Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

Blackstone

Brigadier
We are seeing lots of pictures of two Raptors and two ThunderHogge IIs in formation, as well as four F-35s, and the two ship is still the preferred operating team for the F-22. So the FC-31 looks to be a very fine airframe, but it is rather small to carry all the goodies the Raptor carries, and lets not forget, this bird is in very early, early development, to figure it into your battle plans you are looking at least ten years out, and likely 15-20.

Master Kwai and I agree at least 90% of the time, but underestimate the Raptor at your own risk? really, the FC-31 has a long way to go to be a viable threat to the Raptor. In fact I would imagine the only way to be a threat will be to "eyes on the target", and a "gun solution".
Before we get ahead of ourselves, the F-22 is a combat proven aircraft, while the J-31 is basically vaporware. I'm not even sure the one flying sample rates as a capable technology demonstrator that shows full range of a 5th gen aircraft.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
Before we get ahead of ourselves, the F-22 is a combat proven aircraft, while the J-31 is basically vaporware. I'm not even sure the one flying sample rates as a capable technology demonstrator that shows full range of a 5th gen aircraft.

You are exactly spot on Stoney, and I would NOT put my last Benjamin on the line as to whether this bird will ever see the light of day in service. I think it would make a very decent Naval Fighter, but I can't say the Chinese Jockey's would prefer that to the J-15, in fact, I rather doubt they would, its too small, the J-15 is a big roomy, high performance bird!
 

vesicles

Colonel
I am usually an optimistic person, but I am very pessimistic about the future of the J-31. At this point, I don't see how the J-31 would ever enter service with the PLA. No matter how you look at it, the J-31 looks like a step child, compared to the golden boy of what is the J-20. It seems that the PLA is simply being polite and waiting for SAC to abandon the J-31 on their own. Once they lose their patience, they will tell SAC to "stop and move on".
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
I am usually an optimistic person, but I am very pessimistic about the future of the J-31. At this point, I don't see how the J-31 would ever enter service with the PLA. No matter how you look at it, the J-31 looks like a step child, compared to the golden boy of what is the J-20. It seems that the PLA is simply being polite and waiting for SAC to abandon the J-31 on their own. Once they lose their patience, they will tell SAC to "stop and move on".

Am I the only voice who believes otherwise?

What the 310 project is undergoing now is very akin to, if not exactly the same as, the X-35 program in the early 2000s. One or two technology demonstrators have been built, and although they do not validate or evaluate any subsystems to be absorbed into a notional future fighter, they at the very least prove that the supplier (SAC in this case) is capable of executing a 5th-generation fighter program, barring any funding issues. The quiescent nature of the FC-31 program may very well be attributed to the fact that the PLAAF/PLANAF has yet to decide if such a project should be pursued to its fruition, rather than issues with the project itself. Adding to this point are rumors that the PLA/NAF would finalize the tenders in 2016.

Hence, if the Chinese military chooses to adopt the FC-31, it will be developed into a fully-fledged aircraft and the project will be put on the front burner, with commensurate publicity soon following. If not, it will either be discarded or aggressively marketed for export (à la MiG-35).

My point is that the lack of progress, at least from the public eye, is reactionary to the PLA/NAF's decision, rather than vice versa.
 

vesicles

Colonel
My point is that the lack of progress, at least from the public eye, is reactionary to the PLA/NAF's decision, rather than vice versa.

The question is why the PLA is taking their sweet time to make the decision. If you look at the J-20, the PLA didn't even hesitate. In fact, most of their high profile projects are going smoothly, from small UAV's to big Shenzhou launchers to gigantic 001A. Yet, the J-31 came out not too long after the J-20 but is still in the limbo.

Except for the rumored second unit, which we have yet to see, there is virtually no movement whatsoever. Every once in a while, we get a few photos of the J-31 taxing or flying. There has been no change done to the unit whatsoever. In comparison, we see tons of changes to the J-20 whenever we get a new model. We know they are working on it. Is it possible that the J-31 is so perfect when it first came out that nothing can be done to make it better? Hardly. A likely situation: it is now so low on the priority list that no one bothers to even work on it.

It shouldn't be about the funding. With so many high profile projects going at the same time, it's hard to believe that adding one more would become so big of a burden that they have to slow it down.

One likely explanation is that the PLA simply doesn't like it. It still exists because the PLA is being polite and doesn't want to say it out loud.

Is it possible that SAC might eventually find some genius who might be able save it? It could happen... But the chance of that happening is slim. A genius might want to have a clean slate and design a new system instead of making changes to a failing system.

