South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Brumby

Major
My view is Philippines has no legal standings in the ICJ, because the 9DL isn't sovereign territory boundary. Might be better for Beijing to announce a Chi-roe Doctrine in the 9DL. The rest of the world, especially China's maritime neighbors, might not like that any better, but at least there's no legal ambiguity.
If you take the view that the Philippines' objective is sovereignty resolution then I agree with you. However if you read into the Philippines' legal approach, then any favourable ruling will be damaging to China's claims and limit China's hand, effectively it will have the effect of throwing a spanner into the works. .
 

joshuatree

Captain
Well, this is rich, Manila is out to prove China's 9DL is "illegal." It takes mighty talent indeed to invalidate something that has never been officially declared or even described in detail.

It appears this would be the easy part as the tribunal can easily pass the judgement of "if China's 9DL means those waters within the lines are regarded as territorial waters", then yes, China's 9DL is invalid. Chances are, the tribunal will state that as principle of what UNCLOS stipulates. And the Philippines will spin that as some mega victory. But again, that's IF China regards the 9DL to be in that context. Even the US assessment already stated this scenario won't fly. But as the US assessment also stated, if the 9DL simply means a boundary to indicate claims to features within, then that's actually legal and the issue becomes a competing territorial claim to which UNCLOS has no authority to preside over.

What most Filipino media gloss over or miss is that their case is also asking to quantify all those features out there as merely rocks with only a 12 nm entitlement. I perceive their dance around the issue of sovereignty to give the tribunal authority by not asking to determine who owns each feature, rather no feature qualifies for an EEZ so their EEZ from the main Philippine islands overwhelmingly covers most of the waters. So the tribunal will probably declare it has authority over this request. But I highly doubt the tribunal will unanimously go with the Filipino argument.Taiping Island is entitled to an EEZ. If Taiping doesn't, none of the other natural islands will have one either, which I'm sure will rankle other claimants big time. With an EEZ from Taiping, what China has reclaimed or waters patrolled don't necessarily violate UNCLOS. Furthermore, Philippines' own action in 2009 by filing Scarsborough as a Regime of Islands with the UN contradicts this case's request. Clearly Scarsborough and the 12 nm around it is fully within 200 nm from the Philippines mainland. There is no need to claim ROI status if the intent wasn't to eventually claim Scarsborough having its own EEZ. So if something smaller like Scarsborough was going to be attempted to qualify for an EEZ, then Taiping being larger and with freshwater easily qualifies.

One Filipino commentator definitely sees the 9DL as not the main argument. But he failed to equate Taiping into the picture due to the One China policy which the UN adheres to.

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It’s a misconception – probably deliberately disseminated – that our suit is asking for the court to rule as illegal China’s so-called “nine-dash line,” a vague tongue-shaped dashed line on its maps, which declares practically the entire South China Sea as theirs, including our Kalayaan Island Group.

While it did mention that such nine-dash line is “invalid,” the Philippine case involves the argument that the Chinese can’t occupy what are merely “rocks,” which the suit, invoking UNCLOS provisions, called “submerged reefs with no more than a few rocks protruding above sea level at high tide.”

Paragraph 24 of our “Statement of Claim” submitted to the Court says: Even as these Chinese-held “features are ‘rocks’ under Article 121(3) of UNCLOS, China unlawfully claims entitlements to maritime zones greater than 12 nautical miles in the waters and seabed surrounding them, and wrongfully excludes the Philippines and other States from these areas.”

“Rocks” are in contrast to islands, like our Pag-asa Island, which UNCLOS gives a 12-mile territorial zone and another 12-mile contiguous zone. Besides, Aquino’s government argued, the entire Spratly island also falls within our mainland’s 200-mile exclusive economic zone around it, in which the Chinese-controlled reefs are located.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
It appears this would be the easy part as the tribunal can easily pass the judgement of "if China's 9DL means those waters within the lines are regarded as territorial waters", then yes, China's 9DL is invalid. Chances are, the tribunal will state that as principle of what UNCLOS stipulates.....
But China never made territorial claims, based solely on the 9DL, so how could the ICJ make any rulings? It's not illegal to put marks on a map. The worst ICJ can say is 9DL is ugly, makes China's neighbors nervous, and doesn't really look like a cow's tongue at all.
 

joshuatree

Captain
But China never made territorial claims, based solely on the 9DL, so how could the ICJ make any rulings? It's not illegal to put marks on a map. The worst ICJ can say is 9DL is ugly, makes China's neighbors nervous, and doesn't really look like a cow's tongue at all.

