South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Brumby

Major
I find that to be a statement that simply wants to overlook certain facts in themselves. Reclaiming and building bases of the magnitude seen and with such speed is no doubt a process planned ahead. But to say when China executed the plans is not a response to others is glossing over that for years post ASEAN Code of Conduct, Vietnam has been playing the island building game. Let's not haggle about the scale vs China, point is the principle, especially if claimants such as Vietnam and the Philippines harped the "spirit of the code" to death in their rhetoric everywhere they went. Then we have the Philippines who have been trying to make examples of Chinese fishermen, even using the naval flagship. There are poachers and errant fishermen from all claimant countries in those waters but you be hard pressed to find any major protesting from the Philippines in regards to other violators. Unlike other claimants, the Philippines did not even field an ambassador in China for a while, much less conduct any tension reducing efforts such as CG-to-CG meets, or navy-to-navy, establish any fishing enforcement escalation protocols, or protocols for unplanned meets on the high seas. The Philippines' rather fumbled response to issues like the Manila hostage situation for HK or the PCG shooting of a Taiwanese fishermen only added fuel to the fire.

Coupled the above with developments in the ECS the last few years - the failure in my opinion of the US to prevent Japan from "nationalizing" Diaoyu/Senkaku which was a match to the powder keg and the even bigger blunder of not strategically being ambiguous on whether the US will step in to defend those islands. That ambiguity was a strength card for US policy in my opinion but that's been spent now. Anyway, so you have the Philippines chest thumping MDT this and MDT that. No dignified strategic planner in China is going to ignore all these developments and not formulate a response that would help strengthen and defend China's interests in the SCS against potential events.

China will pursue what it deems necessary in its national interest. That is not the point of the contention. The issue that I was talking about is whether the massive reclamation is reactive or is simply pursuance of a national interest regardless of the actions of others. I have already explained why I believe is the latter and blaming the actions of the other claimants is simply PR cover.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
China will pursue what it deems necessary in its national interest. That is not the point of the contention. The issue that I was talking about is whether the massive reclamation is reactive or is simply pursuance of a national interest regardless of the actions of others. I have already explained why I believe is the latter and blaming the actions of the other claimants is simply PR cover.
There's little doubt China planned island and military base expansions years ago, and roll them out when conditions were right, nevertheless China's actions prior to recent assertiveness were unusually mild for a large power, and the contrast is even more striking.

>>>>> Flame bait, argumentative portion removed <<<<<
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Blackstone, your phrasing in answer to Brumby about what he may or may not be "pretending" is rhetoric that will only draw fire...and ire.

Keep it respectful and tone it down. Your post has been moderated.

We are not looking for personal arguments or differences to be high lighted here.

Brumby's assertion that the Chinese did not knee-jerk these huge reclamation efforts I find to be accurate. Of course they have been planning it for years...and husbanding and putting in place the resource to do this on their terms.

If you feel someone is violating SD rules of Behavior...let us know. Otherwise keep the discourse civil and respectful, and stay away from discourse that will generate argument and personal attack.

That goes for both sides.

DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERATION.
 

shen

Senior Member
Do you seriously think that China's reclamation program was a knee jerk reaction to the other claimants actions? The reclamation that China undertook was massive and would require years of planning and organisation of resources to put in place. If China wanted cover, it can always find one just like with its reclamation effort. The narrative that we see often in this forum that China was only responding to others is simply echoing China's official statement but devoid of substance.

Given what China is doing on the ground, I don't see why Hanoi and Manila should not pursue their own reclamation effort.

I don't think China's reclamation program is in reaction to other claimants reclamation. For years, other claimants have been reclaiming and building up their positions in areas China regards as its territory. While China is not happy about it, it also didn't react to strongly. Neighbors may squabble, but they still have to live with other, so it is best not to escalate too much. But when one neighbor bring in outside muscles to try to intimidate others, it has cross the line. When Philippines tried to internationalize the dispute, by unilaterally filing claim in international court, drag in non-claimant military super power into the dispute, it crossed the line and provoked the strong Chinese reaction.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
I don't think China's reclamation program is in reaction to other claimants reclamation. For

But when one neighbor bring in outside muscles to try to intimidate others, it has cross the line. When Philippines tried to internationalize the dispute, by unilaterally filing claim in international court, drag in non-claimant military super power into the dispute, it crossed the line and provoked the strong Chinese reaction.
The planning and preparation for what the PRC had done and is doing in the SCS began long before the events you point to. They are not a catalyst, or did not provide a reason for China to do what is has done.

They had already formulated those reasons and was preparing for them...irrespective of those events IMHO.

China has been planning this for years. They simply waited until their resources, economy, and the timing was right to initiate it to the level they have done about 3-4 years ago.

However, before that, we see the PRC carefully and methodically enhancing and improving their positions on each of those same reefs for the past 15-20 years.

What the Philippines is doing is what they can do. we wills see how it plays out.

What Vietnam is doing is what it can do...and I view their efforts lately as more of consolidation.

What China is doing is what it can do...and right now it dwarfs everyone else combined by several orders of magnitude. but they have been carefully preparing for it for years.

In the last 3-4 years China has reclaimed almost 2,000 acres of land on 6-7 different reefs and islands. ALL OTHERS COMBINED, in that same time frame, have reclaimed approximately five acres I believe.

China is simply moving forward with its plans, and as I have said before, there is not much others can do about their specific plans on their specific holdings. The most that could be done would be, as I have indicated, for a consortium of other nations to come together and make the same type of resource available to other claimants so they can also significantly enhance their holdings with similar reclamation.

But there is not the will...or the compelling reason for either those other nations to come together...or for the claimants to get in league with them and do so. So things will proceed as they are.
 

shen

Senior Member
The planning and preparation for what the PRC had done and is doing in the SCS began long before the events you point to. They are not a catalyst, or did not provide a reason for China to do what is has done.

When did China start planning and preparation for the reclamation? You don't know, I don't know. Unless you can provide evidence to backup your claim, I don't think that is a fruitful line of discussion.

What we do know are the facts. In March 2014, Philippines filed for arbitration by international court. In August 2014, China initiated the first large scale reclamation at Fiery Cross Reef. Previous Chinese constructions in the Spratley group are all small scale projects comparable to other claimants and smaller than what Vietnam has been building.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
When did China start planning and preparation for the reclamation? You don't know, I don't know. Unless you can provide evidence to backup your claim.
.
Shen, I work for the US Bureau of Reclamation. I know what kind of planning has to go into these types of projects.

You may not believe it...but I know what I am talking about.

Any such project of the scale being accomplished in the SCS...much less 6 or seven of them at once...requires years of preparation.
 

shen

Senior Member
Shen, I work for the US Bureau of Reclamation. I know what kind of planning has to go into these types of projects.

You may not believe it...but I know what I am talking about.

Any such project of the scale being accomplished in the SCS...much less 6 or seven of them at once...requires years of preparation.

To each his own. Let people make up their own mind. I just present the facts.
 

Brumby

Major
To each his own. Let people make up their own mind. I just present the facts.

I have a better one for you. In 2008 Beijing completed the Olympics. Some smart bureaucrat decided to deploy the surplus construction materials and resources to the SCS. Lol. If you want to find a reason it is always available.
 
Top