NATO will be withdrawing from Afghanistan on 11th September officially. This was in violation of an agreement, possibly as a final insult to Afghanistan.
A few weeks ago, I wondered how long the NATO regime would last post withdrawal. The closest thing to compare it to was the DRA - the communist government of Afghanistan.
I've read a lot about the DRA in it's short existence. Contrary to what you'll read about from western sources, it was well organised. Even after the Soviet troops withdrew, they had a functioning government, army and civil services. You hear a lot about the failure of USSR in Afghanistan, and it's 100% true there was brutality, corruption and defections. But it lasted from 1989 to 1992 and the biggest cause of its failure was the implosion of the USSR itself.
That brings us on to America's attempt in Afghanistan. How does that benchmark against the Soviet effort? America had 20 years in Afghanistan, spent billions more, the estimated final cost was $1trillion. America has blamed various countries for supporting the insurgency including Pakistan, China, Iran and even Russia! That may or may not be true, but that was nothing compared to the support the Jihadis had against the DRA - all of the above plus America, the UK, Egypt and so on. America also had the support of NATO, whereas the USSR were alone.
So America must have done a better job at ending extremism than the evil communists right? Surely the regime they leave behind will last longer?
Well until a few weeks ago I assumed it would.
Over the past few weeks, the Afghanistan regime has been crumbling FAST. The first warning signs were that many of the warlords of Afghanistan have been fleeing to Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
There's been dozens of videos being posted on social media of mass defections of Afghan soldiers to the Taliban.
These were just a couple showing up on feeds I see, there is lots of these being posted every day. They speak for themselves.
The way things are going it will be surprising to see the regime last until September 11th, let alone 3 years. Americans in Afghanistan must be getting very nervous right now. If the momentum continues growing, I can totally envision a Saigon style withdrawal of Americans from Kabul.
If that happens, I think it would sum up America's adventure perfectly. Unlike in Vietnam, Afghanistan was supposed to be a much easier assignment and yet they've managed to drag it on 20 years and make a bigger mess.
A few weeks ago, I wondered how long the NATO regime would last post withdrawal. The closest thing to compare it to was the DRA - the communist government of Afghanistan.
I've read a lot about the DRA in it's short existence. Contrary to what you'll read about from western sources, it was well organised. Even after the Soviet troops withdrew, they had a functioning government, army and civil services. You hear a lot about the failure of USSR in Afghanistan, and it's 100% true there was brutality, corruption and defections. But it lasted from 1989 to 1992 and the biggest cause of its failure was the implosion of the USSR itself.
That brings us on to America's attempt in Afghanistan. How does that benchmark against the Soviet effort? America had 20 years in Afghanistan, spent billions more, the estimated final cost was $1trillion. America has blamed various countries for supporting the insurgency including Pakistan, China, Iran and even Russia! That may or may not be true, but that was nothing compared to the support the Jihadis had against the DRA - all of the above plus America, the UK, Egypt and so on. America also had the support of NATO, whereas the USSR were alone.
So America must have done a better job at ending extremism than the evil communists right? Surely the regime they leave behind will last longer?
Well until a few weeks ago I assumed it would.
Over the past few weeks, the Afghanistan regime has been crumbling FAST. The first warning signs were that many of the warlords of Afghanistan have been fleeing to Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
There's been dozens of videos being posted on social media of mass defections of Afghan soldiers to the Taliban.
These were just a couple showing up on feeds I see, there is lots of these being posted every day. They speak for themselves.
The way things are going it will be surprising to see the regime last until September 11th, let alone 3 years. Americans in Afghanistan must be getting very nervous right now. If the momentum continues growing, I can totally envision a Saigon style withdrawal of Americans from Kabul.
If that happens, I think it would sum up America's adventure perfectly. Unlike in Vietnam, Afghanistan was supposed to be a much easier assignment and yet they've managed to drag it on 20 years and make a bigger mess.
