AUKUS News, Views, Analysis.

Lethe

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Another Chinese vessel in vague proximity to Australia has prompted another hysterical reaction from local media, government and opposition figures. This time, it wasn't even a naval vessel:

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The opposition leader has slammed the prime minister's response to a Chinese research ship south of Australia, saying he believes the vessel is gathering intelligence and mapping the route of Australia's undersea cables.

The dual purpose vessel the Tan Suo Yi Hao was conducting joint research with New Zealand scientists before travelling west along Australia's southern coastline, outside of Australia's exclusive economic zone.

NZ media have reported the submersibles took Chinese and NZ scientists to the bottom of the Puysegur Trench, 6 kilometres below sea level, on a joint research mission.

Anthony Albanese told reporters in Perth on Monday that he'd "prefer" the ship wasn't in Australian waters, but suggested China hadn't broken international law.

"We live in circumstances where, just as Australia has vessels in the South China Sea and vessels in the Taiwan Strait and a range of areas, this vessel is there," he said.

Mr Albanese said the Australian Defence Force was monitoring the ship as it makes its way back to China.

But Peter Dutton took aim at Mr Albanese's response, accusing him of "weakness" on national security.

"It is unbelievable that the prime minister can't explain to the Australian people what is happening here," he told reporters in Melbourne on Tuesday.

He also slammed Mr Albanese's comparison between Australian naval exercises and Chinese activities in Australian waters as "completely offensive to the men and women of the Royal Australian Navy". "The prime minister needs to explain that statement," he said.

Now, 90% of this is naked political posturing in the lead-up to the election to be held next month, but it is, nonetheless, frankly embarrassing, particularly in light of the following:

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The New Zealand Government says it granted consent for a Chinese research vessel to undertake joint marine research in New Zealand waters – the same one the Australian Prime Minister said he would prefer not to have in his country’s waters.

Niwa (NZ National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research) said researchers from eight different countries were aboard the RV Tan Suo Yi Hao for its two-month research voyage, including two Niwa scientists on each month-long leg.

It was the second joint collaboration with New Zealand exploring the marine biodiversity at ocean depths with its deep-sea submersible, Fen Dou Zhe, Niwa said in a statement.

The expedition went to the Puysegur Trench and lasted 56 days, from January 25 to March 21, involving scientists from China, New Zealand, Malaysia, Denmark, Germany, France, Brazil and India.

In a statement, an NZDF spokesperson said it was aware of the location and movements of the vessel, as NZDF “maintains maritime domain awareness of ships in our region”.

They confirmed the ship had requested to undertake marine scientific research in New Zealand’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade said “following engagement with New Zealand officials and in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, consent was provided”.

“Chinese Research Vessel Tan Suo Yi Hao requested consent to undertake marine scientific research in New Zealand’s EEZ between January to March 2025,” MFAT said in a statement.

More details on the multinational expedition from
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:

The Puysegur mission was the ninth in a series of crewed trench expeditions using the Fendouzhe – the world’s only full-ocean-depth crewed submersible, which has already taken international scientists to the Mariana Trench, the deepest on Earth, and other key trenches.

The research expedition’s chief scientist, Du Mengran, told Chinese state broadcaster CCTV that the team completed 32 dives in the Tasman Sea “despite extremely harsh sea conditions”. Nine of the dives were conducted by international scientists, she added.

According to Du, the researchers observed an array of unusual life forms at depths of more than 6,000 metres – an area known as the hadal zone – and collected both biological and geological samples. “At least half of the collected specimens are likely to be previously unknown hadal species. We also discovered the deepest cold seep ecosystem ever found in the southern hemisphere,” she said.

Marine biologist Daniel Leduc from New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, told CCTV that he hoped the collaboration would continue. “There are lots of other areas in New Zealand and beyond that need to be explored, [like] other trenches and other types of habitats in the deep sea,” he said.

Biochemist Ronnie Glud, from the University of Southern Denmark, praised China’s leadership in developing the Fendouzhe submersible and making it available to the global community. “It’s an astonishing and admirable thing,” he said.

Of course, one might well wonder why Australia wasn't represented on this multinational research expedition. Plausible that Beijing might've blocked it, given that it has likely been planned for some time now. Also plausible that we never even tried to engage, a product of the crackdown on all forms of collaborative academic activity with China these past years, exemplified by the closing down of most
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at Australian universities. Either way, it's clearly our loss.
 

lych470

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News broke out yesterday that Russia has requested to base its air assets in Indonesia, which naturally wasn't received well by the Aussies.

It could be a nothing story as Indonesia has denied the claims, and the original source is from Jane's. Doesn't help that Dutton is putting his foot in his mouth by fabricating a statement from the Indonesian President.
 

lych470

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The authors, all of whom formerly worked for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, call for defence spending to be put on a rapid trajectory to reach 3 per cent of gross domestic product within the next term of government, taking defence spending from the current $56 billion annually to $84 billion a year.

Credit: Matt Golding
“Australia has no credible argument for continuing to devote such a low share of our national wealth to meeting our security needs, particularly as we now plan to not just have the conventionally equipped military that we’ve maintained for decades but now want to add enormously expensive nuclear-powered submarines into our order of battle,” former Defence official Michael Shoebridge writes in the report funded by defence firms, including Boeing.
The authors acknowledge it would be challenging for the defence force to ramp up spending so quickly given it has missed its acquisition spending targets by a total of $26 billion over the past decade, meaning promised capabilities have not been delivered.

The Coalition has been mulling increasing defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP and has promised to spend $3 billion to buy 28 additional F-35 joint strike fighter jets.
Labor has vowed to lift defence spending from the current 2 per cent of GDP to 2.33 per cent by 2033-34.
Shoebridge argues that Australian defence policy has to be fundamentally rethought because “America is no longer signed up to defending the global rules-based order and has little interest in helping its partners and allies to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific”.
Australia should be prepared for the Trump administration to demand payment for joint military and intelligence facilities in Australia – including the secretive Pine Gap intelligence facility – and to seek to renegotiate the AUKUS pact to extract more money from Australia, he writes.

The authors find that 19 of the defence force’s 30 biggest planned acquisitions are set to come from the US, a risky trend given it is becoming a less reliable security partner under Trump.
“Ultimately, we need to hedge our risks and diversify our defence suppliers, in particular local ones,” the authors write.
The report comes as a separate paper by former air force chief Geoff Brown argues that the RAAF should urgently acquire a long-range bomber capable of striking deep into the Indo-Pacific to address a “glaring” capability gap.
 

lych470

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In short:​

The Coalition will spend an extra $21 billion between now and 2030 to reach its goal of lifting overall military spending.
Peter Dutton announced policy details alongside Shadow Defence Minister Andrew Hastie, who has been largely absent from the campaign.

What's next?​

Mr Dutton will seek to shift the campaign focus to defence and national security with two weeks to go until polling day.
 
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