Frankly, my guess is that the J-31 still exists because some big head honcho at the SAC is using his significant political influence to keep it alive...
 
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Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
...and, they may be holding out the potential for foreign sales to keep it alive a well.

If it were really a serious part of a PLAAF high-low strategy with the J-20, we woul already have seen much more movement and progress on the aircrft.

Just the same, depending on price point and potential customers, they may still hold out that foreign sale option. And it does not rteally hurt them to hold onto it for that at this point either.
 

Lethe

Captain
It's an open question as to whether PLAAF even needs a smaller fighter to complement J-20 going forward. As for PLANAF, any requirement for J-31 likely depends upon the prospects for adapting J-20 to carrier operations.

Export market is certainly a possibility, but the prospect of sustaining 5G fighter development on the export market alone is dicey to say the least. They would need someone with deep pockets like the Saudis to sign on as a major customer.
 
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SinoSoldier

Colonel
The question is why the PLA is taking their sweet time to make the decision. If you look at the J-20, the PLA didn't even hesitate. In fact, most of their high profile projects are going smoothly, from small UAV's to big Shenzhou launchers to gigantic 001A. Yet, the J-31 came out not too long after the J-20 but is still in the limbo.

The key difference between the two programs, and one crucially relevant to our discussion at hand, is that the J-20 program was borne out of a PLAAF requirement (i.e. a military-sanctioned tender) while the FC-31 is an independent project by SAC. The J-20 program would have had access to PLAAF funding, among other luxuries, that the FC-31 program would not. The same principle could be applied to other big-ticket items, such as the 001A or Divine Eagle UAV.

Except for the rumored second unit, which we have yet to see, there is virtually no movement whatsoever. Every once in a while, we get a few photos of the J-31 taxing or flying. There has been no change done to the unit whatsoever. In comparison, we see tons of changes to the J-20 whenever we get a new model. We know they are working on it. Is it possible that the J-31 is so perfect when it first came out that nothing can be done to make it better? Hardly. A likely situation: it is now so low on the priority list that no one bothers to even work on it.

Lack of publicity does not necessarily imply that there is a lack of progress. Granted, the FC-31 seems to be on the backburner until the PLA makes its decision, but keep in mind that it has been increasingly difficult to gauge the progress of Chinese military projects in recent times. The J-11D, for instance, remained unknown to the public until it conducted its maiden flight. Same thing could be said for the Divine Eagle UAV, Sharp Sword, and a host of other platforms.

That being said, there are numerous rumors, as well as official statements from SAC itself, that an improved functioning prototype is being pursued.

It shouldn't be about the funding. With so many high profile projects going at the same time, it's hard to believe that adding one more would become so big of a burden that they have to slow it down.

Funding, au contraire, is a huge factor in the success of a military project. The FC-31 used funds directly from SAC itself rather than China's DoD, so it is definitely a burden for SAC. The YF-23, which supposedly out-performed the F-22 in kinematics, was canceled precisely due to lack of funds.

One likely explanation is that the PLA simply doesn't like it. It still exists because the PLA is being polite and doesn't want to say it out loud.

We cannot make that assertion solely based on a lack of progress. It would be unwise for a company to continue development of a project that its customers remain undecided upon, but that stagnation alone is not indicative of the customer's intentions.

Is it possible that SAC might eventually find some genius who might be able save it? It could happen... But the chance of that happening is slim. A genius might want to have a clean slate and design a new system instead of making changes to a failing system.

Frankly, my guess is that the J-31 still exists because some big head honcho at the SAC is using his significant political influence to keep it alive...

Two things stood out in your post: (1) why are you assuming that the FC-31 needs "saving", and (2) how did you arrive at the conclusion that it is a "failing system"?

At this point, we simply do not know what the PLAAF/PLANAF's feelings are regarding the FC-31, nor do we know its capabilities well enough to form our own assessment of its prospects. A lack of publicity regarding the FC-31's testing regime is by no means implicit of its rejection by the Chinese armed forces. Additionally, rumors claim that the PLAAF's decision will not come until late 2016.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
It's an open question as to whether PLAAF even needs a smaller fighter to complement J-20 going forward. As for PLANAF, any requirement for J-31 likely depends upon the prospects for adapting J-20 to carrier operations.

Export market is certainly a possibility, but the prospect of sustaining 5G fighter development on the export market alone is dicey to say the least. They would need someone with deep pockets like the Saudis to sign up as a major customer.

The PLAAF would operate the FC-31 the same (or in a very similar) way that the USAF would operate the F-35; it will be a multirole low-observable platform that would eventually supplant or complement the existing J-10s and J-16s.

As for the Saudis,
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