy circles?
No, there would have been reporting on that if it had been the case. You can't purge someone like Wen Jiabao without people noticing. If he's been locked out of policy discussions it's a sign that Xi isn't tolerating dissenting views from anyone.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
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I think this is a shame. Wen was not an outspoken reformist/liberal and rarely did or said anything that contradicted the Party's wider positions. Where he sought to push for a change of direction it was reasonable and subtle, or would have been behind closed doors.

If even a former Prime Minister cannot be allowed to write something that could be interpreted as criticism of the Standing Committee/Politburo, how can there be any debate within the Party?
There is a debate within the party but not done in a public way or
No, there would have been reporting on that if it had been the case. You can't purge someone like Wen Jiabao without people noticing. If he's been locked out of policy discussions it's a sign that Xi isn't tolerating dissenting views from anyone.
You really like to project your own biased interpretation on Chinese politics and casting aspersion on someone (Xi Jinping) you have no clue at all. Western political party exercise just as much "stifling" of dissent if someone from whatever political party he or she belongs doesn't toe the party line/platform etc. they get booted off from their caucuses, censured etc. and that's from a so called DEMOCRACY.

China or the CPC never claimed to be the bastion of freedom or democracy so am quite baffled as to why you seem to keep on harping your own views (western) unto their polity and for what purpose? The country has made its progress and achievements under the single party polity of the CPC and it can't be argued that China has never achieved this level of economic development in its entire history not to mention the level of success is without peer. So if democracy loving people like you keeps arguing about its merit then one ought to look into how the largest democracy in the world is doing right now, it ain't pretty nor funny; it's quite sad actually.
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
There is a debate within the party but not done in a public way or

You really like to project your own biased interpretation on Chinese politics and casting aspersion on someone (Xi Jinping) you have no clue at all. Western political party exercise just as much "stifling" of dissent if someone from whatever political party he or she belongs doesn't toe the party line/platform etc. they get booted off from their caucuses, censured etc. and that's from a so called DEMOCRACY.

China or the CPC never claimed to be the bastion of freedom or democracy so am quite baffled as to why you seem to keep on harping your own views (western) unto their polity and for what purpose? The country has made its progress and achievements under the single party polity of the CPC and it can't be argued that China has never achieved this level of economic development in its entire history not to mention the level of success is without peer. So if democracy loving people like you keeps arguing about its merit then one ought to look into how the largest democracy in the world is doing right now, it ain't pretty nor funny; it's quite sad actually.
Please dont be so tough with him. His idol, the biggest democracy in the world, the Supapowe 2020->2021, is now doing extremely well.

Poverty has been eliminated, covid is gone. Its true, Modi himself told me this and I always believe him, after all he is the democratic elected leader. There is no way a person would lie to me if he is in a democracy, right?
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
There is a debate within the party but not done in a public way or

You really like to project your own biased interpretation on Chinese politics and casting aspersion on someone (Xi Jinping) you have no clue at all. Western political party exercise just as much "stifling" of dissent if someone from whatever political party he or she belongs doesn't toe the party line/platform etc. they get booted off from their caucuses, censured etc. and that's from a so called DEMOCRACY.

China or the CPC never claimed to be the bastion of freedom or democracy so am quite baffled as to why you seem to keep on harping your own views (western) unto their polity and for what purpose? The country has made its progress and achievements under the single party polity of the CPC and it can't be argued that China has never achieved this level of economic development in its entire history not to mention the level of success is without peer. So if democracy loving people like you keeps arguing about its merit then one ought to look into how the largest democracy in the world is doing right now, it ain't pretty nor funny; it's quite sad actually.
Because the west is dying from internal problems, political corruptions and corona virus, so these minions needs to criticize China as a form of distractions under the disguise of human rights and God BS.
 
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