It's not exactly about China here, but probably the thread that get's the closest to the article.
It's a nice and little longer piece from Time. Russia seems to try to find it's spot in a changing world, not sure were to go. They want thing from the west regarding cooperation apparently bad enough that they are willing to hurt other relations a little, i.e. approve the last sanctions against Iran, on the other hand they want to be so independant from the west to make completely their own decision at times. So, a firm position on Iran, or just a lip service to these? There's really not much in between.
While Russia wants more reconition in the west, it can't really afford to get there by loosing influence elsewhere to China I guess, and at the same time they can't really afford another problen in the south with an Iran pissed of by Russia agreeing to sanctions.
So, S-300 SAMs? yes, no, maybe. Energy cooperation, yes ...
Is Russia's Backing of Iran Sanctions Starting to Fray?
By Simon Shuster / Moscow Thursday, Jul. 15, 2010
For a couple of weeks in June, it seemed like Russia's stance on Iran was finally coming into line with that of the U.S. President Barack Obama, in one of the biggest achievements so far of his foreign policy, had convinced Russia to support a new round of U.N. sanctions, approved on June 9, meant to stop Iran from building a nuclear bomb. [...]
On Wednesday,
Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko held a meeting in Moscow with Iranian Oil Minister Massoud Mir Kazemi, and afterwards Shmatko announced that
Russia was ready to deliver fuel and oil products to Iran. "The sanctions cannot stop us," he declared. And it is true:
the latest round of U.N. sanctions does not forbid fuel sales to Iran, but the unilateral sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe do. Russia's decision therefore still has a touch of defiance and seems aimed at demonstrating its independence from the West on the Iran dilemma. [...]
The following day, Russia took this initiative further by suggesting it
might still sell S-300 missile systems to Iran under an existing contract. [...]On June 18, about a week after the U.N. sanctions were adopted, Russia appeared to concede. "Moscow believes that the sanctions resolution clearly forbids the sale of the S-300 system to Iran," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Denisov told Russia's state news agency RIA Novosti that day. Later in June, experts from Russia's Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation also concluded that these weapons could not be sold to Iran under the new U.N. sanctions. The Israelis and the U.S. breathed a sigh of relief. [...]
"The final decision on signing or dropping the contract must be made by the President," [...]
At the same time, Medvedev realizes that sidelining Iran would come at a serious price, not least of all for Russia's budget. The
S-300 contract is worth around $800 million, and if Russia fails to honor it, Iran has said it would impose a penalty that experts estimate at another $400 million. The
Islamic Republic could also refuse to buy any more military products from Russia in the future, leading to an
estimated loss of up to $500 million per year, according to an investigative report published on June 30 by the daily newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta. The report also noted that China, Russia's emerging rival in the arms trade, would be happy to take its place.
On the security front, Moscow also has a lot to lose. Insurgents and advisers from Arab states are regularly caught in the mountains of the North Caucasus, the hub of the Muslim insurgency fighting to turn part of Russia into an Islamic caliphate. No evidence has ever surfaced of Iran financing these insurgents. But if it begins to count Russia as one of its enemies — as it had threatened to do in the lead-up to the June U.N. sanctions vote — experts say that Iran could throw its weight behind jihadis in Russia, just as it does in Israel for terrorist groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. Likewise in Central Asia, a patchwork of predominantly Muslim states, Iran could position itself against Russia as a rival for influence, particularly in Tajikistan, which shares strong cultural and linguistic ties with Iran.
"So if it wants, Iran has many ways of inflicting damage on Russia, of shifting the security landscape in Central Asia and the Caucasus in a way that could destabilize the region," says Fyodor Lukyanov, political analyst and editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs. "It has not yet done that, but if there is a radical change in relations with Russia, it can." Lukyanov says that Russia has already gone as far as it can in alienating Iran to please the U.S, and Obama will need to offer Russia some major rewards if he wants an even tougher stand on the nuclear issue. But with Russia now appearing to backpedal on its support for sanctions, such rewards might be necessary just to get the Kremlin to keep the promises it's already made.
ffOn the matter of using "expeditionary forces" (i.e., of attacking other states) there is a short quote from an ancient source that I find extremely profound, because it is so simple, and yet seems to explain quite a bit. It is from the Book of Lord Shang (Shang Yang, a minister of the Qin state somewhere around the 4th century BC.
