The insider did not say that the FC-31 program was completely dead. He said "there is no more J-31, only FC-31". This implies that the FC-31 is still available for export. This has precedent in many land systems like the FK-1000 AA system, Type 85IIM MBT, PLZ-45, etc, which were not selected by the PLA but were put on the international market.
Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator
- Thread starter RedSky
- Start date
The insider did not say that the FC-31 program was completely dead. He said "there is no more J-31, only FC-31". This implies that the FC-31 is still available for export. This has precedent in many land systems like the FK-1000 AA system, Type 85IIM MBT, PLZ-45, etc, which were not selected by the PLA but were put on the international market.
Well, perhaps some other nation may pick it up then...but I would imagine they would have to be well enough off financially to be good for all the development still needed to bring it forward to even the prototype testing phases, and then beyond that to production.
It would have to be a very trusting nation on very good terms with PRC to finance the development of an aircraft by the PRC that the PRC would not use in its own service. PRC would gain tremendous leverage over that nation because the PRC itself would have put nothing at stake, while that other nation would have had to commit many billions, while all the key facility, expertise and faculty needed to make those billions pay would be under the control of the PRC. PRC could pull the plug at any time at the slightest hint of displeasure at the other nation with no loss to itself, leaving the other nation to eat the loss of its entire investment up to that point.
Exactly...agreed. Seems an unlikely scenario...but strange things happen sometimes.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
Good points, but I'd like to point out a few things.
The powerplant for the FC-31 is being finalized. It has already been test flown aboard the FC-31 31001 tech demonstrator and hence should be ahead of the WS-15, barring the possibility that flight testing of the latter has gone unnoticed by the public.
The FC-31 also serves as a potential replacement for the hundreds of J-7/J-8/Q-5/JH-7, which would be expensive to do with an all-J-20 fleet. Doing the same with 4+ generation aircraft is of controversial value in an age where China's immediate neighbors are acquiring the F-35.
I do agree, however, that the FC-31 project will continue, but not for the reasons stated. The program gives SAC a chance to prove that its engineering team and management are competent, and if it manages to bag a few international orders, domestic interest might even materialize.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
Does the FC-31 need to match the J-20 in every aspect to be a worthwhile investment? All that is required is for it to offer some capabilities that the J-20 does not bear or to fill a niche (dimensional, financial, logistical) not touched upon by the J-20.
For instance, the F-35 offers specific advantages over the F-22 (including a smaller size, all-aspect EODAS, HMD, EOTS, and a presumably more powerful AN/AGP81 radar), but it would be controversial to claim the former as superior to the latter.
The advantages which you describe that F-35 has over F-22 are probably not advantages that a notional navalized FC-31 would have over a navalized J-20, because they would be developed in the same time frame with likely the same variety of subsystem suppliers to source from.
In the end, I think that on balance, between the advantages and disadvantages of going for a navalized FC-31 vs a navalized J-20, the latter option probably was found through rigorous analysis and projections by the Navy (and possibly Air Force as well), to have significantly higher advantages and less disadvantages, compared to the former.
And these advantages and disadvantages are not only in regards to projected future performance and capability, but also cost, logistics, risk, and past performance of the two companies as well, all of which would have been compared to the Navy's own requirements and budget and preference before making their final decision.
I believe those are some reasonable assumptions to make, and it should be enough for us to entertain and accept why they did not continue with FC-31 as a domestic programme.
OT
That was just a matter of marketing. The Shah wanted to buy the most expensive fighter he could buy. For operations from land bases Tomcat is seriously over-designed, and so over weight
, but that does contribute to its long live.APG-77 has 1956 T/R modules compared to APG-81 with 1676 T/R modules, so this seems unlikely.