South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Blackstone said:

Now that China has ended its dredging and island-manufacturing operations, it's a big mistake for Vietnam or anyone else to start/continue island building, because that gives cover for Beijing to come back with even bigger maritime civil engineering projects. Reality is it ends more on Beijing's terms than on Manila and Hanoi's.

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Looks like they are continuing their reclamation and at a much faster pace than previous years when it went under the radar.

shen said:

Oh, it is getting coverage in China alright. First story of CCTV evening news. They had a retired PLAN admiral refute Harris's points one by one, and on Harris talking about targeting Chinese islands, he basically told Harris to come if he dares.
Really this is not a road we want to go down. As a serving officer, Admiral Harris should have more discipline than talking like this is public.

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I think both Washington and Beijing are just posturing to ratchet up pressure for Xi's September visit to the US. Obama has signaled in words and deed he's willing to try and "contain China," even in face of opposition from friends and allies, and Xi has signaled when US tells China to get back in the genie bottle or else, he will choose 'else.' The confrontation isn't necessarily bad, as long as it produces results both sides could live with. Meanwhile, friction between the two great powers grinds like tectonic plates and sends rumblings everywhere.

joshuatree said:

Looks like they are continuing their reclamation and at a much faster pace than previous years when it went under the radar.

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I'm curious on what happens next, even though I'm fairly sure the outcome wouldn't end well for Vietnam. I say that because Vietnam is feeling its oats on recent symbolic but important support from US and from Japan, and it is probably testing both extend of US support and limits of Chinese patience. If Hanoi continues island(s) expansion and China does nothing, then it will see China checked by US. If China reacts in kind and US takes no real actions to stop it (carping doesn't count), then Vietnam will know how far the Americans will go to help them. As for Japan's recent insertion in SCS disputes, I think it's a self-inflicted Abe-blunder and would likely serve as an object lesson for future Japanese leaders to not start trouble in the SCS when relations are improving in the ECS.

joshuatree said:

Looks like they are continuing their reclamation and at a much faster pace than previous years when it went under the radar.

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Yeah...one small strip at a time.

Blackstone said:

Admiral Harris' bold talk is designed for public consumption, and reality may be 180 degrees apart from words. I say that because I can't think of any reasonable circumstance where US starts WWIII for Philippines over a few rocks in the SCS. The best outcome is Harris gets lots of press in Manila and Tokyo (to pacify the natives), but little press in China (inflame more Chinese nationalism), and the US (worry Americans over conflict with another nuclear power).

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It would in my view not be over some rocks in the SCS and it is against SD rules to discuss it in any case. It is suffice to say that there will be no winners, and that includes China.

Equation said:

Yeah...one small strip at a time.

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Have to assess it in the context of what they were doing before and what their capabilities are. We don't see many, if any, dredgers in their efforts.

Blackstone said:

Now that China has ended its dredging and island-manufacturing operations, it's a big mistake for Vietnam or anyone else to start/continue island building, because that gives cover for Beijing to come back with even bigger maritime civil engineering projects. Reality is it ends more on Beijing's terms than on Manila and Hanoi's.

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Do you seriously think that China's reclamation program was a knee jerk reaction to the other claimants actions? The reclamation that China undertook was massive and would require years of planning and organisation of resources to put in place. If China wanted cover, it can always find one just like with its reclamation effort. The narrative that we see often in this forum that China was only responding to others is simply echoing China's official statement but devoid of substance.

Given what China is doing on the ground, I don't see why Hanoi and Manila should not pursue their own reclamation effort.

joshuatree said:

Have to assess it in the context of what they were doing before and what their capabilities are. We don't see many, if any, dredgers in their efforts.

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Bring it if they got them. But don't complain is all I'm saying.

Brumby said:

Do you seriously think that China's reclamation program was a knee jerk reaction to the other claimants actions? The reclamation that China undertook was massive and would require years of planning and organisation of resources to put in place. If China wanted cover, it can always find one just like with its reclamation effort. The narrative that we see often in this forum that China was only responding to others is simply echoing China's official statement but devoid of substance.

Given what China is doing on the ground, I don't see why Hanoi and Manila should not pursue their own reclamation effort.

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Bring it if they got them, other than that go big or go home. It is that simple. Griping and moaning won't make your reclamation project magically up to par with China.

Equation said:

Bring it if they got them. But don't complain is all I'm saying.



Bring it if they got them, other than that go big or go home. It is that simple. Griping and moaning won't make your reclamation project magically up to par with China.

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Vietnam is quietly and progressively proceeding with their efforts. You are right, griping would not change the situation. As the saying goes "if you can't beat them join them". Unfortunately for the Philippines, it is so economically challenged that it can't afford to do anything other than complain.

Brumby said:

Do you seriously think that China's reclamation program was a knee jerk reaction to the other claimants actions? The reclamation that China undertook was massive and would require years of planning and organisation of resources to put in place. If China wanted cover, it can always find one just like with its reclamation effort. The narrative that we see often in this forum that China was only responding to others is simply echoing China's official statement but devoid of substance.

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You know I don't think China knee jerked it. But, that doesn't mean China's island manufacturing operations wasn't in response to actions by others. Whether you and your ilk like it or not, facts are facts, and they show China responded with mildness for years while others expanded military bases and airstrips.

Given what China is doing on the ground, I don't see why Hanoi and Manila should not pursue their own reclamation effort.

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How about because China can bring more to the ball game than all others combined? I'd say that's a pretty good incentive to stop provoking Beijing.