Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

SinoSoldier said:

Does the FC-31 need to match the J-20 in every aspect to be a worthwhile investment? All that is required is for it to offer some capabilities that the J-20 does not bear or to fill a niche (dimensional, financial, logistical) not touched upon by the J-20.

For instance, the F-35 offers specific advantages over the F-22 (including a smaller size, all-aspect EODAS, HMD, EOTS, and a presumably more powerful AN/AGP81 radar), but it would be controversial to claim the former as superior to the latter.

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F-35 is actually half a generation ahead of the F-22, and while it lacked F-22's kinematic performance, in most other way it is technically more ambitious and more advanced.

J-20 looks to me like an effort to combine advances made with F-35 with an airframe capable of close to F-22's kinematic performance. But J-31 does not look to me like it is half a generation ahead of J-20. If anything, it looks a much more conservative product than the J-20. It seems more like a speculative venture by the manufacturer to poach low to medium end foreign sales opportunity, and not at all backed by PLAAF.

FC-31 or J-31 is to me another prototype platform for the next advance 5th gen fighter by SAC. I believe they moving on to the next prototype after learning all they can with this one.

SAC will continue FC31 development for export orders.
In fact, they will double down, and produce a heavy fighter in the form similar to YF23 black widow using WS10 initially and switch to WS15 later.

YF23 has greater stealth than F22, which many believes has better than J20 due to canards.

Less agile but more stealth versus J20.

This SAC new plane will wait till J20 show its weakness in face US and Japan anti stealth radar and then PLA will need something more stealthy and that's time it will shine and replace J20.

Have you guys considered the possibility of combining the FC31 airframe with JF17 subsystems (or larger equivalences) and engines? SAC only have to develop/update and test the flight control software and voila, you have a stealthy version of JF17!!!

vincent said:

Have you guys considered the possibility of combining the FC31 airframe with JF17 subsystems (or larger equivalences) and engines? SAC only have to develop/update and test the flight control software and voila, you have a stealthy version of JF17!!!

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There's a reason the PLAAF isn't interested in the JF-17 so why would they be interested in a stealth version of the JF-17? A bunch of countries other than China are interested in the JF-17, though, so it makes sense that SAC believes those countries would also be interested in a stealthy JF-17. Hence no more J-31 but possible FC-31.

jobjed said:

There's a reason the PLAAF isn't interested in the JF-17 so why would they be interested in a stealth version of the JF-17? A bunch of countries other than China are interested in the JF-17, though, so it makes sense that SAC believes those countries would also be interested in a stealthy JF-17. Hence no more J-31 but possible FC-31.

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I think you are right.

Time will tell us if any of those nations pick up the 5th gen version (in essence) of the JF-17.

jobjed said:

There's a reason the PLAAF isn't interested in the JF-17 so why would they be interested in a stealth version of the JF-17? A bunch of countries other than China are interested in the JF-17, though, so it makes sense that SAC believes those countries would also be interested in a stealthy JF-17. Hence no more J-31 but possible FC-31.

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Of course PLAAF will not be interested in a stealthy version of JF17. Pakistan might, with the right price

I reckon the export market for a JF-17 class stealth fighter is bigger than for a J-10 class fighter.

Potentially that is every current JF-17 and Mig-21 operator.

It does have to come in at significantly lower cost than the J-10/F-35 and still offer adequate stealth, but it is possible.

I am not so sure about the export potential of the J-31...

Many think that the J-31 is a low-end stealth fighter that will suit many developing countries. However, how many developing countries can afford and are actually in need of a stealthy fighter?

Most developing countries that need effective weapons typically use them to battle domestic issues. These domestic issues are mostly in the form of low-tech rebels, which can be dealt with effectively with 3-4th gen fighters. Using stealth fighters to deal with foot soldiers with RPG's and machine guns is too much of an overkill.

advanced weapons like the J-31 need well-developed support infrastructure, such as early warning aircraft, radars, data link, etc, to achieve optimal potential. Most developing countries lack such support. So it would be waste of money on their part to invest I such advanced weapons.

And even if they have limited support, it would be an overkill to use these weapons against low-tech domestic issues, as I mentioned above. And the limited capabilities that they would be useless against more developed opponents with much much more advanced support structure. So I don't think many developing countries would be interested.

Stealth fighters are luxury toys. Why would anyone who is having trouble putting food on the table ever think about buying luxury toys... It's like coming up with a cheap version of Lamborghini and try to sell it to low-income people... Even you can afford to buy it, you won't have the money to keep it and maintain it...

SinoSoldier said:

Does the FC-31 need to match the J-20 in every aspect to be a worthwhile investment?

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Yes, because FC-31 is an inferior product otherwise.

SinoSoldier said:

All that is required is for it to offer some capabilities that the J-20 does not bear or to fill a niche (dimensional, financial, logistical) not touched upon by the J-20.

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The FC-31 doesn't bring new capability.

SinoSoldier said:

For instance, the F-35 offers specific advantages over the F-22 (including a smaller size, all-aspect EODAS, HMD, EOTS, and a presumably more powerful AN/AGP81 radar), but it would be controversial to claim the former as superior to the latter.

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F-35 has avionics that are a generation ahead of F-22. Not only is that not the case for FC-31, the FC-31 would likely have worse avionics compare to J-20. SAC has a habit of choosing suppliers only within AVIC, but these suppliers are known to be inferior to suppliers outside of AVIC.