Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

Blackstone

Brigadier
Simple. Money.

The J31 is a private venture by SAC, after it lost the PLAAF next gen competition to CAC.

All the Chinese government resources went to CAC to finance the development of the J20 in the wake of that decision.

SAC are effectively on their own in this, and 5th gens are notoriously expensive to develop and build.

I think they are stuck in a catch 22 trap.

SAC doesn't have the financial power to fully fund the development of the J31 on it's own, no single company does. It needs investors to jump in with money to keep the programme running, but no one looks remotely ready to jump in and help fund the programme since they know its stuck.

I think SAC was banking on getting the same reaction as Sukhoi with the PAKFA. Get a prototype in the air, generate enough international interest that a client signs on straight away with enough financial commitment to get the programme moving, after which point it will generate enough momentum and further commitments to become self sufficient and viable.

Problem is that SAC isn't Sukhoi. Not only does it lack the history and brand of Sukhoi, it also doesn't have an internationally marketable product.

Sukhoi funded the PAKFA on the back of hundreds of Flankers sold world wide, as well as directly contributions from the Russian government, and then India.

I think SAC is bound by Chinese government agreements with Russia to not sell any of the Flanker variants it produces.

While it did sell hundreds of Flankers to the PLA, it cannot expect anything like the profit margins from those sales as Sukhoi could from international exports.

SAC also doesn't have much, if any, financial contribution from the Chinese government or international customer.

They pretty much spent all their retained profits from its decades of Flanker sales to the PLA on the first prototype (many they have enough for a second, but almost certainly not enough for more than that), and now just doesn't have the income and operating profit margins to fund it at anything like a normal pace.

They are probably piggy backing its development on other projects, since it cannot afford to fund a dedicated team. That's going to massively slow things down, since the teams will need to deliver on the programmes that are actually paying the bills as their first priority. So the J31, at this stage, is very much like an after hours hobby for SAC.
Lack of money and resources is another way of saying lack of interest or priority. China supported multiple Flanker varients while funding J-10, JF-17, JL-9, and L-15 projects; which is prove it will spend the money it thinks necessary. The fact only a single J-31 demo is flying around says a lot about how unimportant it is with the decision makers.
 

Engineer

Major
It was AVIC that provided the funding and continue support, not PLAAF. This should be obvious from the lack of official designation or insignia on 31001. Lin Zuoming himself even boasted about how the project is privately funded in front of national TV.
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AVIC sold state-owned assets and took money from more profitable enterprises such as CAC in order to bankroll SAC's venture.
 
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asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
That missile test from the J31? The missile ignited really quickly and pretty close to the aircraft and it was really fast

Was that real or a CGI? Didn't seem to have any time for drop down from the internal bay
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
FC-31 has received PLAAF funding. Numerous big shrimps have said this on Chinese forums. There are many reasons why it would take a couple of years to go from a demonstrator to a prototype. It took over 3 years to go from 2001 to 2011 and CAC had higher priority with J-20. FC-31's first real prototype is expected this year (which is about 3 to 4 years after 31001 had its first flight). Seems to be pretty reasonable progress to me.

Sorry, Tphuang, but when did this rumor first emerge? There has been little to no talk regarding it, and the general lack of media enthusiasm kind of makes me skeptical.

However, does funding meaning that the PLAAF has committed to purchase it? As far as I know, the current consensus is that the PLANAF is still evaluating its options for its naval 5th-generation fighter tender.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
Sorry, Tphuang, but when did this rumor first emerge? There has been little to no talk regarding it, and the general lack of media enthusiasm kind of makes me skeptical.

However, does funding meaning that the PLAAF has committed to purchase it? As far as I know, the current consensus is that the PLANAF is still evaluating its options for its naval 5th-generation fighter tender.

Well, I'm with TP on this one, and CAC would be most happy to be the LockMart of China.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Thanks for the info. Any indication on how much funding they received from the PLAAF? Was it a meaningful amount, or more a token political concession to keep them in business and prevent CAC from becoming the LockMart of China?
I'm not really sure how much. I don't know if you read the recent Type 346 radar post by someone who claimed to have worked at 14th Institute in the 90s. It really sheds some light on how China funds these new projects and the pitch fork fighting between different institutions to get research & development funding.

I think there is definitely a lot of incentive here to keep competition going between CAC and SAC.

Sorry, Tphuang, but when did this rumor first emerge? There has been little to no talk regarding it, and the general lack of media enthusiasm kind of makes me skeptical.

However, does funding meaning that the PLAAF has committed to purchase it? As far as I know, the current consensus is that the PLANAF is still evaluating its options for its naval 5th-generation fighter tender.
there has been many threads about 31002 and huitong posted it on his site, so I think the likelihood is pretty high this year. The question is obviously if PLAAF will purchase it. I'm really not sure. It's also possible that they get initial funding to show something that's viable and if PLAAF likes it, they will get more funding and then designation eventually.

Just to add to this a little bit, obviously nothing is fot sure and I could be wrong about most of it.

When J-20 first came out, I had assumed at that point CAC got the major prize and there was only one project on going. At that point, there were others that came out and said SAC also got funding but not an official designation. And then later on, the same people mentioned that SAC was still doing a lot of new projects and would come out with progress on stealth fighter jet, UCAV and another project in 2012. It turned out that FC-31 flew later that year and Lijian didn't come out until early 2013. I remember later reading that FC-31 was likely to be picked up. So if we do see a new prototype coming out this year, that will say a lot about this program.
 

jobjed

Captain
I'm not really sure how much. I don't know if you read the recent Type 346 radar post by someone who claimed to have worked at 14th Institute in the 90s. It really sheds some light on how China funds these new projects and the pitch fork fighting between different institutions to get research & development funding.

I saw that post as well but the replying comments were very sceptical of the post's authenticity. Do you think it's credible and if so, why?
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
I saw that post as well but the replying comments were very sceptical of the post's authenticity. Do you think it's credible and if so, why?
I'm really not sure, but I think his story does have the feel of being from someone authentic. I guess we will find out sometimes in the future.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I'm not really sure how much. I don't know if you read the recent Type 346 radar post by someone who claimed to have worked at 14th Institute in the 90s. It really sheds some light on how China funds these new projects and the pitch fork fighting between different institutions to get research & development funding.

I think there is definitely a lot of incentive here to keep competition going between CAC and SAC.


there has been many threads about 31002 and huitong posted it on his site, so I think the likelihood is pretty high this year. The question is obviously if PLAAF will purchase it. I'm really not sure. It's also possible that they get initial funding to show something that's viable and if PLAAF likes it, they will get more funding and then designation eventually.

Just to add to this a little bit, obviously nothing is fot sure and I could be wrong about most of it.a.

Interesting, I have not read that piece, any chance you could provide a link or help point me in the right direction to it? Thanks.
 
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