South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Blackstone. You know better and have been warned about this before.

It's been a while so you are getting another warning...but if it happens again you will receive a suspension.
 

joshuatree

Captain
Is that more reclamation on the Vietnamese side?

2qs3r85.jpg
 

joshuatree

Captain
The left third of the island is a lot more barren than the rest, which is more evenly filled with greenery.

Not to mention the barren area looks like there is some sand being washed away and shallow pools of water being encircled by partial land, all characteristics of reclamation work we've seen in other pics. The right side of the island looks completely different. It would seem the left third of the island is new.

One thing I have noticed with the Vietnamese reclamation is that they use less dredgers so most of the filling material is shipped in from the mainland. And temples seem to be a landmark they would build on their larger features.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Folks, just a reminder.

We are not going to allow this thread, or the other SCS Threads s to devolve into a name calling, personal opinion discussion about the what some posters may view as dastardly ills that either side has or is committing, war drums, or nation bashing.

There is no warfare here. There is no breaking of diplomatic relations on either side...so the involved nations certainly are not going there.

There is disagreement and we can discuss the strategies on the two strategy threads on how they can respectfully address those disagreements.

But let's not call for warfare, lets not try and presume that one side or the other is entirely to blame, and lets not get into nation bashing on either side.

Our discussions on those threads can be held without that.

If they do not, if it breaks out, the threads will first be temporarily closed to cool down...but if it keeps up they will be closed and any members stepping over the line will receive moderation.

Thanks.

DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERATION.
 

advill

Junior Member
Never underestimated your friends or potential adversaries - including Japan's Navy. The Confucianism attributes are adhered & practised first in China and spread to Japan, South & North Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, & also by the Overseas Chinese communities. Besides being well versed with the Great Master Confucius's philosophies; a well known general Sun Tsu's (500 BC) strategies are also respected & studied by military forces (Western and Asian). Here are some Sun Tsu's strategies, presenty influencing China's military/naval thinking: (1) "Create something out of nothing". (2) "Lead away a goat in passing" - i.e. exploit weaknesses. (3) "Cross the sea under camouflage" - use all maritime vessels so as not to create suspicions - I don't think this needs to be explained in current South China Sea disputes. Well guys, we are not that ignorant after all.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Never underestimated your friends or potential adversaries - including Japan's Navy. The Confucianism attributes are adhered & practised first in China and spread to Japan, South & North Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, & also by the Overseas Chinese communities. Besides being well versed with the Great Master Confucius's philosophies; a well known general Sun Tsu's (500 BC) strategies are also respected & studied by military forces (Western and Asian). Here are some Sun Tsu's strategies, presenty influencing China's military/naval thinking: (1) "Create something out of nothing". (2) "Lead away a goat in passing" - i.e. exploit weaknesses. (3) "Cross the sea under camouflage" - use all maritime vessels so as not to create suspicions - I don't think this needs to be explained in current South China Sea disputes. Well guys, we are not that ignorant after all.

Don't underestimate the resolve of the Chinese, period.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
A somewhat over the top analysis on why ASEAN can't unite against China. The author's one sided remarks (in bold) strengthen the notion current US policy wonks are biased against China. Nevertheless, in the first sentence of the last paragraph, she correctly assessed ASEAN's future is tied to China's rise. What's left unsaid is that's why Vietnam and Philippines will get no real support from most of ASEAN, and why Malaysia wouldn't travel the same road to perdition as Philippines.

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China’s negotiations with ASEAN on a
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[4] are dragging into their thirteenth year. At the same time, China has undertaken a massive land reclamation campaign to change the status quo in the South China Sea, leaving
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[5] to lament ASEAN’s inability to form a united policy toward China.

Ambiguity about China’s rise is a “black sheep” in the integration of Southeast Asia. Although ASEAN plans to achieve the economic pillar of building a regional community by the end of 2015, integration on the political-security pillar has been slow, partly due to the ASEAN principles of non-interference and non-confrontational bargaining that slow consensus building. ASEAN’s continuation of the same policies towards China since the 1990s has been unsuccessful in keeping China from pushing the region toward instability and threatening ASEAN’s integration. For example, when China forced a confrontation with the Philippines over the
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[6]
only nine days before a round of Code of Conduct consultations in 2014, China showed it had little regard for ASEAN’s goal of a cooperative regional order.

While ASEAN lacks consensus on many political and security issues (China chief among them), ASEAN’s growing centrality in the Asia-Pacific demonstrates its continuing value for regional integration and institutionalization of dialogue. Through ASEAN, relatively weak states, like Laos and Cambodia, have aggregated power in the international system. Also, as champions of ASEAN highlight, the organization can help produce a stable regional order in a contentious part of the world, such as when it united behind the nonaligned movement during the Cold War.

Nonetheless, China has exploited divisions among ASEAN members and applied economic pressure, both positive and negative, to keep countries from coming to a
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[7] on maritime security in their own backyard. Moreover, weak leadership on political and security issues has left ASEAN without a united approach on China’s aggression in the South China Sea. This is a major reason why ASEAN remains divided on China—there is no leading nation to overcome economic, political, and cultural differences and forge an overarching consensus.

Leadership in ASEAN after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis has been absent or very weak. ASEAN lacks a leader like the EU has in Germany.
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[8] and
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[9] have provided limited leadership on economic issues, but Thailand’s ability to perform this role has weakened due to its internal troubles. The absence of a core leader, especially without strong internal mechanisms to mitigate differences among members, has been particularly problematic for security issues.

ASEAN’s lack of strong leadership has contributed to an environment in which many members have pursued different bilateral actions and policies towards China that are at odds with an ASEAN-centric approach to regional issues. A divided ASEAN has found its recent strategic environment shaped more by external interests than its own.

Without a leadership initiative on the part of one of ASEAN’s more neutral states, it is doubtful that ASEAN policy toward China will change dramatically. But does any ASEAN member have the potential to lead the organization, and by extension, create a consensus on China? A regional leader needs capacity (financial and human resources), internal commitment to undertaking a leadership role, and the buy-in of its regional and international neighbors. Jakarta remains the symbolic head, hosting the ASEAN secretariat, but Indonesia currently lacks the will to take a definitive leadership role.

ASEAN’s future is tied to China’s rise. With a range of political, economic, and military differences among ASEAN members, the organization needs a strong voice among member states to guide internal and external consultations, if its members hope to produce on ASEAN-centric approach to security issues. Without a committed and capable leader(s) on political-security issues, periodic eruptions of crises in the South China Sea could turn the status quo balance of power into chronic instability.

Amanda Conklin is currently working on Asian policy issues in the field of international affairs. She was Fulbright in Macau from 2012-2013. The views presented above are her own and do not reflect that of her employer.
 

advill

Junior Member
Yes, we know that ASEAN is not going to speak with one voice re: South China Sea disputes. Why?

(1) Only 4 ASEAN countries are direct claimants of the territorial waters.

(2) China's total power comes to play - that is the interplay of economic, political/diplomatic & military assertive strategies, that included the recent launch of AIIB.

However, one should never underestimate the US power of uniting the effected countries being being shoved aside by the Chinese in the territorial waters disputes in the South China Sea.

Japan may also join in cooperating militarily with the US & others in the region.

My favorite idiom:

Take the "owlish approach & avoid being an aggressive hawk to bully the doves".

Agree to disagree, & try to work out ways of promoting stability & progress in our region - the alternative is disastrous for everyone including China.
 
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