That's why I only said ruling on a hypothetical IF and the IF is if the 9DL represents territorial waters which there is no way given the features within can generate under UNCLOS. Will they make a ruling over a what if? Don't know, but I'm sure they will make commentary such as the ones you listed.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
If you take the view that the Philippines' objective is sovereignty resolution then I agree with you. However if you read into the Philippines' legal approach, then any favourable ruling will be damaging to China's claims and limit China's hand, effectively it will have the effect of throwing a spanner into the works. .
How about this scenario?
Philippines: your honor, please compel China to clarify the meaning of 9DL.

ICJ: China, what is your name? What is your quest? What is the 9DL?

China: your honor, 9DL is the holy hand granade of... oh wait! We opted out! So, ask us no questions and we'll tell you no lies.

ICJ: sorry Manila, we have no jurisdiction, so the only court that could help you is court of public opinion.

Philippines: that and $3.00 would buy us a cup of coffee.
 

advill

Junior Member
I like your so-called sense of "humor" Mr. Blackstone, but it's not going to be a laughing matter. The International Court of Justice is serious, experienced & un-bias in their decision for such claims. Let's wait for it's decisive opinion before jumping into any conclusion.
 

Brumby

Major
How about this scenario?
Philippines: your honor, please compel China to clarify the meaning of 9DL.

ICJ: China, what is your name? What is your quest? What is the 9DL?

China: your honor, 9DL is the holy hand granade of... oh wait! We opted out! So, ask us no questions and we'll tell you no lies.

ICJ: sorry Manila, we have no jurisdiction, so the only court that could help you is court of public opinion.

Philippines: that and $3.00 would buy us a cup of coffee.

I think it would be helpful if you understand what the Philippines is making in their legal submission. The effect is obvious if it is successful but the objectives are less clear to me. The best result would limit China's hand but it would not advance their own cause.
 

Brumby

Major
What most Filipino media gloss over or miss is that their case is also asking to quantify all those features out there as merely rocks with only a 12 nm entitlement. I perceive their dance around the issue of sovereignty to give the tribunal authority by not asking to determine who owns each feature, rather no feature qualifies for an EEZ so their EEZ from the main Philippine islands overwhelmingly covers most of the waters. So the tribunal will probably declare it has authority over this request. But I highly doubt the tribunal will unanimously go with the Filipino argument.Taiping Island is entitled to an EEZ. If Taiping doesn't, none of the other natural islands will have one either, which I'm sure will rankle other claimants big time. With an EEZ from Taiping, what China has reclaimed or waters patrolled don't necessarily violate UNCLOS. Furthermore, Philippines' own action in 2009 by filing Scarsborough as a Regime of Islands with the UN contradicts this case's request. Clearly Scarsborough and the 12 nm around it is fully within 200 nm from the Philippines mainland. There is no need to claim ROI status if the intent wasn't to eventually claim Scarsborough having its own EEZ. So if something smaller like Scarsborough was going to be attempted to qualify for an EEZ, then Taiping being larger and with freshwater easily qualifies.

I don't follow your reasoning on how Taiping island is connected to the present Philippines case. It might get messy down the road but it does not have an immediate bearing on the Philippines' submission. Can you please elaborate.
 

joshuatree

Captain
I don't follow your reasoning on how Taiping island is connected to the present Philippines case. It might get messy down the road but it does not have an immediate bearing on the Philippines' submission. Can you please elaborate.

Taiping's EEZ overlaps with the Philippines' EEZ. Filipino media had coverage on how their team of lawyers debated on whether to completely ignore Taiping (pretend it doesn't exist) in their case or to argue Taiping is merely a rock and not qualifying for an EEZ. Former outright won't fly so the case currently tries to argue it is a rock which is also disingenuous.

I doubt an objective court will agree to the Filipino argument that Taiping is just a rock so even if the court addresses a non-defined 9DL, nothing really changes out there because where China has been reclaiming is within Taiping's EEZ as well. And the Philippines can't question who owns Taiping in court because that would give the court no jurisdiction over the case.
 
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